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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 00:13 
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Quote of the day:
Mr Hammond wrote:
And the current limit has lost its legitimacy.

:clap:


Brake, the anti-motorist lobby, have done their usual thing by claiming that an increase of limit will automatically result with an increase of casualties.
I might remind the reader that Sleep Related Crashes account for about 25% of all fatal motorway accidents, rising to about half of all crashes (A roads and motorways) during the small hours* - the time when the increased limit could be utilised. Reduced journey times results with less fatigue; reduced boredom results with less fatigue - a double whammy!
Significantly, fatals resulting from those Sleep factors are much more frequent than 'exceeding the limit', so how can anyone possibly claim that an increase of limit will result with more fatalities?

*(“Road Safety Research Report No. 52, Sleep-Related Crashes on Sections of Different Road Types in the UK (1995–2001)” ).

I should also point out to the nay sayers that the increase of limit need not force drivers to drive faster; so worries about cost increases are moot.

I think a lot of enforcer and anti-motorist types hate to see the limit increased, after all, less drivers would be 'exceeding the limit', thus the contributory factor of 'exceeding the speed limit' would actually become even less significant within the casualty stats. Hence speed enforcement wouldn't need to factor quite so highly on the agendas of those lobbies (and partnerships) that are so obsessed with speed.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 07:46 
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Cynic that I am, I see this as a way to introduce average speed and ANPR cameras on motorways between junctions.

You have the consultation which agrees with the 80mph limit "provided it is strictly enforced". The Government agrees and puts in all the camera systems. You now have a huge spying system to keep track of everyone for road pricing. Toll motorways? No problem sir.

I'd quite like to keep the existing system where the limit is 70mph but nobody enforces it. At least I can travel at night without cameras watching my every move.

At least the logic is consistent across different modes of transport. HS2 is required to save people's time to boost the economy. The same applies to long car journeys.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 09:42 
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Steve wrote:
...I might remind the reader that Sleep Related Crashes account for about 25% of all fatal motorway accidents, rising to about half of all crashes (A roads and motorways) during the small hours* - the time when the increased limit could be utilised. Reduced journey times results with less fatigue; reduced boredom results with less fatigue - a double whammy!
Significantly, fatals resulting from those Sleep factors are much more frequent than 'exceeding the limit', so how can anyone possibly claim that an increase of limit will result with more fatalities?

*(“Road Safety Research Report No. 52, Sleep-Related Crashes on Sections of Different Road Types in the UK (1995–2001)” )....

The report says this
"Overall, 17% of road traf?c crashes (RTCs) resulting in injury or death were sleep
related. Proportions varied between 3% and 30%, depending on the road type"
It also says that crashes due to speed were 33% of the total, but let's ignore that eh?
Importantly what the report does not say is that sleep related crashes are reduced by increases in speed because of stimulation of the driver. I have seen no reports that say stimulation of a driver by speed increases is beneficial. Indeed with 33% contribution of speed, increasing speed to "stimulate the driver" would be counter productive, introducing more speed in a system of traffic that already has speed in 1/3rd of collisions would be disastrous.
The speed as a systematic beneficial stimulant in driving situations is your own invention and appears to have no notable supporter.

Steve wrote:
I should also point out to the nay sayers that the increase of limit need not force drivers to drive faster; so worries about cost increases are moot.

I think a lot of enforcer and anti-motorist types hate to see the limit increased, after all, less drivers would be 'exceeding the limit', thus the contributory factor of 'exceeding the speed limit' would actually become even less significant within the casualty stats. Hence speed enforcement wouldn't need to factor quite so highly on the agendas of those lobbies (and partnerships) that are so obsessed with speed.

I agree, I don't believe it will "force" people to go faster but may encourage many to do so.

I am ambivalent about a speed limit increase on the motorway but do expect to see an increase in death and injury but I am not ambivalent about that. There is already much evidence that demonstrates the result of speed limit increases, if the government want to experiment with lives then they have the responsibility to shoulder the outcome; that's why we didn't vote for them after all.
The notion of enforcing a new 80mph speed limit at +10% + 2mph is not acceptable, IMHO, a 90mph speed limit, we all know the ACPO speed enforcement threshold sets the speed limit, should not be the result of the raising of the limit therefore I welcome the government saying that consideration will be made for strict enforcement. Perhaps 84mph will be the new limit.
If there is a systematic rise in death and injury on the motorway after the rise in the limit I do hope those who sponsor it have the shoulders and guts to take the responsibility for any unwelcome outcome.
I predict the serious injury and deaths will increase at expected and well proven rates; why wouldn't it? Still, if the economy benefits from a saving of 8.5minutes for every journey of 80 miles then all of us still left alive will be laughing.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:35 
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Your wording betrays your bias Greenshed; you quote the report authors in their description "sleep related", but then take it upon yourself to categorise "due to speed".

