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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 13:32 
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For example could we get meaningful data on members predictive ability. What you would record, for example, is instances where you think "that driver is about to turn right" even though they have not yet switched on an indicator. All you would record would be 'I was right' or 'I was wrong' for any prediction you make.

Would there be any point to this?
Would there be a distraction risk in doing so?
What other data would be needed e.g. length of journey, duration of journey?
Should it be - record for journeys on a particular day only?

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 14:40 
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and would the very act of knowing you're partaking in the exercise adversely skew the results ?


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 15:13 
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ed_m wrote:
and would the very act of knowing you're partaking in the exercise adversely skew the results ?


Do you mean an honesty issue? Possibly, though if we were careful to ensure that any publicly visible results could not be linked with particular drivers then hopefully that would be minimised.

As, even if a passenger recorded the result, you would have to reveal your prediction there is no way of making this particular experiment blind. I suppose you could randomly discard half of the results so no particular driver would know if there data was included. Getting statistically significant samples would be enough of a problem without this though.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 15:30 
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no.. i mean if i set out every drive thinking whether i was anticipating someone else's right turn.. i'd probably be more focussed on that than i usually am.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 15:34 
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sorry.. i'm being negative.

perhaps that particular experiment isn't an ideal example.

the question 'would there be any point' is probably key.... what conclusion are you looking for ? what's the theory you're looking to prove/disprove ?

safespeed members are better drivers than everyone else ? ! (and to what end.)

perhaps drivers who exhibit this positive behaviour also exhibit this other behaviour.... or drivers with this behaviour are X times more succesful at Y.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 15:36 
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ed_m wrote:
no.. i mean if i set out every drive thinking whether i was anticipating someone else's right turn.. i'd probably be more focussed on that than i usually am.


I was thinking of the ratio between correct and incorrect predictions rather than total numbers so that effect should not matter. I would be more concerned if it caused a distraction for the driver.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 17:03 
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ed_m wrote:
sorry.. i'm being negative.


No, I would say you are examining the idea critically which is fine by me.

ed_m wrote:
perhaps that particular experiment isn't an ideal example.

the question 'would there be any point' is probably key.... what conclusion are you looking for ? what's the theory you're looking to prove/disprove ?


It occurred to me when I was reminded of a thread discussing sixth sense on the road. I was wondering if we could do experiments to see if there was any reason to think some drivers could get more correct predictions than others. I am not suggesting psychic powers but the concious and unconscious ability read what other drivers are doing.

A connected experiment would try to look at the ratio of predictable to unpredictable drivers, measured subjectively.

ed_m wrote:
the question 'would there be any point' is probably key.... what conclusion are you looking for ? what's the theory you're looking to prove/disprove ?


Is there a point? - why do you think I posted this in brainstorming?

It is possible that we could collect data to better understand what exactly safe driving is.

ed_m wrote:
safespeed members are better drivers than everyone else ? ! (and to what end.)


Unless it was possible to run the same experiment with non-SafeSpeed members I do not see how this could be done. I think anything along the lines of 'do you brake for speed cameras?' or 'do you see other drivers brake for speed cameras?' would have too much built in bias to be of any value.

ed_m wrote:
perhaps drivers who exhibit this positive behaviour also exhibit this other behaviour.... or drivers with this behaviour are X times more succesful at Y.


Only if you can demonstrate a specific link in the behaviours, you have to be very careful in making links based on coincidental matching of statistical values.

Edit - should use preview first.

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Last edited by Toltec on Thu Feb 07, 2008 17:32, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 17:13 
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I can't help thinking that references here to SS experiments will produce some strange results on Google.

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The views expressed in this post are personal opinions and do not represent the views of Safespeed.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 17:31 
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malcolmw wrote:
I can't help thinking that references here to SS experiments will produce some strange results on Google.


Sorry, can you change the thread title?

Erm, any hits are good hits?

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 18:16 
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Could it be carried out from the passenger seat while someone else is driving? Personally I can predict a random idiot is going to do something stupid (though not always what stupid thing they'll do) with about 90% accuracy.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 23:49 
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Nos4r2 wrote:
Could it be carried out from the passenger seat while someone else is driving?


Do not see why not.

Nos4r2 wrote:
Personally I can predict a random idiot is going to do something stupid (though not always what stupid thing they'll do) with about 90% accuracy.


I know what you mean, drivers that you see and decide to give them that bit of extra space. It is almost as if they have no idea what they are going to do themselves until they do it.

Predictably unpredictable? Perhaps better to so say that you can anticipate that their actions will not be predictable.

I know that we could not be particularly rigorous as that would require time and resources I doubt we have. Does anyone think there may be any mileage in this idea?

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2008 00:22 
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toltec wrote:
Nos4r2 wrote:
Could it be carried out from the passenger seat while someone else is driving?


Do not see why not.

