Safe Speed Forums

If this was the USA: You take the highest temperatures from the stations most affected by the "urban heat effect" and average from that.
If this was Russia: You take the highest temperatures from the stations most affected by the "urban heat effect" and average from that.
This is the UK: So you get the Hadley CRU to fiddle the figures to prove what you want.

But a small cold blip will not affect the average much. There are still 24 days remaining...so we could still have a "higher than average January temperatures" report (no matter what it was/is) (about 4-5 degrees centigrade)

Of course, the MetOff will already be calculating that highest January for 30 years average....as we type.

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The world runs on oil, period. No other substance can compete when it comes to energy density, flexibility, ease of handling, ease of transportation. If oil didn’t exist we would have to invent it.”

56 years after it was decided it was needed, the Bedford Bypass is nearing completion. The last single carriageway length of it.We have the most photogenic mayor though, always being photographed doing nothing

And I responded that "50% of part time meteorologists got it right" (as per your statement) isn't significantly better than those.

Looking back, I misunderstood your post when you said "It is vety much worse than a prediction based on the previous days weather", sorry about that. I think we can agree those 'part time meteorologists' aren't doing very well.


I'm not talking about 1 month in advance!
We're talking about 1-2 days in advance. I even gave an example of totally flawed prediction of (less than) three hours in advance. In case you think I cherry picked: yesterday the MET forecast no clouds over Heathrow for today without a hint of snow, now they forecast a continuous 12 hours of snow starting now - bit of a difference!!!

Next day weather predictions are easier than next month weather predictions, the latter being "(at worst) ... as bad as climate prediction"; weather (as I'm discussing it) is easier to predict than climate.

Extrapolation isn't a prediction or forecast; it is an extrapolation. Then you have to define "long-term": over the last 10 years (cooling?), 50 years (warming), since the medieval warming period (cooling), since the last ice age? (warming).

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Views expressed are personal opinions and are not necessarily shared by the Safe Speed campaign

Also the global average could be thrown off by a greater uniformity of temperature as previously colder areas would kind of cancel warmer areas. I think the notion of 'global averages' is flawed anyway. What is better is to look at long range temperature data from sources not in built up areas that have undergone the minimum amount of changes in the local environment and compare over time. I suspect this offers a different picture of 'global warming' which is why it hasn't been done.

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The world runs on oil, period. No other substance can compete when it comes to energy density, flexibility, ease of handling, ease of transportation. If oil didn’t exist we would have to invent it.”

56 years after it was decided it was needed, the Bedford Bypass is nearing completion. The last single carriageway length of it.We have the most photogenic mayor though, always being photographed doing nothing

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The world runs on oil, period. No other substance can compete when it comes to energy density, flexibility, ease of handling, ease of transportation. If oil didn’t exist we would have to invent it.”

56 years after it was decided it was needed, the Bedford Bypass is nearing completion. The last single carriageway length of it.We have the most photogenic mayor though, always being photographed doing nothing

Ah...,. I was going to rant over all of this.

OK .. about the averages and I am gonna be right "unscientific" here and go off my own actual experience based on my . fifty years on the planet .. and my own parents' and siblings' recollections and what the great geared up one said over tea and cakes last week... (err.. correction doughnuts)

Right..... cold winters as experienced by me and mine over past 30 or more years...

1. My parents both tell me of long cold winters in 1940.. 1942.. 1944.. all of which they say could have "undermined the war effort". This was verified to both me and Wildy and the rest of our family in a documentary series about the WAR YEARS IN COLOUR! (Shown on BBC1 about three years ago.. .. we can source or at least say where we have been informed of whatever we post.. It will probably be out there on t'internet You Tube or whatever site somewhere too ..

2. 1947 and 1948 respectively. These were mentioned on tonight's "NorthWest Tonight" and also recounted by my parents as a "eeee.. by'eck that were a bad'un" These two years are also well documented in history programmes as proof of even more fortitude by our armed services who made mercy flights to East Berlin to drop aid to them following the Blockades by the Soviets at the time.