As you're still surfaced, would you care to address some of the other points you're currently avoiding, or where you have been proven wrong, or are you not man enough to admit your mistakes?

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:33 
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See new thread here : Ministers increase motorway speed limit to 80mph after ruling that motorists driving over 70mph are 'perfectly decent people'

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 12:32 
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malcolmw wrote:
Cynic that I am, I see this as a way to introduce average speed and ANPR cameras on motorways between junctions.

You have the consultation which agrees with the 80mph limit "provided it is strictly enforced". The Government agrees and puts in all the camera systems. You now have a huge spying system to keep track of everyone for road pricing. Toll motorways? No problem sir.

I'd quite like to keep the existing system where the limit is 70mph but nobody enforces it. At least I can travel at night without cameras watching my every move.

At least the logic is consistent across different modes of transport. HS2 is required to save people's time to boost the economy. The same applies to long car journeys.




I tend to agree. The last thing we need is more cameras. They have ruined the M25 and other m/ways. At least on the rest I am usually left alone to ignore the 70mph within reason.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 12:40 
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DoktorMandrake wrote:
malcolmw wrote:
Cynic that I am, I see this as a way to introduce average speed and ANPR cameras on motorways between junctions.

You have the consultation which agrees with the 80mph limit "provided it is strictly enforced". The Government agrees and puts in all the camera systems. You now have a huge spying system to keep track of everyone for road pricing. Toll motorways? No problem sir.

I'd quite like to keep the existing system where the limit is 70mph but nobody enforces it. At least I can travel at night without cameras watching my every move.

At least the logic is consistent across different modes of transport. HS2 is required to save people's time to boost the economy. The same applies to long car journeys.




I tend to agree. The last thing we need is more cameras. They have ruined the M25 and other m/ways. At least on the rest I am usually left alone to ignore the 70mph within reason.

Systems exist that can log vehicles on and off at any junction so can time every vehicle journey.

Strict enforcement of the 80mph speed limit can be easily achieved. :wink:

If that was implemented the a newly introduced 80mph speed limit wouldn't be the new 90mph speed limit that it is headed for.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 16:02 
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I knew it. It was so obvious: greenshed, our resident speed obsessed camera man, who I know has an easily provable conflict of interest in this area, has responded with more misleading responses.

GreenShed wrote:
Steve wrote:
...I might remind the reader that Sleep Related Crashes account for about 25% of all fatal motorway accidents, rising to about half of all crashes (A roads and motorways) during the small hours* - the time when the increased limit could be utilised. Reduced journey times results with less fatigue; reduced boredom results with less fatigue - a double whammy!
Significantly, fatals resulting from those Sleep factors are much more frequent than 'exceeding the limit', so how can anyone possibly claim that an increase of limit will result with more fatalities?

*(“Road Safety Research Report No. 52, Sleep-Related Crashes on Sections of Different Road Types in the UK (1995–2001)” )....

The report says this
"Overall, 17% of road traf?c crashes (RTCs) resulting in injury or death were sleep
related. Proportions varied between 3% and 30%, depending on the road type"

That is not at odds with the summary I gave, referring specifically to: firstly motorways; secondly time of day.
Your point here, whatever you thought it was, is redundant.

GreenShed wrote:
It also says that crashes due to speed were 33% of the total, but let's ignore that eh?

Let's not ignore that what you are responding to was referring to 'exceeding the speed limit' - which does not account for anywhere near 33% of fatals.

GreenShed wrote:
Importantly what the report does not say is that sleep related crashes are reduced by increases in speed because of stimulation of the driver.

I didn't say or imply that it did.
I merely have a mechanism of how fatals could actually be reduced. It is logical that the factor of fatigue will be reduced - if traffic speeds really were to increase (as opposed to legalising current behaviours).

You can’t brush this one off so easily. The features of motorways make them the most prone to the effects of fatigue.

