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 Post subject: Wheels kill...
PostPosted: Thu Jul 27, 2006 12:58 
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In a shock revelation it has been discovered that almost 100% of road crash victims were injured in incidents involving vehicles with wheels. A government minister said: "We must do something about this - obviously the correlation is remarkable. If we had fewer wheels then obviously there would be fewer deaths."

OK. I'm joking. But there is something very serious underlying the joke. Clearly the presence of a factor does not mean that in any useful sense the factor contributed to the crash. In September we will get national data showing the proportion of crashes where speeding (exceeding the speed limit) was present for the first time. I'm quite sure it will be under 5%.

But even within that 5% there will be many many crashes where speeding was present, but in no sense at all was a cause of the crash, nor a contributor to the outcome.

So the brainstorming topic is:

- How do we recognise irrelevant factors?
- How are we going to estimate the proportion of crashes involving speeding where speeding was AND was not a real contributory factor?

We need to be ready to make the most of the new data when it comes in 2 months' time.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2006 02:13 
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Will have a think about this in accident invetstigation (root cause analysis) for each element ask why? if it takes you to another step or factor then keep going. At the point you cannot go any further or end up in a loop you have discovered a dead end or a root cause factor.

To take your example:

All accidents involve vehicles with wheels

WHY?

Because they are made with wheels

WHY?

following of too it's conclusion it becomes a dead end with nothing of use to the root cause analysis.


To apply it to speed, I feel would open up a host of factors, not necessarily those that help support cameras.

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Gordon Brown saying I got the country into it's current economic mess so I'll get us out of it is the same as Bomber Harris nipping over to Dresden and offering to repair a few windows.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2006 10:59 
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Safety Engineer wrote:
... root cause analysis ...

Well, that's fabulously helpful.

I've been carrying out 'root cause analysis' all my life without ever knowing that it was a formal discipline. Now I've discovered a whole host of tools and techniques that immediately highlight critical flaws in road safety policy from yet another new angle.

See for example:
http://www.asq.org/pub/qualityprogress/ ... rooney.pdf
which contains: In many traditional analyses, the most visible causal factor is given all the attention. Oh YES!

Thanks, thanks, thanks!

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2006 11:15 
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Safety Engineer wrote:
Will have a think about this in accident invetstigation (root cause analysis) for each element ask why? if it takes you to another step or factor then keep going. At the point you cannot go any further or end up in a loop you have discovered a dead end or a root cause factor.

To take your example:

All accidents involve vehicles with wheels

WHY?

Because they are made with wheels

WHY?


Yea, this process is now used in HF accident analysis. Unlike in previous times, the investigation doesn't stop asking WHY just because it arrives at a potentially culpable individual.

Its amazing the stuff you (I) know without realising how helpful it might be :roll: :stupidme:


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2006 11:39 
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Rigpig wrote:
Its amazing the stuff you (I) know without realising how helpful it might be :roll: :stupidme:


Don't beat yourself up - we've made a lot of interdisciplinary bridges, and they simply aren't obvious to even top professionals in either of the disciplines.

In fact the whole Safe Speed campaign is built on an interdisciplinary bridge between 'expert driving' and 'road safety science'.

There are many unique opportunities where disciplines meet. :yesyes:

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2006 19:42 
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The crowd I did my training with was the Kelvin Consultancy Kelvin TOPSET

Slight plug but I did find them to very very good. And they are based up in Scotland (they do a lot of consulting to the petrochem industries).

One of the things I like about this forum unlike some others is that for the main evryone is willing to chip in and at least consider a different idea/opinion.

:D

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Gordon Brown saying I got the country into it's current economic mess so I'll get us out of it is the same as Bomber Harris nipping over to Dresden and offering to repair a few windows.

Chaos, panic and disorder - my work here is done.

http://www.wildcrafts.co.uk


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 09, 2006 19:04 
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'Why' is the cornerstone of RQA.

Have you tried the '5 whys' approach? whereby if you ask 'why' 5 times from the original statement you will arrive at the root cause.

This is basically what I do for a living now, get to the bottom of things so we can really start improving. Its amazing how much bollocks is assumed in all fields. Beware of 'Convensional Wisdom'

I'd recommend a book called 'freakonomics' to everyone.....particularly the SCP fraternity.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 09, 2006 19:33 
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civil engineer wrote:
'Have you tried the '5 whys' approach?


All my life. I drove my parents and my teachers mad with it.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 10, 2006 11:30 
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You didn't ask why I abreviated Root Cause Analysis to RQA!!!!!

Answer..........Sheer stupidity!


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 10, 2006 11:38 
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civil engineer wrote:
You didn't ask why I abreviated Root Cause Analysis to RQA!!!!!

Answer..........Sheer stupidity!


I knew that. :hehe:

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 10, 2006 21:20 
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Not trying to be obvious - but aint the definition of a vehicle as somat with wheels ---so if it aint got wheels , by converse logic, it aint a vehicle, unless of course its a "tracked vehicle", and these don't usually travel fast enough to be involved in accidents.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 17:11 
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botach wrote:
Not trying to be obvious - but aint the definition of a vehicle as somat with wheels ---so if it aint got wheels , by converse logic, it aint a vehicle, unless of course its a "tracked vehicle", and these don't usually travel fast enough to be involved in accidents.


:?: Image


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 Post subject: Re: Wheels kill...
PostPosted: Sun Aug 13, 2006 12:35 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
But even within that 5% there will be many many crashes where speeding was present, but in no sense at all was a cause of the crash, nor a contributor to the outcome.

isn't your speed is always a contributor to the outcome? ie Leaving the road/hitting something at 30mph is going to have a different result to leaving the road/hitting something at 70mph.
This, I believe, is where the "speed kills" brigade and urban 4wd'ers have come up with the odd idea that we should slow everyone down or drive around in the biggest vehicle we can afford rather than realising it's better to teach people the skills needed not to crash or leave the road in the first place.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Aug 13, 2006 18:16 
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In accident investigation factors can be described as Primary and Secondary.

If a Primary factor is removed then that accident cannot happen given those set of circumstances.

If a Secondary factor is removed then given the same circumstances, the same accident WILL occour, however with a reduced severity of outcome (e.g. injury instead of death).

My main gripe with the current policy is that it seems to be focusing on reducing the severity of accidents and almost (unknowingly) accepting that 'accidents happen' by concentrating on Secondary factors rather than trying to reduce/eliminate the accidents themselves by working on the Primary factors.

In terms of speed using the example you gave johnsher, I would say that speed is more likely to be a Secondary factor than a Primary one.

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Gordon Brown saying I got the country into it's current economic mess so I'll get us out of it is the same as Bomber Harris nipping over to Dresden and offering to repair a few windows.

Chaos, panic and disorder - my work here is done.

http://www.wildcrafts.co.uk


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