3. 1952? Year my parents married in December and my big sister Mary was born 10 months later. They reported icy conditions and their wedding photos certainly show a "winter white wonderland"

4. 1956 .. this appears to also have been a winter of prolonged bitter cold (and OK .. snow is normal to Dalesfolk as it is to Cumbrian folk .. but all the same .. my parents say this was long and hard bitter winter

5. 1961 - 1962. I have clear childhood memories of my mother putting layers of woollies over me each time we went out to school and various places . A relative who lived in Sherbourne - Dorset .. ended up being cut off until Easter and there are clear records of food parcels having to be air-dropped at the time/

6. mid-60's-1976, I recall battling my way to school each year in the snow and I recall seeing the news and newspapers of the day recording the nasty weather in much the same "doom and gloom" of today. That was EACH year by the way. 1973 stands out as a cold year and the Miner's Strike/Electric Workers Strike/Three day week which led to the constant election battles between Harold Wilson and Edward Heath ..

7. 1979. The year of "Winter Discontent" and Callaghan's comment of "Crisis? What Crisis?" which led to his demise and Thatcher claimed his scalp. I seem to recall that everyone was on strike and a very cold winter as well.

8. 1981 and 1982. Absolutely freezing. I was in Manchester by then on clinicals and the ship canal was solid.. and the fountains around Manchester Uni campus were all frozen ..

9. 1986. Another freezing winter

10. 1987-1990 all recorded snow.. . lasting up to a week in the 'burbs .. My younger sisters were completing teacher training courses in Manchester around this time/probationary years and so on. I recall both worrying that they were late for work more than once within one week "because of the weather" and even gave up on a couple of occasions

11. 1994/1995 .. I seem to remember a deep arctic freeze around December 1994 and about 3 weeks of bitter cold in this very same period in 1995.

12. 1997/1998 .. wet winters.

13. 1999/2000/2004/2005/2006/2007/2008 ALL HAD SNOW LASTING MORE THAN A WEEK IN MID_WINTER and posts about the weather on this and the Pistonheads site would seem to provide proof that this COLD WINTER NORMAL WEATHER in those latter years was no figment of the imagination

14. IN FACT! In each year I can recall to date.. we have had some long spells of cold weather and if someone is going to claim that "over the past 30 years" we have had "mild weather"..... ..we've got hundreds of family photos showing us all "enjoying" and grumbling about the cold weather each and every year .. so somehow.. if they want to sell "climate change on past 30 years" to the general public out there .. they are perhaps skating on thin ice. They are going to have to come up with something better... or at least more convincing .. to the public at large.

_________________
If you want to get to heaven - you have to raise a little hell!

Smilies are contagious
They are just like the flu
We use our smilies on YOU today
Now Good Causes are smiling too!

KEEP SMILING
It makes folk wonder just what you REALLY got up to last night!

Smily to penny.. penny to pound
safespeed prospers-smiles all round! !
But the real message? SMILE.. GO ON ! DO IT! and the world will smile with you!
Enjoy life! You only have the one bite at it.

Ted,

I've read that our Elite have the capability to control the weather, I don't know if this is true, but it does seem strange that when a war is looming the weather becomes cold, and heavy winters and rain follow. Does the fact that the weather in Europe has become so cold, mean that a war is in the making? It does make you wonder what's going on with the weather.

Take care
Dixie

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Useless laws weaken necessary laws.

All very interesting, Moggie, but quite irrelevant to the debate on global warming
Colder winters are not incompatible with an increase in average temperature provided that the summers get hotter. In fact that is exactly what some proponents of GW are predicting.

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When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells
When I see a youth in a motor car I do d.c.brown

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The world runs on oil, period. No other substance can compete when it comes to energy density, flexibility, ease of handling, ease of transportation. If oil didn’t exist we would have to invent it.”

56 years after it was decided it was needed, the Bedford Bypass is nearing completion. The last single carriageway length of it.We have the most photogenic mayor though, always being photographed doing nothing

Tilt of earth's axis has increased by 26deg http://www.divulgence.net/

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When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells
When I see a youth in a motor car I do d.c.brown

Makes little difference.
Magnetic pole reversal soon....mass extinction follows ! (soon is an emotive term....computer predictions say it could be from anytime from now to then (ish))
I note that shooting the messenger continues in the uk:

Sigh.
Still, with so many sci_crooks involved in the warmist destroy_society_to_save_society, I suppose it was inevitable that it became essential to stop the leaks (of truth) (and continue the science of lies)

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The world runs on oil, period. No other substance can compete when it comes to energy density, flexibility, ease of handling, ease of transportation. If oil didn’t exist we would have to invent it.”

56 years after it was decided it was needed, the Bedford Bypass is nearing completion. The last single carriageway length of it.We have the most photogenic mayor though, always being photographed doing nothing

As an aside, over on the BNP website. The sugestion is being made that the reason why we are in such a mess as regards salt supplies, gritters etc is that the Government/Local authorities have spent to much time believing their own propaganda!