GreenShed wrote:
The speed as a systematic beneficial stimulant in driving situations is your own invention

Indeed

GreenShed wrote:
... and appears to have no notable supporter.

The same could be said for Bias On Selection (that topic you keep avoiding), yet your implied logic doesn't make my reasoning, or the significance of, any less valid.

GreenShed wrote:
The notion of enforcing a new 80mph speed limit at +10% + 2mph is not acceptable, IMHO, a 90mph speed limit, we all know the ACPO speed enforcement threshold sets the speed limit, should not be the result of the raising of the limit therefore I welcome the government saying that consideration will be made for strict enforcement. Perhaps 84mph will be the new limit.

Ah, spoken like a true speed camera beneficiary - odd that!
Can you remind us how much income the organisation you currently work for, receives from speed camera partnerships? Some of those subscriptions are really quite sizeable - huh?

So long as you get your pound of flesh, thanks to your desired hugely reduced tolerance thresholds ("84mph", a leeway of only 5%), you really are ambivalent, aren't you!

GreenShed wrote:
If there is a systematic rise in death and injury on the motorway after the rise in the limit I do hope those who sponsor it have the shoulders and guts to take the responsibility for any unwelcome outcome.

What about displacement, especially from other roads types that we all know (except you) are less safe?

What about the systematic creation of the "fatality gap" (another topic you really didn't like).

GreenShed wrote:
I predict the serious injury and deaths will increase at expected and well proven rates; why wouldn't it?

The confounding factors have already been explained.
By your logic, there surely can't be any Germans or Isle Of Man residents "left alive"!

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 18:25 
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It occurs to me that for drivers that already drive at about 80mph the new limit will reduce fatigue as they will not have the stress of worrying about speed traps. They could also use the time spent looking for cameras on keeping a better eye on the driving environment.

Strictly enforcing the 80mph limit will make it difficult to use as you would need to clock watch very carefully, after all it takes very little throttle to add 4mph. Hopefully what is meant by strict is that drivers will only get the 10%+2mph rather than the +20%ish 80 - 90 which seems to be the unofficial police limit in good conditions. It would mean the effective limit is about the same and you would know that if cruising at the legal limit you still had a little leeway for making tidy passing manoeuvres and managing space.

It would be nice to see even less restriction on quieter stretches of motorway :)

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 22:48 
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While I endorse the new, more sensible, limit I feel the need to repeat something else I have mentioned before.. Why can't we look around the world and see what works, what's a good idea, and what makes sense?

I'm good with 80 but the French think it should be less when wet. The Germans recognise being too close is dangeous. Americans can turn left/right on a red light because it is safe to do so and makes perfect sense and is greener, more efficient, and better for all.

I don't agree with all 'they' do but once again we have a situation where we have a fixed 'dumb' sign telling everyone what is 'safe' for the conditions.

I think what I'm trying to say, where I'm personally coming from, there HAS to be a way of recognising/differentiating between good and bad drivers

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 12:03 
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Big Tone wrote:
I think what I'm trying to say, where I'm personally coming from, there HAS to be a way of recognising/differentiating between good and bad drivers

There is, but currently the authorities & police choose not to do so and instead seem to concentrate only on driving which is easliy demonstrated as illegal and easily prosecuted.

Detecting good/bad driving requires an experienced human observer, we've invested huge effort & money in automated offence detectors which cannot differentiate between good and bad driving, at the expense of experienced human observers.

There is absolutely no mechanism for dealing with / educating drivers who would be detected as driving badly if they have not committed an actual prosecutable offence.

A lot of drivers know they are driving badly and are already capable of driving to a much higher standard .... ever noticed how behaviour changes for the better (lane discipline, gaps between vehicles etc.) in the presence of a marked police car? Why don't folks drive to that standard all the time? ... I don't know .... but might be worth investigating?

I cautiously welcome the introdution of 80 mph on motorways, as already mentioned by others there are reservations and I won't repeat them. I'll be very interested in the results after it has been in force for a while.

IMO we really really really need to stop the blinkered focus on speed as a measure of what are/are not safe driving practices, IMO the damage already done to the general standard of driving by this obsession, the introduction of widespread automated enforcement, and the reduction of real experienced Trafpol on our roads is simply breathtaking. I really hope this increase in speed limit heralds the end of the obssesion ..... but I'm not holding my breath.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 13:55 
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Steve previously wrote:
GreenShed wrote:
If there is a systematic rise in death and injury on the motorway after the rise in the limit I do hope those who sponsor it have the shoulders and guts to take the responsibility for any unwelcome outcome.

