basingwerk wrote:
That's right, and it may be less than 10 years. Pay as you go pings heavy mileage users the most, so many light users will want this system to avoid high charges. Heavy users won't want it, but light users will not subsidise them any more, so the cost of unmetered insurance will rise. As it goes up in price, it will become rarer.
The huge problem with that is that risk tends to become lower with experience. The highest mileage drivers quickly gain that experience and so should present the lowest risk. Also, I suspect that drivers who do the highest mileages tend to use the safest roads (motorways and arterial routes) for a much larger proportion of their driving than do low-mileage drivers. So, pay as you go would have the lowest-risk drivers paying the most for insurance and so subsidising the highest-risk groups -- which can't be fair and certainly flies in the face of your later post:
basingwerk wrote:
Government is notoriously bad at implementing services. Insurance covers the risk you represent to the community so it is right that high risk users pay a lot, and low risk users pay a little. One way to get cheaper insurance is to pay as you go. That way, you can build up a low-risk reputation over a period of years of low mileage, and get cheap insurance later.
Under PAYG, whatever you pay you most definitely would not be paying proportionate to the risk you represent to the community. Even under the present system, you don't pay proportate to the risk you represent to the community, you pay proportionate to the risk you represent to the insurance company, which is not the same thing. This means that someone who has had years of accident-free motoring could find their low-risk status demolished by an incident for which they were not to blame but where cost of the loss could not be recovered from the culprit. For example, the classic car-park shunt or an uninsured driver.
FWIW, I don't agree that high-risk drivers should pay more for
third-party insurance than everyone else. There should be a compensation scheme to replace third-party insurance and that should be centrally funded. As much as I dislike Paul's idea of funding such a scheme through increased fuel duty, IMO it is very much preferable to the current cartel. At least that way people would not be penalised in no-blame situations and existing laws would cater for the culprits where they could be apprehended.