Sort of rings true!

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"The road to a police state is paved with public safety legislation"

It does. But few proponents of AGW actually claimed that the winters would get warmer.

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When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells
When I see a youth in a motor car I do d.c.brown

You mean disproportionately hotter (more hotter than the winters are getting colder), otherwise the two will tend to cancel or even make your statement irrelevant.

I could also say, with equal face-value validity: hotter summers are not incompatible with a decrease in average temperature provided that the winters get colder.


<cynic>Yeah, now that we've had some unexpectedly cold winters.</cynic>

Did you mean to say GW, or AGW instead? (the A makes a big difference)

Only "some"? Is this claim not part of the so-called 'consensus'?


I can't help but suspect many AGW proponents haven't made any such specific claim at all!
The more specific an unsound prediction is, the more likely it will be rumbled.


Show your workings
(not aimed at you DCB)

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Views expressed are personal opinions and are not necessarily shared by the Safe Speed campaign

I liked this quotation from George Mongbigot


Only problem is, he said that on 9 January last year.

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"Show me someone who says that they have never exceeded a speed limit, and I'll show you a liar, or a menace." (Austin Williams - Director, Transport Research Group)

Any views expressed in this post are personal opinions and may not represent the views of Safe Speed

As the world [very slowly] warms the disruption to ocean and atmosphere circulation means that we may/will/could-have/maybe/possibly have winters that are so cold that deaths could reach 6 figures.
After all, if we did not have the circulation patterns we have now, the temperatures could drop to -30C or lower....and if they continue to drop lower NOW...we could have major problems...since the grid is operating at near 100% now...oh, and gas supplies are coming from Europe now...no reserves..and the price is just about to go up...and the cross-channel [electricity] link is operating at about 98%...at the moment !! (two GW)(ish)
And next Wednesday the supplier [electricity] here has informed us that the supply will be off for 12 hours for essential repairs.
THAT will be fun....
Looks like the 230V petrol genny will be dusted-off.....

_________________
The world runs on oil, period. No other substance can compete when it comes to energy density, flexibility, ease of handling, ease of transportation. If oil didn’t exist we would have to invent it.”

56 years after it was decided it was needed, the Bedford Bypass is nearing completion. The last single carriageway length of it.We have the most photogenic mayor though, always being photographed doing nothing

Ah ..but they've always been a bit colder and warmer in the relevant seasons over there. The North German Plane .. gets the cold air from the Harz (and Siberia) rolling down the mountains .. which apparently causes the Elbe/Weser Rivers to freeze on a a regular basis

Last year and this year too.. Switzerland reached MINUS 30 and their clockworking public transport jammed to a frozen heap again.. (Back in 2006 they were complaining that the snow had not fallen in November and this meant the end of their ski-touring economy. Now they are making lots of dosh out of ice sculptures apparently (My father-in-law tells me they have sculpted an effigy of a speed camera and someone applied a blow torch to it to melt it before it pinged anyone

Hah.. Swiss are stereotyped as "dull types".. I tell ya.. still waters run deep and they are quite surprisingly speed-lovin lot in reality (I should know .. I'm married to one such lovely "lunatic at large"
)

But back to topic after the traditional chatty "aside quip n banter" (and umpteen ) for good measure ..

I think they can predict the weather accurately in Europe but have "island problems" as far as British Isles are concerned as we have all kinds of fronts coming in from the seas around us at any one time .. which makes us less predictable to some extent. (Arizona gets fronts rolling in and across the State from neighbouring Colorado/Nevada desert/California/Texas and Mexico - I must post up in CHAT about how I find life there before I go back as it's a very interesting adventure to us all and our kids seem to love it and Ithink I am well blessed on that one as Lukas and Zoe were the lease enthusiastic about leaving their pals here in all reality )

Oops.. I digress again .. SORRY. It's sort of topic related though.

