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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:10 
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Valle Crucis wrote:
jomukuk wrote:
Valle Crucis wrote:
Assumption is the mother of all screw-ups.
I think that's just the "lemming" effect.

It is a myth that lemmings kill themselves, although they do all act in concert sometimes. Humans, in principle, are smart enough to act independently, but the evidence is that they don’t. Crowds act like, well - crowds. The behaviour seems deeply ingrained, and partly explains the pile-ups, the fashions, the stock market crashes, the panics, and (to a greater or lesser extent) the traffic. And the oddest thing is that we individually think we are each acting independently even as we stick closely to the “trend lines” of a crowd. There must be a Darwinian advantage somewhere, but have you every heard this amusing “crowd” story?

Everybody was sure Somebody would do it. Anybody could have done it, but Nobody did it. Somebody got angry about that, because it was Everybody's job. Everybody thought Anybody could do it but Nobody realized that Everybody wouldn't do it. It ended up that Everybody blamed Somebody when Nobody did what Anybody could have done.
Who died of smoke inhalation, and who got burned alive?

Has anyone here ever heard of Aggregate Traffic Animals?

Discusses and theorizes how groups of cars, especially at night, coalesce into different types of collectively UNconscious cohorts, each of whose behavior is usually chiefly influenced by Apparent or Virtual Coxswains.

Each vehicle decides that certain others in the group are best positioned to be good early warning indications - those are Coxswains of one type or another.
Each vehicle that isn't an Apparent Coxswain in a group is either using an Apparent Coxswain as an additional early warning system, or has deluded itself into believing the former, but has actually placed the Apparent Coxswain's perceived value judgements above its own.

If the Apparent Coxswain gets it wrong, or someone mistakes a Virtual Coxswain for an Apparent, the chances of a multi-car pile up increase exponentially; a potentially magnificent crush effectively caused by one or two mistakes.

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The Rules for ALL ROAD USERS:
1) No one gets hurt
2) Nothing gets hit, except to protect others; see Rule#1
3) The Laws of Physics are invincible and immutable - so-called 'laws' of men are not
4) You are always immediately and ultimately responsible for your safety first, then proximately responsible for everyone's
Do not let other road users' mistakes become yours, nor yours become others
5) The rest, including laws of the land, is thoughtful observation, prescience, etiquette, decorum, and cooperation


Last edited by The Rush on Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:26, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:18 
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toltec wrote:
Done properly you will have had plenty of time to decide if backing off the accelerator is all that is needed or if you will actually need to brake.


Just look at that picture - everybody had plenty of time, eh? Yet 192 cars had the chance to do what you suggest, and yet it didn't happen? Could it be that jomukuk is right - people just don't do as you suggest they should? Do they act like lemmings?


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:22 
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The Rush wrote:
Who died of smoke inhalation, and who got burned alive?


Those in the middle and fast lanes, where the cars are all crushed up the most and where the drivers had no chance at all to avoid it, whatever they did. I'll check out that link...


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:39 
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In that pic, at least 191 people picked the wrong Virtual Coxswain, also becoming Virtual Coxswains in the process for some other poor fool.

Who is the bigger fool: ... or the fool that follows?

You'll love that link if you give it enough time to move around in your mind.
Valle Crucis wrote:
What he means is that he "positions for maximum forward observation without slowing down and falling a long way behind". Basically, Joe is treating the road as a crowd – he wants to get through it, he doesn’t want others to get through it before him, and he wants to survive to tell the tale!
Put another way, Joe wishes to pass through an aggregate, and has to temporarily become part of it, trading away the safety of infinitie distance several times by positioning close enough to be able to progress through the aggregate ... unless the entire aggregate decides to vacate an entire lane roughly simultaneously.

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The Rules for ALL ROAD USERS:
1) No one gets hurt
2) Nothing gets hit, except to protect others; see Rule#1
3) The Laws of Physics are invincible and immutable - so-called 'laws' of men are not
4) You are always immediately and ultimately responsible for your safety first, then proximately responsible for everyone's
Do not let other road users' mistakes become yours, nor yours become others
5) The rest, including laws of the land, is thoughtful observation, prescience, etiquette, decorum, and cooperation


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:47 
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Valle Crucis wrote:
These things exist as a tension - he wants to survive, so he should leave a long gap, but he wants to get through, so he shouldn’t leave a long gap. Hm… that’s a problem, so he invents the "position for maximum forward observation" idea to validate trading off safety against speed. Is that it?


