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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 13:57 
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Big Tone wrote:
Haven't heard Shaw Taylor's name for about 30 years or more. You must have a good memory if your name suggests your birth date Paul. ;)

Paul doesn't need to try anything, the exception doesn't prove the rule anyway. They did exhaustive tests on dummies and, hopefully, the right ruling was made for all the right reasons.

What no-one has said yet is that even if you are the most cynical person on earth, leading car manufacturers with the best record for safety employ seat belts across the board, so I give them credit for knowing more about the virtues of wearing a seat belt than I do. Do you imagine Volvo did it because of political or public pressure?

Free choice sometimes has to be removed from us because common sense isn't very common in the human race. The difficulty is getting the balance right between free choice and what is in our best interest.

Tone_1958 :)


It was partly public and political pressure that forced car makers to worry about safety.

If you look back a few pages you'll see some details of the Cornell project.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 13:59 
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Big Tone wrote:
Haven't heard Shaw Taylor's name for about 30 years or more. You must have a good memory if your name suggests your birth date Paul. ;)


"Keep 'em peeled!"

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 14:02 
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smeggy wrote:
You (we) might be better off petitioning for a rigorous scientific study of the effects of belting up instead of petitioning for the abolition of their mandatory use.

We can't have a road safety policy based on theories, especially when so many people are dying.


:clap1:

And you have given me some ideas too. Brilliant. Thanks.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 15:08 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
Grumpy Old Biker wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
ed_m wrote:
ah well i was thinking the opposite really..... i wouldn't eschew the benefits of these systems in an emergency just because people compensate for them in normal driving.


I reckon that idea is dangerously wrong. The problem is that normal driving is so much more common that 'emergencies'.
A 1% risk increase in normal driving might (for example) be far larger than a 50% reduction in risk during emergencies.

We really have to find ways of evaluating the 'whole system' effects.


'Normal' driving is a not a constant, but is driven by vehicle performance.


Absolutely. Speed, surprise and space are constantly changing.

Grumpy Old Biker wrote:
Vehicle handling is so advanced now that we all push the concept of being able to stop within the distance we can see to be clear.


I can't find enough crashes or incidents in the system for that to be true. I believe we base our safe speed plans on far less braking than emergency braking thereby maintaining a margin for error.

But I worried about that too, and a few years ago I drove like stink along a twisty A road with a video camera running and me calling the speed from the speedo onto the soundtrack.

I analysed the video later measuring distance to unseeable places from time (frame count) and speed (called onto the soundtrack) and found I was pretty exact in matching speed to vision, allowing for braking always below 0.7 (trying to remember exactly, but not very certain)g. I was pretty amazed by the results actually. The degree of precision was far higher than expected.


Actually, how many of us really know how quickly we can stop (under control) and therefore what speed we should be doing. That “being able to stop in the distance we can see to be clear” rule is only working on our ‘gut-feelings’ but based on what? Almost certainly not experience.

My original point was that generally, roads are a constant, reaction times are a constant but car technology isn’t. Therefore ‘normal’ driving is based on the technology advances and not the conditions, which may not necessarily mean we are safer.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 15:15 
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handy wrote:
Big Tone wrote:
Haven't heard Shaw Taylor's name for about 30 years or more. You must have a good memory if your name suggests your birth date Paul. ;)

Paul doesn't need to try anything, the exception doesn't prove the rule anyway. They did exhaustive tests on dummies and, hopefully, the right ruling was made for all the right reasons.

What no-one has said yet is that even if you are the most cynical person on earth, leading car manufacturers with the best record for safety employ seat belts across the board, so I give them credit for knowing more about the virtues of wearing a seat belt than I do. Do you imagine Volvo did it because of political or public pressure?

Free choice sometimes has to be removed from us because common sense isn't very common in the human race. The difficulty is getting the balance right between free choice and what is in our best interest.

Tone_1958 :)


It was partly public and political pressure that forced car makers to worry about safety.