But .. we've always had COLD weather year on year .. which has lasted for days and even weeks throughout the past 30 and more years which all records and photos testify to. Thus .. if the lentil munchers/muesli munchers/Mongliblet or Mongerbil fans wish to convince otherwise .. then they are up against personal experiences and PHOTOS and NEWS and NEWS FILM FOOTAGE which would appear to contradict the claims of "30 years of mild winters" or even "all seasons seeming the same"

Admittedly .. sometimes cloudy skies as constant seem to support some prophecy in the Book of Revelations that "



as


But we are nowhere near that stage ..(and the envagelistic doom and gloom cults have it wrong ) BUT it will happen when the Sun burns itself out some millions of years after our generations' stewardship of the planet per some computerised model as reported with "Schadenfreudenesque" journalese in the tabloids and t'internet blogsites That's when life will cease as the Earth does need the Sun to sustain life after all.

But then .. if the world is "hotting up" oer a cycle or even a man made enhanced cycle - then those who firmly believe we evolved according to circumstance will have to accept that we will evolve accordingly to survive the changes to our planet or those of us who have the "survival gene and not the politically correct "lentilist cell" will Imagine this.. Jezza will still be driving a 4x down a mountain after the Apocalypse Told ya.. the "right ones will survive .. but will it be

.

If we were created by some Divine Being - then we have little chance of "evolving"

In short then.. we all ..humans and animals/insects/plants alike .. evolve and adapt to survive against the odds chucked at us as constant.. .

Hmmm.. Methinks the Green wellies believe in God more than we do as "practising Catholics" (We just like the tradition and colour.. it does not mean we swallow all the Priest says.. )

OK .. so this post is me "trying to be funny to raise a smile.. and if you do smile .. please send Claire a quid at the same time you sponsor a polar bear (who per the advert on telly will send you a handwritten letter.. apparently But before you do.. think of what became of Berlin Zoo's Knut.. ... and decide which is the better value for money.. your safety or a vicious BABY SEAL eating hunter..
I mean .. you really do have to think of the CHILDREN

Yep.. I have me cynical hat on here and not me "toe the line one" And yes.. the controversy is deliberate and a bit "tongue in cheek" perhaps.


I also had to have an excuse for smiley/acidic quality "abuse" on the basis that we need to raise "good cause" cash from around the clan who read us here. I expect they will hammer me on this in fines on me.

Oh.. I will sponsor a polar bear maybe... some time.. .. wayyyyy in the future..

OK .. so this post is perhaps of the "quirky banter genre" .. but sometime the truest words are said in gest and that's what scares my wife about me most.

_________________
If you want to get to heaven - you have to raise a little hell!

Smilies are contagious
They are just like the flu
We use our smilies on YOU today
Now Good Causes are smiling too!

KEEP SMILING
It makes folk wonder just what you REALLY got up to last night!

Smily to penny.. penny to pound
safespeed prospers-smiles all round! !
But the real message? SMILE.. GO ON ! DO IT! and the world will smile with you!
Enjoy life! You only have the one bite at it.

No I meant GW. Analysis of how the climate is changing is a quite separate study from that attempting to explain why it is changing.

_________________
When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells
When I see a youth in a motor car I do d.c.brown

:rotfll:

Skating ain't a "primeval game" nor or any winter sports. Wildy was watching "Dancing on Ice" last night and she agrees 100% with the great Chris Dean that this is a very dangerous sport. (Wildy was in the Speed skating team for her Uni in her "salad days".. played ice hockey at national level at one point in her youth and can do all the "twiddly things" as alpine sports were on her school Sports curriculum whereas we played rugby.soccer.. cricket. athletics/tennis .. hockey.. lacrosse.. instead...being British YORKSHIRE

But he's wrong. It's NOT rare. I am one odd ball by modern standards in that I

1. belong to a large family .. paternal side had 11 siblings (lots of Uncles/Aunts/ COUSINS) and maternal side had 9 siblings (lots of Aunts/Uncles/COUSINS)

2. All of these people have histories.. stories to tell of their personal experiences.. (the most poignant being my Uncle Jack (My dad's oldest brother) in the War who was shot in the hand saving a young woman from an air raid attack.. to getting wounded in another battle .. to serving with the Allies in a war torn Berlin after the war..
(Old Jack keeps telling me that those shots in the movies actually happened and were based on real life anecdotes by his generation "who really got to know what war means to family lives - on each side of the coin"
and one Great Uncle Jim who died one minute before Armistice in the First World War.. he was shot in the trenches just before "Cease Fire"

3. I GET TO THE POINT ... I am saying that ACTUAL AND REAL LIFE human experience counts and that all who have experienced life .. and WINTERS over the years will take a lot of convincing about "climate change based on weather patterns over past 30 years and a computer model based on human programming" when they have all lived through harsh winters within their life times of experience.

