richlyon wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
Ultimately Safe Speed calls for an urgent return to the road safety policies that gave us in the UK the safest roads in the world in the first place ...
At every turn, Paul, you betray the intellectual flaw I believe runs through the heart of your entire premise. You assert without proof the conclusion you wish to draw - that speed cameras, which you assert only coincidentally prevent you from fully enjoying the road to the extent that your particular skills allow, have
caused a deterioration in road safety and therefore must be banned.
Judging from the number of dodgy overtakes on wrong side of road we have seen lately around here, poor judgment of corners und absence of policemen (und ist not lieber Ian's fault either as he ist patrolling more or less as lonesome
somewhere in very big rural area) - but ist fact we see LESS traffic police than before und only area where they appear on every corner "stealth like - suddenly und form nowhere like the genie in the panto
" ist in lieber IG's territory - und they have a darned good ACCREDITED BY FELLOW PEERS AS IN OTHER
FORCES record
Quote:
You provide no evidence for why you think reversion to a set of policies designed for road conditions that prevailed then would be successful under the road conditions that prevail now.
I think Durham ist an example und contrary to myth -they are probably tougher than anywhere else
I have heard IG's lecture which he gives as training to his "lads und lasses" - ist not easy forgotten either
yet ist not belittling in any way either
We are not seeing any reduction in fatalities either - still 3500 yet claims of reduction at scam sites to tune of 70% - und ist little matter of checking this out because ist ssort of mege soduko challenge to work out how the sub-marinated Maths in Cumbria's stats. Ist not 70% reduction no matter how you apply the equations und arithmetic
(und by the way - did Maths as subsid degree
)
Now in this family - we are ex BRAKE members und we lost one relative at 20mph impact when articulated with bare treads und dodgy brakes crashed through central reserve into crawling tea time traffic. I was almost killed when someone was taken ill at wheel - pressed accelerator hard und hit my rear end.
A policeman happened to be on hard shoulder und that saved my life really.
But could just as easily have been him und not me... was Kismet at work that day.
How on earth ist speed camera going to prevent driver driving when feeling unwell or even detect the worrying driving trend. He was seen by a Panda patrol before joining but Panda in inquest claimed he lost him in traffic heading up to motorway.
Und ist not likely to trace unregistered throwaway either - as in 14 days - thrown away probably und another picked up for £50 or so
Quote:
Nor do you explain why you select road cameras as the principle factor from all the other environmental factors that have changed during the period, and dismiss all other factors that are at least as plausible as the one you champion.
But this ist precisely the problem.
We have a single focus road policy which erects forests of these darned things but fails to correct the driving standard itself - und only way to judge
professionally ist to get police driving back to old Gold Star Hendon standard und let these professionals loose to lurk on roads again und judge the driving or bliped overspeed
professionally as these accidents are not speed per se und lieber IG has posted up link to tragedy near scamera in Norfolk where they say blackspot ist down to dodgy junction und not speed und justify scam to enforce speed limit of 50 mph und claim 85th pervcentile ist 46 mph und mean speed ist 42 mph - und scam in question reportedly makes 3% of their fine rake-in...
So - we have section on this site aimed at improving driving standards, und one aimed at promoting SAFE CYCLING PRACTICE.
What have scammers goto to offer on their sites?
Daft game which no matter how you play und even if you sit with arms folded - congratulates you on arriving 10 minutes late but alive for rollocking at work
Und some other game of which objective fails me...
Oh und not to mention the two blokes in pub und one pro-scam ist DRINKING! (Derbyshire prats ...
)
Quote:
You provide no evidence beyond a series of correlations you admit offer no more than possible causation. Instead, you work backward to manufacture a set of peculiar statistics and (by your own admission) half-cooked theories - which, although the product of 10,000 hours of your research and apparently good enough to sell advertising and £18,000 worth of membership fees on, you assert would take months to present to Independent Safety specialists to verify and might never be ready for publication because they are too progressive for conventional experts to appreciate - in the hope that some of it sticks (or, as you put it, "to report correlation as yet more evidence of possible causation").
Und in BMJ - Pilkington concluded that the OFFICIAL stats were flawed as no standardised scientific collation und some records not even kept. But peer reviews seized on the 70% paragraph for press release und conveneniently forgot the rest as the report which appears und which the pro-lobby seized on
ist one paragraph in whole piece which they use to misrepresent the paper in entirety und conclusion - und I have enough pieces published in accredited medical, bio-chemical und pharmaceutical journals given I have more than one widely used prescriptive drug from design to licence under my pearl encrusted choker Und the Mad Doc has some research items on his lurgies in print too
Quote:
Finally, for your theory to be successful, you need to posit the existence of either an incompetent or malign government that systematically fails to act in the best interest of its citizens,
Well - we did not ask them to be Bush puppets, take us to war, sell our EU rebates, get dupedund taken to cleaners by Jaques und Angela Nor are we pro-ID cards either.