If you look back a few pages you'll see some details of the Cornell project.



I looked back and did a search Handy but couldn't find what you're referring to. (slow connection doesn't help)

I find it hard to believe that a car manufacturer would fit seat belts if they believed they're no good or of only limited use. These companies invest millions/billions in tests of every sort.

So, if after all the cost time and trouble of the R&D, seat belts proved to be of no benefit they would surely declare this or explain their findings to the body who are all for them? They would only make something in the name of safety.

(This is why Volvo won't make Gatso Cameras or you won't see a Toyota Truvelo) :lol:

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 15:20 
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Actually, how many of us really know how quickly we can stop (under control) and therefore what speed we should be doing. That “being able to stop in the distance we can see to be clear” rule is only working on our ‘gut-feelings’ but based on what? Almost certainly not experience.


Actually most of us must be pretty good at judging how quickly we can stop because we don't keep crashing into things. I reckon it's almost entirely experience that allows us to do it and it's one of the reasons why experienced drivers tend to crash less than new drivers.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 15:35 
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semitone wrote:
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Actually, how many of us really know how quickly we can stop (under control) and therefore what speed we should be doing. That “being able to stop in the distance we can see to be clear” rule is only working on our ‘gut-feelings’ but based on what? Almost certainly not experience.


Actually most of us must be pretty good at judging how quickly we can stop because we don't keep crashing into things. I reckon it's almost entirely experience that allows us to do it and it's one of the reasons why experienced drivers tend to crash less than new drivers.


Doesn’t experience mean that ‘harsh’ braking is never (hardly ever) used? When was the last time you practiced a full-blown emergency stop?

I’m thinking of a spirited drive around our rural twisties. We need to judge our speed such that we could stop safely if a stationary tractor was just around the corner. How do we make the judgement? We don’t practice braking big-time on bends.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 15:46 
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Grumpy Old Biker wrote:
Doesn’t experience mean that ‘harsh’ braking is never (hardly ever) used? When was the last time you practiced a full-blown emergency stop?


Last weekend when a suicidal Pheasant leaped in front of my Kawasaki. My knuckles went white and my pants nearly went brown. Well, you did ask.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 15:57 
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Big Tone wrote:
handy wrote:
It was partly public and political pressure that forced car makers to worry about safety.




I find it hard to believe that a car manufacturer would fit seat belts if they believed they're no good or of only limited use. These companies invest millions/billions in tests of every sort.

So, if after all the cost time and trouble of the R&D, seat belts proved to be of no benefit they would surely declare this or explain their findings to the body who are all for them? They would only make something in the name of safety.

Cynical hat on:

Perhaps it is a cunning marketing strategy to convince us that their car is ‘safest’?
As Handy said, there is great pressure to maximise safety, so they’re of course going to go to lengths to try to convince us that their car is seemingly the safest, or at least compliant to the dominant dogma surrounding it, regardless of whether it really is safe or not.
“The customer is always right!”


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 16:03 
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Grumpy Old Biker wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
Grumpy Old Biker wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
ed_m wrote:
ah well i was thinking the opposite really..... i wouldn't eschew the benefits of these systems in an emergency just because people compensate for them in normal driving.


I reckon that idea is dangerously wrong. The problem is that normal driving is so much more common that 'emergencies'.
A 1% risk increase in normal driving might (for example) be far larger than a 50% reduction in risk during emergencies.

We really have to find ways of evaluating the 'whole system' effects.


'Normal' driving is a not a constant, but is driven by vehicle performance.


Absolutely. Speed, surprise and space are constantly changing.

Grumpy Old Biker wrote:
Vehicle handling is so advanced now that we all push the concept of being able to stop within the distance we can see to be clear.


I can't find enough crashes or incidents in the system for that to be true. I believe we base our safe speed plans on far less braking than emergency braking thereby maintaining a margin for error.