I agree with your analysis of the dichotomy faced by drivers on busy motorways or dual carraiageways. However, I'm sure some 'Joes' don't even try to justify their decision to reduce the safety gap; they just know from experience that if they leave a large enough gap someone else will fill it for them and therefore unconsciously take on the extra risk that driving too close tto the vehicle ahead attracts.
And all the time they are doing so they are leaning on luck insofar as if some else ahead has to brake suddenly, avoiding a collision is completely out of their own hands.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 13:45 
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Valle Crucis wrote:
toltec wrote:
Done properly you will have had plenty of time to decide if backing off the accelerator is all that is needed or if you will actually need to brake.


Just look at that picture - everybody had plenty of time, eh? Yet 192 cars had the chance to do what you suggest, and yet it didn't happen? Could it be that jomukuk is right - people just don't do as you suggest they should? Do they act like lemmings?


As I said 'done properly'. Are you saying that just because other drivers cannot be bothered to drive well there is no point in you doing so or trying to get more drivers to do so?

I would need to see pictures or preferably video of that road leading up to the accident to know if they had time or not. I am not sure most drivers are lemmings so much as lazy.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 15:04 
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toltec wrote:
I am not sure most drivers are lemmings, so much as lazy.
If a driver is not responding to, but is instead using another driver's behavior as a proxy for his, it isn't automatically call it lazy, but it is a manifestation of herd mentality.

Has anyone here ever seen more than 10 cars 'brake dancing' in response to the car ahead witnessing the car ahead withnessing the car ahead ... witnessing a hidden enforcement trap of some sort? That is a classic traffic aggregate where one driver beocmes the 'Apparent Coxswain' of a group, and the car immediately in front becomes the 'Virtual Coxswain' for the next car.

It is the rarest collective that is smarter than the mean, median, and mode. Most collectives aren't much smarter than the dumbest member.

_________________
The Rules for ALL ROAD USERS:
1) No one gets hurt
2) Nothing gets hit, except to protect others; see Rule#1
3) The Laws of Physics are invincible and immutable - so-called 'laws' of men are not
4) You are always immediately and ultimately responsible for your safety first, then proximately responsible for everyone's
Do not let other road users' mistakes become yours, nor yours become others
5) The rest, including laws of the land, is thoughtful observation, prescience, etiquette, decorum, and cooperation


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 15:31 
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Valle Crucis wrote:
Ziltro wrote:
I've never had a problem... You can look down the side of them.


Of course there's no problem. I can't see any problem! Who said there was a problem???

You implied that there was a problem because you couldn't see through cars. Which is why you should look around them instead. Then you can see further in to the distance and can plan better.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 16:47 
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Ziltro wrote:
You implied that there was a problem because you couldn't see through cars. Which is why you should look around them instead.


We know that "looking around them" will never completely plug the missing knowledge - some information is simply not discernible. If Joe Bloggs depends on "looking around them", he’s being a bastard by chancing it. The human mind fills out the blanks. It’s built to “look around things”; it’s a Darwinian advantage. The mind can’t easily tell the difference between "looking around things" and "using your imagination". We often make assumptions based on evidence, not facts. And assumption is the mother of all screw-ups.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 17:51 
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Valle Crucis wrote:
RobinXe wrote:
If you're not looking further ahead than the rear of the car ahead


There is no way for you behind to know whether the one in front is looking further ahead.


Well duh, hence why you have to look further ahead than his rear bumper!

All this "looking through glass vehicles" is tripe. If you're behind a car, on a motorway, you can easily garner all the information you require about the road ahead of him with little problem. If you're behind a lorry, you need to leave a bigger gap, to offset the fact that you cannot see ahead, or change lane positioning/lane to improve your view.

Ergo, you should always be able to see your stopping distance clear on the motorway. If you can't then you are doing something wrong.

We could also note, at this point, that your clear stopping distance need not necessarily be clear tarmac in the lane directly ahead of you. If your stopping distance is described by 3 seconds at 70 and you have a 2 second gap between you and the vehicle ahead, and can see 1+ seconds ahead of him, then you can see your stopping distance clear, since the vehicle ahead is not going to stop dead under his own braking, and you can see that there is nothing ahead of him within 'your' stopping distance that is going to cause him to stop dead.

One picture of a pile-up does not prove any point.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 18:03 
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Valle Crucis wrote:

We know that "looking around them" will never completely plug the missing knowledge - some information is simply not discernible. If Joe Bloggs depends on "looking around them", he’s being a bastard by chancing it. The human mind fills out the blanks. It’s built to “look around things”; it’s a Darwinian advantage. The mind can’t easily tell the difference between "looking around things" and "using your imagination". We often make assumptions based on evidence, not facts. And assumption is the mother of all screw-ups.