What about displacement, especially from other roads types that we all know (except you) are less safe?

A peer-reviewed (like that matters) study showing exactly what I have reasoned: Did the 65mph Limit Save Lives? .

paper wrote:
In 1987, most states raised the speed limit from 55 to 65mph on portions of their rural interstate highways. There was intense debate about the increase, and numerous evaluations were conducted afterwards. There evaluations share a common problem: the only measure the local effects of the change. But the change must be judged by it's system-wide effects.

And yes, the analysis accounted for long-term trend by comparing casualty deltas against 55mph highways. There is no scope for RTTM error here.

However, there is some evidence of Bias On Selection - in reverse ...

Steve previously wrote:
I think a lot of enforcer and anti-motorist types hate to see the limit increased, after all, less drivers would be 'exceeding the limit', thus the contributory factor of 'exceeding the speed limit' would actually become even less significant within the casualty stats. Hence speed enforcement wouldn't need to factor quite so highly on the agendas of those lobbies (and partnerships) that are so obsessed with speed.

paper wrote:
The new 65mph limit allowed state highway patrols to shift resources from speed enforcement on the interstates to other safety activities and other highways - a shift many highway patrol chiefs had argued for

So there were less patrols too on these roads. Perhaps this is what could result with the higher casualty rates seen on this type of road. However:

paper wrote:
We find that the 65mph speed limit reduced the statewide fatality rate by 3.4% to 5.1%, compared to the states that did not raised their speed limit

So there may well be a local increase, but the often-overlooked (!) system effect is the measure that should be used - and proves what we have been arguing for a long time.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 18:15 
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GreenShed wrote:
...introducing more speed in a system of traffic that already has speed in 1/3rd of collisions would be disastrous.


GreenShed wrote:
I am ambivalent about a speed limit increase on the motorway but do expect to see an increase in death and injury...


GreenShed wrote:
I predict the serious injury and deaths will increase at expected and well proven rates; why wouldn't it?


OK everyone, that's GS nailing his colours to the mast! Someone save this thread "for a rainy day" please! :wink:

Of course, to be fair, as we've had a 70 limit for over 40 years, I'd expect, in the interests of scientific rigour, that this "experiement" should be allowed to run a similar amount of time!

Oh, Greenshed, if you'd be so kind, could you just tell us all, for clarity, what you expect those "well proven rates" to be please? Nothing too onerous, let's say, your predicted KSI figures for each of the next 5 years? (I'll let you off the remaining 35) :wink:


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 22:28 
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Aren't faster roads statistically safer than slower ones?


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 23:38 
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Quote:
Aren't faster roads statistically safer than slower ones?



Sshhh, Greenshield hasn't heard that yet?

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2011 03:14 
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Typically when changing the posted limit there is only a change of 1mph to the speeds already travelled this is widely reported.

Because people are already travelling around 80mph it is highly unlikely therefor that we can expect any sudden increase in speeds or behaviours, just that people will stop worrying about their licences when travelling at these 'speeds'.

People can always choose to only go up to the limit it is not obligatory to go to the speed limit!

We will see a return from those that have been using A roads to the Motorways, which is good. The expected increases that people suspect may happen won't - in part because these speeds are already a reality, so in fact it is only the extra density and volume of traffic that might cause KSI increases and this appears not to happen - papers to follow ...

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2011 08:27 
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SafeSpeedv2 wrote:
People can always choose to only go up to the limit it is not obligatory to go to the speed limit!
This is exactly where the paranoid and misguided scamera worshipers get people like me wrong. I never have and never will seen any speed limit as a target to be reached. When I used the German Autobahns I didn't go flat out everywhere just 'because I could'. I actually ended up doing around 80mph because, as I said, it's fast enough to feel I am making good progress without having to stop at every petrol station.

