civil engineer wrote:
It'll all sort itself out,
...
as fuel reserves deplete, fuel will become more expensive, alternatives will become more attractive and so on and so on.
It is open to debate. Some people believe this will happen, some believe demand is inelastic and cannot easily react to price changes. My personal belief is that demand
is relatively inelastic, and the price can go up a lot without that much effect on demand, and when demand is curtailed that will bring its own serious problems, even though oil supply and demand might be evened out.
Gatsobait wrote:
Yes, there are limited quantities of fissile material that can be used to generate power, but if it turned out that the actual quantities were good enough for a few thousand years the problem would not be an immediate one.
I've seen a figure of 100 years suggested for how long they would last if we replaced our current usage of other fuels with nuclear fission. But in any case, even if it would last a few thousand years, wasting it now could have disastrous consequences in future years, even if we won't personally be around.
Gatsobait wrote:
For example, imagine if the world only had one energy supply which would run out in a century with normal use, but could also be used to develop a long term replacement at the cost of running out twice as fast. Conservation would not be the answer in that situation since it would only be putting off the day when we freeze in the dark. The better option would be the increased, even if apparently profligate, use of the existing resource in the creation of a new one.
The key point here is that you are assuming that the profligate use is contributing to the development of a solution. If someone takes their car to the shops when they could easily walk, how is that contributing to the development of the power source of the future? That is why conservation is so vital, because we don't know how much we will need to develop that future power source, I think there is actually a very reasonable argument for restricting the use of our precious resources for activities specifically aimed at devloping long term viable power sources.
Gatsobait wrote:
However, when we have such an alternative to oil based transport it is likely if not certain to still require roads, and roadspace itself is also a resource.
But if having more roads causes us to run out of oil before we have a viable replacement, we'll have a lot of useless roads, and we might have used up oil that could have powered a development programme that would have succeeded.
Gatsobait wrote:
I don't think it's accurate to say that increased road use inevitably follows road construction.
Experience says it is.
Gatsobait wrote:
It can, but again there are limits. Population is one - we can't drive more than one vehicle at a time, and even if we could as far as private transportation goes there is no need to be able to do so.
Have you seen what is happening to the global human population? Are roads less congested now than at any time in the past, despite us having more capacity than ever before?
Gatsobait wrote:
Time is another - we can choose to commute longer distances, but there are only 24 hours in a day
This is the whole point - more roads lets you commute longer distances in the same time. People are commuting further than ever before.
Capri2.8i wrote:
That was true until fairly recently - for every barrel of oil we used we 'found' a new one. However, we are now only finding 1 barrel for every 7 we use. Still plenty enough to keep us going, but new reserves are currently quite elusive.
Actually, you need to say "finding", really, as the OPEC nations are only allowed to sell at a certain rate compared to their stated reserves, so it is widely believed that they invent non-existent reserves to allow them to keep selling at the rate they want to. I wouldn't be surprised if they were saying they have decades of oil left on the day they pump the last drop.