So then next time I see the brake lights of the car in front of the car in front reflected from the wet tarmac underneath the car in front I should just wait for the car in front to brake because I am just making an assumption otherwise?

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 19:01 
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toltec wrote:
Valle Crucis wrote:
If Joe Bloggs depends on "looking around them", he’s being a bastard by chancing it.


So then next time I see the brake lights of the car in front of the car in front reflected from the wet tarmac underneath the car in front I should just wait for the car in front to brake because I am just making an assumption otherwise?


No - I'm saying that if Joe Bloggs depends on glimpsing the brake lights of the car in front of the car in front reflected from the wet tarmac underneath the car, he is an absolute menace and should receive a ban. I've no aversion to him using an assumption - we all do that.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 19:13 
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RobinXe wrote:
duh … tripe


I've woken a sleeping giant!

RobinXe wrote:
you should always be able to see your stopping distance clear on the motorway. If you can't then you are doing something wrong.


Check out that picture again. Either all 192 drivers were “doing something wrong”, in which case the human race are lemmings, and there’s no hope. Or some of them weren’t dunderheads, and crashed anyway, meaning you are wrong when you say “you should always be able to see your stopping distance”. I’d suggest the latter.

Quote:
We could also note, at this point, that your clear stopping distance need not necessarily be clear tarmac in the lane directly ahead of you.


In a pile up, there is no “stopping distance”. You stop where you hit the compacted trucks in front, with immediate effect.

Quote:
One picture of a pile-up does not prove any point.


Here’s another one on the M42 then:

Image


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 19:40 
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Valle Crucis wrote:
Check out that picture again. Either all 192 drivers were “doing something wrong”, in which case the human race are lemmings, and there’s no hope. Or some of them weren’t dunderheads, and crashed anyway, meaning you are wrong when you say “you should always be able to see your stopping distance”. I’d suggest the latter.


Ah yes, the old Flat Earth Society arguing point that if a significant number of people think/do something then it must be right!

In the circumstances of a pile up, if you have left space to brake to a halt before you hit the 'immovable object' then you have left sufficient space. I doubt very much that "all 192 drivers" were following too closely, though a significant proportion must have been, as evidenced by your pictures. If you've ever seen a pile-up develop, you'll notice that many people do stop short, but those behind them, who have obviously not been leaving an adequate space (or not paying enough attention) crash into them.

I have heard some crazy nonsense from you in the past, but I can't honestly believe that you are arguing against drivers leaving suitable gaps on the motorway, nor suggesting that pile-ups are unavoidable because you can't see far enough ahead!


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 20:17 
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RobinXe wrote:
blah blah … Flat Earth Society blah blah crazy nonsense blah


There’s something wrong with your keyboard, RobinXe. Your Bile button is
too close to the return key. Have that fixed and try again, else the others
might get the wrong impression of you.

RobinXe wrote:
I doubt very much that "all 192 drivers" were following too closely, though a significant proportion must have been … many people do stop short, but those behind them … crash into them.


For those crushed from behind, before the fire takes hold, it must be a
great relief to know that they weren’t at fault.

RobinXe wrote:
I can't honestly believe that you are arguing against drivers leaving suitable gaps on the motorway


You are right on one count, at least.

RobinXe wrote:
nor suggesting that pile-ups are unavoidable because you can't see far enough ahead!


That statement beggars belief. People would stop if they saw far
enough ahead! So are you seriously suggesting that a pile-up would be
avoided if a driver (amongst all of them) “sees further ahead” than the
others? In you own admission, they would be about to be crushed from
behind. What is your point?


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 20:46 
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Valle Crucis wrote:
RobinXe wrote:
If you're not looking further ahead than the rear of the car ahead


There is no way for you behind to know whether the one in front is looking further ahead.

Basically, this means that if you assume that the driver in front is looking further ahead, then you are a horrible liability as well. No explanation is needed - just see the picture above for the outcome of that "chain of assumption". Assumption is the mother of all screw-ups.


