botach wrote:
Would it not be more effective to have information signage before the point of no return to warn about motorway problems. Too often motorway problems seem to be "top secret" , whereas many of the short hops eg M6 10 TO J7 can be made off the motorway , sometimes quicker than on it.
That’s certainly worth considering. I suspect the trouble might be that the signage
would be perceived of as being wrong, even when it is right, due to the fickle nature
of drivers. This is due to ‘game thoery’, and it is a challenge for me to explain.
To maximise the bandwidth of the m-way, the trade-off is to put as many cars on it as
you can, while keeping them travelling as fast as they can yet keeping a decent gap
between them. If the pace slows up due to congestion (too many cars), the bandwidth
is reduced. If the bandwidth is reduced, the pace slows up more, so the bandwidth is
reduced more. Eventually, congestion seizes up the m-way.
Congestion control algorithms pre-empt the condition by limiting incoming traffic
before the limit is reached. They would be less effective if they were not
proactive – they would have to wait until traffic is jammed before kicking in, which
takes away the edge, somewhat!
Now consider an ‘informational’ system as you suggest, rather than compulsion. The
congestion control algorithm would detect the signature of a jam, and send out
information before the jam is a reality. But some drivers would ignore that and join
the system, and not get involved with a jam (which is what the system is meant to do).
This would lead the drivers to conclude that the information was totally guff to start
with. Even though the system was doing it’s job perfectly! An engineer’s life is never
fair.
If enough drivers conclude this, the information system becomes self-defeating,
because then a jam would then happen anyway (!) leading other drivers to conclude
that a jam will happen randomly whatever the signs say! In other words, informational
systems can lead to interesting (but hard to predict) outcomes based on game theory
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_Theory.