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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 01:31 
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Final Warning
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Joined: Fri Oct 26, 2007 23:59
Posts: 280
Pete317 wrote:
hjeg2 wrote:
1. Is that actually a fact though?

Fundamentally so. The greater the density and/or degree of hazards, the greater the inherent risk of accidents


But I think the point here is perhaps a slightly counter-intuitive one. If there is a greater perceived risk of accidents then people will drive slower and more carefully, so you end up either not getting the accidents or if they do occur they are less serious. But when people think that it is safe to drive fast then when accidents do occur they are much more serious.

Pete317 wrote:
Quote:
3. So when they do crash the results are worse.

That does not necessarily follow. More to the point though, you haven't shown that there are not far fewer accidents on such roads and, if so, how this could possibly be - seeing that the inherent risk is very much lower.


See above about the counter-intuitiveness.

Pete317 wrote:
Quote:
4. But then you are generally less likely to have those accidents if you are going slower, for example overturning your car.

Not necessarily.


But generally.

Pete317 wrote:
Quote:
I certainly haven't read it and I have no intention of doing so either. But appendix H is one part that I have had a look at.

Then you'll know that, with all the caveats given about paucity of suitable data, systemic problems, assumptions that have to be made, etc, that the results are inconclusive at best.


But this comes back to the question that I asked Odin: what would you actually accept as proof?

Pete317 wrote:
As an aside, did you read the bit (page 111) about figures from 600+ red light cameras being lumped together with those from fixed speed cameras?


Not yet.

Pete317 wrote:
Quote:
But we then get back to what I said to Odin: But what exactly would count as proof in your eyes?


What would count as proof that Santa Claus exists?
What would count as proof in your eyes that speed cameras don't live up to their promise?


A similarily detailed report as this one with negative figures.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 08:13 
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Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 18:50
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HJeg, just a very quick one, the important point you raised:

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The report is basically saying that speed cameras have cut the number of fatal and serious collisions. What they are saying is that the number of FSCs is lower than would have been had the case had the cameras not gone in.


This is the point I am trying to make, the report doesn't anywhere say that the accidents would not have reduced with no cameras going in. It reports that accidents were lower, but does not seek to proove the link. At no point are other safety features explored, which as I have previously stated are more likely to be at the root of any improvement.

One has to be already convinced that the cameras work to believe that the report prooves the link. If you do not take the "speed kills" mantra on face value like myself, then it prooves nothing.


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 01:32 
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Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2005 18:54
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Location: Cumbria
Yes, at the very least, they ought to look at the trend over the last "x" years (where "x" is as big a number as possible) and then ONLY consider reductions over and above those that were already occurring before!


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