4. I know all about real life experience of NASTY. I nearly lost my beloved wife in 1990. I almost lost her just recently too.. and on each occasion I pay tribute to my fellow medical colleagues who fought with us both to save her REAL LIFE tastes of Nasty linger on the tastebuds for an eternity .. and it's why we say EDUCATE all to keep themselves safe instead of promoting wishy washy poilicies which help no one but serve only to make the politically correct inadequates "feel good about themselves"


Cynical? Moi? You bet I am! and I make no apology for being so..

_________________
If you want to get to heaven - you have to raise a little hell!

Smilies are contagious
They are just like the flu
We use our smilies on YOU today
Now Good Causes are smiling too!

KEEP SMILING
It makes folk wonder just what you REALLY got up to last night!

Smily to penny.. penny to pound
safespeed prospers-smiles all round! !
But the real message? SMILE.. GO ON ! DO IT! and the world will smile with you!
Enjoy life! You only have the one bite at it.

Ah.. but on the topic of hot summers... (already proven by personal experience of real life that winters have been pretty darned cold over the years .. )



Each year .. even when flaming June and sizzling July have been but "damp squibs" we've had a week or two of HOT blazing ferocius and even oppressive sun.

I recall summers in particular as my birthday happens to be in July.. along with a couple of my siblings .. and our three eldest .. with my wife being an August babe.

Thus .. we tend to recall summers .. and birthday bashes..

I recall various hot summers from boyhood .. especially my teenage ones where I'd mess around with me mates on the long evenings .. riding our bicycles

I seem to recall the 70's summers as always being hot in early June.. just as we sat our Summer Term/End of Year exams and the weather breaking as soon as these were over and we had hols

I recall 1970's July as being very cold as I had to wear a woolly jumper or two on my birthday. (it was blisteringly hot during term time though ). I seem to recall 1969 as having a heatwave during our holidays in Cornwall.

1971-1973 .. as I recall .. were the normal mix of cloudy dull ... with 1974 breaking into weeks of very hot weather.. and 1975? I seem to recall the press declaring the country to like "India in the Monsoon season" as we had heavy rain at night and blistering hot sunny days from June- September.

1976 as we know stands out as prolonged heatwave of relentless ferocious and oppressive sun from miud June to September.

1977-1981 - all dull .. cloudy and damp summers as testified by our photo album.

1982? Warm heatwave throughout July/August .. interspersed with normal thunderstorms etc.

1983-84 also hotting up .. leading to a sustained month of unbroken sun in 1985 and ending the cycle with a relentless heatwave lasting May- end July in 1988. (I recall listening to the weather forecast with a groan that we had "yet another day of ruddy sun" and hospitals are not that pleasant in a heat wave with no air conditioning.

There then followed a couple of years of WET .. and then the heat up cycle began again .. and we had the very uncomfortable 1995 heatwave which ran from early June to end August .. with the odd shower.

We then had a couple of damp squib excuses for a summer until 2001 .. which led to 2003's epic and 2006's hot blast. But none of these compared to 1976 as each of these did have a weather break for thunderstorms which 1976 never did.


Source? our own family photo albums showing our very normal family lives and our various summertime birthday bashes and various newspaper cuttings and other internet archived materials which can be googled for very easily

Thus.. back to my point .. finally..

If the green wellies want to convince Joe the average bloke in the street about global warming being measured against the weather patterns of the past 30 years ... they are going to have to do a lot better as personal experiences for all reflect the past 30 years as being "naturally cold and wet in the winter" .. to "naturally warm and wet in the summer" with the occasional extreme once or twice per decade .. and these appear to show a normalish pattern when taken back further to the 1850s-1960s .. which means perhaps that the earth just may be going through its own natural evolution? After all .. the planet was not created by God.. it evolved and continues to evolve .. along with all its life forms.. And let's not forget that the computer model these gloom merchant predictions are based on works to a programme .. designed by man and is thus not flawless.

(Ah.. the Pope will now excommunicate me for "blasphemy" )

_________________
If you want to get to heaven - you have to raise a little hell!

Smilies are contagious
They are just like the flu
We use our smilies on YOU today
Now Good Causes are smiling too!

KEEP SMILING
It makes folk wonder just what you REALLY got up to last night!

Smily to penny.. penny to pound
safespeed prospers-smiles all round! !
But the real message? SMILE.. GO ON ! DO IT! and the world will smile with you!
Enjoy life! You only have the one bite at it.