That ist the photo of a scrap yard. If you want to see spectacular of a shunt - click this link

http://polizeinews.ch/page/37395/19


Basically .. driver did not realise he approach standing traffic. It icy condition. He hit emergency stop.. but slid into the traffic und shoved 5 car in front into each other :banghead:


Swiss are truest masters of the understatement when they comment..

one line of the article translated wrote:

The cars involved were considerably very badly damaged



Rubber necks on the other side caused crunch between three cars (which

Quote:
incurred trivial damage


:popcorn:


Und they finish by saying that becaus eof the number of tow-away trucks .. there was biggest traffic jam in each direction.. :popcorn:

But this incident on the Chur motorway (they had one major yesterday due to ice as well :roll:) show what happen if you are not looking beyond the car in front of the one in front of you in front of him in front of you.. in front of.. :popcorn: :wink:

(I think there a song or a pome there :lol: (I need the "getmecoat" smiley boy from PH forum :hissyfit: :lol: )

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 21:05 
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Valle Crucis wrote:
jomukuk wrote:
Valle Crucis wrote:
Assumption is the mother of all screw-ups.
I think that's just the "lemming" effect.


It is a myth that lemmings kill themselves, although they do all act in concert sometimes. Humans, in principle, are smart enough to act independently, but the evidence is that they don’t. Crowds act like, well - crowds. The behaviour seems deeply ingrained, and partly explains the pile-ups, the fashions, the stock market crashes, the panics, and (to a greater or lesser extent) the traffic. And the oddest thing is that we individually think we are each acting independently even as we stick closely to the “trend lines” of a crowd. There must be a Darwinian advantage somewhere, but have you every heard this amusing “crowd” story?

Everybody was sure Somebody would do it. Anybody could have done it, but Nobody did it. Somebody got angry about that, because it was Everybody's job. Everybody thought Anybody could do it but Nobody realized that Everybody wouldn't do it. It ended up that Everybody blamed Somebody when Nobody did what Anybody could have done.



Sheep. They follow like sheep. :popcorn:


I am me... Parents told me to be "original" :lol: Take intiative.. show intiative und not to "shape wooden" - which ist saying of my Mama-in-Law who one stern Yorkshire woman und you dare not argue with her. :lol: (Actually .. she very nice und I love her lots. But she strong lady und does not mince words with anyone. :yikes: She was rather sweet over my C:reAhristmas cake disaster that time :boxedin:


:readit: I wanted everything to be perfect. I tried too hard really :lol: It go pear shape if you do too intensely :wink: und

:readit:
I think there a parallel somewhere in transferred "pedantry" as regard driving :readit: ? )

:popcorn:


I not follow fashions. I set my own style. It sound vain perhaps on my part.. but I do get appraising glances und I do get remembered by complete strangers to whom I have said a friendly Hallo Liebchen" in past :wink: Ted think it my sassy accent. :lol: I like to think it my "pullin' powers" :hehe:

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Ich setze mich immer wieder in die Nesseln! Der Mad Doc ist mein Mann! Und ich benutzte seinen PC!

UND OUR SMILEYS? Smile ... und the the world smiles with you.
Smiley guy seen when you read
Fine me for Safe Speed
(& other good causes..)

Greatest love & Greatest Achievements Require Greatest Risk
But if you lose the driving plan - don't lose the COAST lesson.
Me?
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 21:05 
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WildCat wrote:
That ist the photo of a scrap yard.


Thanks, WildCat ... I made the mistake of trusting the coppers!

Here's another one, then.

Image


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 21:15 
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Valle Crucis wrote:
WildCat wrote:
That ist the photo of a scrap yard.


Thanks, WildCat ... I made the mistake of trusting the coppers!

Here's another one, then.

Image


But that ist photo of a bike race going pear shape :popcorn: :wink:

:love: You have to do better :hehe: I am the wild feline who wear the real trousers in Wild Moggie-Cat "mansion" :rotfl:

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Ich setze mich immer wieder in die Nesseln! Der Mad Doc ist mein Mann! Und ich benutzte seinen PC!

UND OUR SMILEYS? Smile ... und the the world smiles with you.
Smiley guy seen when you read
Fine me for Safe Speed
(& other good causes..)

Greatest love & Greatest Achievements Require Greatest Risk
But if you lose the driving plan - don't lose the COAST lesson.
Me?
Je ne regrette rien
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 21:32 
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WildCat wrote:
But that ist photo of a bike race going pear shape :popcorn: :wink:


I know. It just looks like a bunch of blokes lying underneath motorbikes, doesn't it! But it was an interesting shot of a "pile-up" because it shows it can happen to anyone. I'm sorry I've pissed off our friend, RobinXe, but I don't think he gets the thrust of it. My proposition is that roads are like crowds, and are this subjected to crowd controls in the same way that crowds are. Without "crowd controls" of some kind (either external or otherwise, TBD), history shows that pile-ups are inevitable. That is my case, and I don't hear anything that puts a dent in it, yet.


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