Nos4r2 wrote:
Personally I can predict a random idiot is going to do something stupid (though not always what stupid thing they'll do) with about 90% accuracy.


I know what you mean, drivers that you see and decide to give them that bit of extra space. It is almost as if they have no idea what they are going to do themselves until they do it.

Predictably unpredictable? Perhaps better to so say that you can anticipate that their actions will not be predictable.


I call them ditherers-it fits rather well-and I'm glad someone else knows what I mean!

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2008 23:23 
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I guess that will be a no then.

Back to Yak hunting then.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2008 22:17 
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Nos4r2 wrote:

I call them ditherers-it fits rather well-and I'm glad someone else knows what I mean!



I tend to use the phrase "guess where I'm going ,or going to do next "to describe them .
And that's the ones I'd like to experiment on --lobotomy perhaps. :lol:

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2008 02:22 
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toltec wrote:
For example could we get meaningful data on members predictive ability. What you would record, for example, is instances where you think "that driver is about to turn right" even though they have not yet switched on an indicator. All you would record would be 'I was right' or 'I was wrong' for any prediction you make.

Would there be any point to this?
Would there be a distraction risk in doing so?
What other data would be needed e.g. length of journey, duration of journey?
Should it be - record for journeys on a particular day only?


I might have called the title Perceptions of Driving ... we might change it ...

To run a Poll is something that can be done, easily, then you can analyse that data.

Rather than 'predictions' I feel that you are really referring to experience of 'driver & car 'body' language'.
This is gained through much experience, great observation, forward thinking and planning, knowledge and attitude.
As good drivers the 'predictions' are really a summary of our experience. The 'pat on the back' that we can give ourselves, when our assessments are successfully fulfilled, is pleasing, as we have correctly perceived another's action and in doing so, have enabled our own actions to be better pre-empted.
Now this is excellent, as it enables a far higher standard of driving, and a 'ghost-like' appearance on the road, and to other road users. (i.e. they never knew you were there, because you didn't want them to.)

You are so far ahead of them - usually attained by good solid knowledge and experience and using your eyes and mind, to our full ability, that no one 'knows' you were even there.
It also takes the concept of the simple 'hazard perception' and amplifies it to it's top level.

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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 01:45 
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In re-visiting this thread I can see that I totally failed to really answer your suggestion.

I see this driving predictability of others as a regular action that good drivers are very likely to do to varying degrees.

I think a list of writing down how often you 'try to predict' and are correct / wrong and why, answers would be most interesting.
Times of day to - length of journey ...
It may help to show when we are in tune to this extent of concentration, whether we do this for gen info in driving or for specific occasions, when we are more relaxed or at all times.
I think it could show just how much info we gather against those that do not do this, that info is useful and helpful to show just how much info a driver could use to driver more safely.
We might also learn when we subtly do this to learn another's intentions as opposed to 'for idle interest'.

I know that I can 'home in' when I see the vehicle repositioning and then follow the train of thought for their likely action about to occur.
Perhaps a up and coming Left or R turn.
On the motorway I can 'sit back' and assess who is going to go where and when and time my movements to precision and even help to very subtly encourage their action or prevent it when timed just right.
By looking and learning about subtle car controls and observations we should be able to learn more about the why's and when we do this.

--------
How about we try a small experiment to see what we might learn from this ?

How about over this week when we drive we deliberately think about this and choose to try and see as much as possible about who is going where and see how far back we are before we think about the 'target' vehicle and if we are right or wrong and IF we change our mind and WHY - what told us ?
We can think - do these subtle abilities keep us in better command and control AS a result do we EVER get into situations? When did we last get into a close shave or does this subtle behaviour make us 'naturally' more aware not only to our movements but also of all others all about us.
Long term does this make us safer?
---------

Any one fancy doing this for a week, and just give a short report daily, or after each drive, or at the end of the week .....
As an experiment to try and see if by asking questions we can analyse more from this than we are initially aware.
How often do we analyse several cars at once too ... ?
What constitutes this actual observance technique or is it more widespread and mixed in with all road info (i.e. junction on M/way coming up so 75% of cars now in L1 are turning off - yep I am right - sort of thing) This way the road info told us of pending action - not justt he cars movements ....

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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 15:22 
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When I was teaching my children to drive I started showing them this for about a year before they got their learners licence (at 16 in New South Wales) calling it "body language". This was part of teaching them to look further ahead than they were used to - my daughter did not look beyond a couple of metres in front of her so I had to teach her to look out to a hundred metres and spot what was going on.
It was trying to instill into them to spot the vehicle that was going to do something wrong - to develop an instinct for it. Somethings are more obvious than others. The car approaching a junction that is not slowing down or looking at you; the driver who is erratic in steering and speed. It is not something that I was concious of before I was teaching them and even now it is too instinctive to record.
Did it work for my children? In their year on L-Plates they showed me many times that they saw and dealt with the issues.

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