Before I sold my car last year I tended to go at 55/60mph back over here to save on fuel. I see many motorists doing the same these days which is why, I think, you see L1 going slow with HGV’s etc., L2 going moderately fast and L3 morons often bunched-up at no more than spitting distance from each other at 70 or 80mph. There’s room in L2 but no-one wants to drop down to ~60 so it ends up with a long queue in L3 all eager and waiting for the road to open up. It often doesn't so, if I'm in L3 keeping my distance, morons from L2 cut in front of me and the only way to prevent that happening is to close the gap. Since I am not prepared to drive so close to the car in front I'm the one who gets cut up by drivers from L2 pushing in! :x

That’s my personal observation and experience of the M6 I regularly use at peak times.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2011 13:07 
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Big Tone wrote:
SafeSpeedv2 wrote:
People can always choose to only go up to the limit it is not obligatory to go to the speed limit!
This is exactly where the paranoid and misguided scamera worshipers get people like me wrong. I never have and never will seen any speed limit as a target to be reached. When I used the German Autobahns I didn't go flat out everywhere just 'because I could'.

That's the case with many, if not the majority, of autobahn users. I have seen this for myself. Many/most were happy to cruise along at 80 or less.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2011 15:47 
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There's an excellent opinion piece on this subject by Dominic Lawson (who generally talks a lot of sense) in today's Sunday Times - unfortunately hidden behind the paywall so I can't link to it. He says that it's something that has a strong symbolic value and those who oppose it "are underestimating the breadth of appeal in such an apparently marginal policy announcement".

He also quotes from Liberal peer Viscount Buckmaster who said at the time the national 20 mph limit was scrapped in 1930 (by a Labour government) "the existing speed limit was so universally disobeyed that its maintenance brought the law into contempt".

Even if it makes little difference to either journey times or emissions, surely legitimising what is at present widely practised and widely tolerated is sufficient reason to do it.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:45 
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Official government press release here:

http://www.dft.gov.uk/news/press-releases/dft-press-2011100

Quote:
Government proposes 80MPH motorway speed limit

Publisher: Department for Transport

Published date: 3 October 2011

Type: Press release

Mode/topic: Roads, Road safety, Road transport

Transport Secretary Philip Hammond has announced his intention to consult on raising the national speed limit on motorways from 70 to 80 miles per hour. The Government plans to launch a full public consultation on the issue later this year with a view to implementing any change in early 2013.

Vehicles have changed dramatically since the current national speed limit was set in 1965. Technological advances mean that cars are significantly safer then they were - contributing to a fall of more than 75% in the number of people killed on British roads since 1965. That is why the Government feels it is now time to look again at whether the speed limit set in 1965 is still appropriate.

Road safety is a top priority for the Government and action is being taken to tackle uninsured driving and help police enforce against drink and drug driving. However, the Government believes safety cannot be the only consideration when setting speed limits. Previous analysis shows that raising the motorway speed limit would generate significant economic benefits, worth hundreds of millions of pounds per year from savings of travel time.

Initial work by the Department suggests that setting the motorway speed limit at 80 mph is likely to represent the best balance of costs and benefits and it is similar to the motorway speed limit in other EU countries.

As many as 49% of drivers currently break the 70mph limit. Ministers believe that raising the limit to 80mph would mean that millions of otherwise law-abiding motorists would be brought back inside the boundary, restoring the moral legitimacy of the system.

Philip Hammond said:

"I want to make sure that our motorway speed limit reflects the reality of modern vehicles and driving conditions, not those of 50 years ago.

"While we must ensure that our roads remain among the safest in the world, we must also consider the huge economic benefits that can be created by shortening journey times.

"Increasing the speed limit on motorways from 70 to 80 miles per hour for cars, light vans and motorcycles could provide hundreds of millions of pounds of benefits for the economy and I will put forward formal proposals for making these changes later this year."

Notes to Editors

1. An increase to the national motorway speed limit would apply to England and Wales. Responsibilities are devolved in Northern Ireland and are planned to be devolved in Scotland.

2. Increased motorway speed limits would apply to cars and motorcycles. Lorries on motorways are subject to lower speed limits and we have no proposals to increase them. The consultation is however likely to seek views about the position related to vans/light goods vehicles on motorways.

3. A thorough impact assessment which takes account of the full environmental, social and economic costs and benefits is being progressed.

4. Some stretches of motorway would be likely to retain a 70 mph limit because of their engineering and environment.

5. We are also considering the case related to increasing the speed limit on other high standard, near-motorway dual carriageways. Changes would be implemented case by case and we are not proposing to consult about raising the default national speed limit of 70 mph for all purpose dual carriageways.

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