By the way - his education policies are not working when reports say kids are unable to read and write (but able to point a speed camera at a car und encouraged to talk to strangers who may just have been speeding for thrill of being told off by a 7 year old ) Und do not tell me they are more intelligent since I have had to recruit calibre I require from [i] abroad und admin had schoolgirl on work expeerience who could not file because she could not read!
Und there ist little matter of prescriptions, lottery treatment und manipulated wai t stats in NHS - und Mad Doc happens to be consultant wally!
so we know from reality und not IVORY TOWER of Bliaristic stats und muppets he employs!
Quote:
an ignorant population of drivers that is susceptible to a series of bizarre behavioural phenomena, an ignorant general public that is incapable of detecting the widespread manipulation of public information or reflecting on their own experience without your help, and an incompetent or corrupt body of independent Safety Specialists.
IAM are speaking out! RAC speaking out
Opposition speaking out! Retired :cop: - Sir John Stevens etc are speaking out
What we have is an ignorant population of pseudo-academics who do not live in real world und are duped by government stats - which Pilkington described as "lacking und in need of much improvement" in his paper in a peer reveiwed journal
Und we also have Prof Rose Baker whose piece showed element of lottery chance in pings in first place - also published in peer reviewed magazine und also proving regression to the mean - also acceredited by peer review in same magazine
Quote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
I'm proud to have set appropriate priorities in the public interest
Who are you to determine what is and isn't in the public interest? I
am the public - a member of the majority who voted for this government and its policies, a member of the majority that approves of speed cameras, and who is prepared to abide by social limits even if I disagree with them.
Und the turn out? Und ist no longer a significant "majority" either. Lot of members of public including labour voters are not convinced by speed cams efficiency - und now the other side have a cyclist for leader -
(Und he has a cute bum too
)
So - you voted for a someone proven to be a little loose with the truth as well
You are first person I have come across who actually admits voting for this guy anyway. Lot of silly intruding laws - identity cards, people spying on our movements all the time, I had enough of all this in Leipzig aged just 20 und that was just for a semester thankfully.
Quote:
To me, until you have had your work independently scrutinised, you are just a self absorbed, frustrated activist peddling speed camera detector advertising, the product of the sort of naive individualism that so often arises amongst those who would enjoy the benefits of living in a society but who would refuse to be forced to go along from time to time with decisions that go against them.
As matter of fact - my useful gadget bleeps when I approach schools und can set to two mile radius - though ist a tadge irritating when in school cluster zone
It also bleeps at known blackspots und flashes up a peed limit reminder in case a lollipop was missed und there ist a blip over to correct.
It has added bonus that it bleeps mile off scam site - und if you update weekly - includes the mobile ones as reminder too
Und the speedo on the dash - ist right in view which mean I can check speed without taking ey off road at all
Quote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
I'd be amazed if you can find any [logical fallacies] on the web site...Perhaps you next need to specifically identify problems with 'conclusion and methods employed' rather than make extremely vague and unsubstantiated comments.
In what way could I have been any more specific in
this post? To remind you, I didn't pick this example -
you sent it to
me by email as primary evidence of a causal link between speed camera convictions and road deaths. You supplied no qualification, either in your email or on the page itself, that the data is intended to be viewed in the context of some other piece of data. I have demonstrated quite clearly how in the form you present it it is indistinguishable from a
post hoc logical fallacy.
Millions of blippers get fined - but deaths remain 3500. Und this ist the official figure. One would expect deaths to go down und less to be fined if this ist so successful as YOU claim
Quote:
On this thread, you state this example is now meant only "evidence of possible causation", yet on the page itself you state categorically, and without reference to any other evidence than that which is contained on the page, that "... speed cameras and the policies that support them are now costing over 1,000 lives every year." You have linked a conclusion that you hope is true to a piece of data no more substantial than "flu deaths go up when vaccinations are given", passing one off as evidence of the other thereby committing a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy of reasoning which you should remove.
If person ist allergic to eggs - they may die from reaction
Und in any case - a flu jab only vaccinate against last year's variation. Lurgies evolve to survive - und ist quite possible that flu jab will not prevent the disease nor death in a vulnerable.
Quote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
I can think of nothing worse than trying to publish information unprepared and out of context.
By publishing, I presume you mean bring to public attention, which from your assertion of its success in supporting your pressure group, you believe your website has done. Then by your own admission, your entire website is unprepared, and no part of it appears to be readable without reference to other contextual material that is not specified. And yet from it you advertise appliances intended to undermine a major national safety system, and thousands use it to justify their individual campaigns to destroy public property and safety systems.
The origins und RAs do not undermine any safety initiative - they enhance as you have the accurate speed per GPS on dash, a bleep at black spots, schools, kengestion zone warnings so you can buy your ticket in time if new to area und not able to buy on line (which ist always dodgy practice) - und they flash reminder of speed limit in scam zone und black spot und if you have no cruise control und the Moggies/Stags und other classics do not have this function - yucan set to overspeed warning. So ist a useful tool und not at all what your blinkered, prejudiced Noo Labia Bliar brainwashed brain tell you