Safe Speed Forums

I would say it's very likely that it could be explained by RTTM if,
a) most or all of the three events in the prior ten years occurred within a short space of time, or
b) the long-term average over the previous 20 or 30 years was around 1, and/or
c) there was some unusual external circumstance, eg unusually wintry weather, which caused the blip.

But, regardless of the above, the sample size is far too small and/or short-term to be able to discount RTTM as an explanation.

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Only when ideology, prejudice and dogma are set aside does the truth emerge - Kepler

As it's not a linear relationship, I think any attempt to take a "slice" either side of an arbitrary point will be doomed. The scamera partnerships have exploited this in the past. In fact, I remember one laughable incident when Cumbria SCP were just setting out their stall. They proudly announced that their target was to reduce KSIs down to "x" by the year "y". It sounded quite impressive, on the face of it, until someone realised that if you followed the long term trend and extrapolated it, then "meeting the target" actually meant that they'd have to go kill an EXTRA couple of people by the year "y"!

The long term trend is (probably) logarithmic (or some sort of curve that gets progressively shallower as it approaches zero). Clearly, it can never cross the zero line! Attempts to treat it as a straight line will inevitably result in it crossing the axis at some point in the future - which, of course, can't happen. I think Steve has done some curve-fitting exercises and has come up with something pretty good? Anyway, here, (I think) lies the problem. The curve is gentle enough to be APPROXIMATED to a straight line over short periods of time. HOWEVER, because KSIs are relatively few (in the great scheme of things), using short time periods leaves the figures open to wild, random fluctuations (with claims being made by both sides on the basis of those fluctuations). HOWEVER, if you try to average out these fluctuations by taking longer time intervals, then your straight line relationship goes down the toilet, so you're stuffed either way! The only fair way to do it (I think) is to establish, with as much certainty as possible, the CURVE. Then extrapolate it and plot one above and one below it (both parallel to it) representing the agreed upper and lower limits of "random" fluctuations. Anything consistently above the upper curve for a period of (say) 5 years, can be regarded as a failure, and anything below it, a success.

I'm no statistician, so I'm probably not using the correct terms or explaining myself especially well, but I'm sure such a task would be possible for anyone with a good grasp of the subject!

Longer timeframes would suggests a genuine mean.
However, the three events in a tight cluster (significantly shorter duration than the 10 year baseline) would show as unusual (random, beyond mean). So depending on the distribution of the accidents, the potential for RTTM could be reduced, or not.

Edited as my earlier answer wasn't well thought out

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Views expressed are personal opinions and are not necessarily shared by the Safe Speed campaign

so if there is a problem (not just speeding), ae you suggesting that the powers the be sit on their haunches for 10 yrs to see if the problem goes away

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now retired

If you're trying to measure something then you need to wait until there's something to measure.
If you believe otherwise then would you kindly give me the lottery results from next week's paper - I'll split 50:50 with you

Of course it's a different story if you're trying to manufacture statistics rather than measure them.

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Only when ideology, prejudice and dogma are set aside does the truth emerge - Kepler

Not at all.
How did you manage to infer that from my response?
You gave a classic strawman.

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Views expressed are personal opinions and are not necessarily shared by the Safe Speed campaign

sorry steve, there are more than one poster (allbeit not many) on this thread), but seeing as you replied the complex which my mother has recently moved into has a problem with yooths milling around, i have contacted the CPT who said they will monitor the situation as routine, just wonderinghow long they have to compile the data before they act

whats a strawman is the another SS invention

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now retired

I imagine that you would prefer the CPT to set up a camera and if an infraction is observed a notice would be sent to the perpetrator within 14 days asking them to say who did it. That'll teach them!

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Malcolm W.
The views expressed in this post are personal opinions and do not represent the views of Safespeed.

Oh there is, I just clearly have not dumbed it down enough for you to see it yet. Let me dig out some crayons...



Hmm, shame what you learnt wasn't how to read/comprehend properly:



Now, in the posts of mine you quoted there are two requests from me that you have completely ignored, one can only assume because you lack the faculties to address them, and one of them was a multiple choice question for goodness sake!

Do you think that this "drive-by" style of posting you have adopted; surfacing, firing wildly wide of the target and then submerging again, if that is an analogy you are more comfortable with:

(a) Makes you seem really clever and gives you loads of credibility with readers, or
(b) Highlights the fact that you seem entirely unable to conduct a rational, reasoned debate, based on facts, and run away anytime someone demolishes another of your flimsy points.

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Regulation without education merely creates more criminals.

A well-known logical fallacy, commonly referenced. Just remember that Google is your friend!

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Regulation without education merely creates more criminals.

prefer aunt sally myself, seeing as we are on personal traits, how come a helicopter pilot has yet again avoided combat action, is it motorbike season

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now retired

To whom are you referring? William can't deploy to Afghanistan because he is the future king, but he's doing his bit in this country.

Are you OK these days CamOp; your posts seems to lack much coherent thought these days, are you drinking?

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Regulation without education merely creates more criminals.

i recall you saying that as a combat helicopter pilot, who has got shot at abroad gets persecuted by SCP's on their returns



thanks for the concern , bad eyesight and small keyboard are my problem

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now retired

Indeed I am, but I have never "avoided combat action", and have indeed been in combat on several occasions, with more pending. What have you done for your country?

Furthermore, I have never claimed to be "persecuted by SCP's [sic]", my licence is, and always has been, points free.

I do ride a motorcycle.

So what exactly was your point?

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Regulation without education merely creates more criminals.

well first and foremost i wish you and your comrades a safe return, i am just wondering do you on base / in action, disregard any official procedures the same as you have appear to disregard to road law



never had the luxury of flying a helicopter,
i suppose my highlight is many moons ago i was a retained fireman and was awarded a commendation in helping to save a motorists life, a car had left the road into a partially filled water ditch, i was chest deep in freezing water holding the casualtys head out of the water until the roof was cut off and he was extracted. Entering a burning building and extracting a mother and child also ranks up there. And keeping the local doughnut shop in business

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now retired

What makes you think that I disregard road law? Did you miss the bit where I mentioned my perennially point-free paperwork?

We only have your word to your heroic deeds, though well done if they are indeed true. There are others here who can vouch for my bona fides, I have nothing to hide.

Would you care to address any of the on-topic issues?

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Regulation without education merely creates more criminals.

a gut feeling, humbling in fact glad to know you repect speed limits and road markings



jobs a job IMO, notice i did not include anything from the police service, theres plenty there as well,



trying to think what they are, ah yes RTTM, i / we them are wrong

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now retired

That and IAM’s terrible use/misuse of statistics, if I remember correctly from six pages ago...

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The views expressed in this post are personal opinions and do not necessarily represent the views of Safe Speed.
You will be branded a threat to society by going over a speed limit where it is safe to do so, and suffer the consequences of your actions in a way criminals do not, more so than someone who is a real threat to our society.

I thought I would say that I have just assigned a new macro into my newly purchased keyboard.
Whenever I press the key "G2", it automatically creates the full BB code for the hyperlink: RTTM

I'll be using that a lot more from now on; I'm sure one or two people will be most irritated

RTTM RTTM RTTM RTTM RTTM RTTM RTTM RTTM RTTM RTTM

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Views expressed are personal opinions and are not necessarily shared by the Safe Speed campaign

How does that work then ? Fancy sending me the function or link to it ? I could use that a lot - in fact I could assign every Function key to a Safe Speed Link that would save me hours !

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Safe Speed for Intelligent Road Safety through proper research, experience & guidance.