But I worried about that too, and a few years ago I drove like stink along a twisty A road with a video camera running and me calling the speed from the speedo onto the soundtrack.

I analysed the video later measuring distance to unseeable places from time (frame count) and speed (called onto the soundtrack) and found I was pretty exact in matching speed to vision, allowing for braking always below 0.7 (trying to remember exactly, but not very certain)g. I was pretty amazed by the results actually. The degree of precision was far higher than expected.


Actually, how many of us really know how quickly we can stop (under control) and therefore what speed we should be doing. That “being able to stop in the distance we can see to be clear” rule is only working on our ‘gut-feelings’ but based on what? Almost certainly not experience.


Ahh, but we're not planning emergency braking are we? The most we ever plan for is 'firm braking' on the road, and we constantly practice the braking plans that we have chosen.

The possibility of emergency braking remains and gives us a substantial margin for error.

Grumpy Old Biker wrote:
My original point was that generally, roads are a constant, reaction times are a constant but car technology isn’t. Therefore ‘normal’ driving is based on the technology advances and not the conditions, which may not necessarily mean we are safer.


I don't think so. The whole thing is a 'closed loop' with the driver (/rider) as regulator. Improve any other part of the system and the driver might reasonably be expected to take advantage. I know I do.

Taking the example of a superior car, I know I'll drive it faster and harder than an inferior car - because I can. I can't tell you if I use all the advantantage (meaning no gain in margin) or not. I'd like to think that I use most of the advantage and leave myself with a net benefit, but it's hard to know.

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Last edited by SafeSpeed on Thu Oct 04, 2007 16:09, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 16:04 
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smeggy wrote:
Big Tone wrote:
handy wrote:
It was partly public and political pressure that forced car makers to worry about safety.




I find it hard to believe that a car manufacturer would fit seat belts if they believed they're no good or of only limited use. These companies invest millions/billions in tests of every sort.

So, if after all the cost time and trouble of the R&D, seat belts proved to be of no benefit they would surely declare this or explain their findings to the body who are all for them? They would only make something in the name of safety.

Cynical hat on:

Perhaps it is a cunning marketing strategy to convince us that their car is ‘safest’?
As Handy said, there is great pressure to maximise safety, so they’re of course going to go to lengths to try to convince us that their car is seemingly the safest, or at least compliant to the dominant dogma surrounding it, regardless of whether it really is safe or not.
“The customer is always right!”



Nooo Nooo

And stand to have all that egg on their face when it's revealed, as these things always are, that it was just a marketing ploy?

That's the stuff of politicians, not car manufacturers.

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You will be branded a threat to society by going over a speed limit where it is safe to do so, and suffer the consequences of your actions in a way criminals do not, more so than someone who is a real threat to our society.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 16:14 
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Big Tone wrote:
smeggy wrote:
Big Tone wrote:
handy wrote:
It was partly public and political pressure that forced car makers to worry about safety.




I find it hard to believe that a car manufacturer would fit seat belts if they believed they're no good or of only limited use. These companies invest millions/billions in tests of every sort.

So, if after all the cost time and trouble of the R&D, seat belts proved to be of no benefit they would surely declare this or explain their findings to the body who are all for them? They would only make something in the name of safety.

Cynical hat on:

Perhaps it is a cunning marketing strategy to convince us that their car is ‘safest’?
As Handy said, there is great pressure to maximise safety, so they’re of course going to go to lengths to try to convince us that their car is seemingly the safest, or at least compliant to the dominant dogma surrounding it, regardless of whether it really is safe or not.
“The customer is always right!”



Nooo Nooo

And stand to have all that egg on their face when it's revealed, as these things always are, that it was just a marketing ploy?

That's the stuff of politicians, not car manufacturers.


Really? Where do the tobacco companies figure in this argument?

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 16:16 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
Ahh, but we're not planning emergency braking are we?


I dunno. The rule doesn't specify the rate at which we should be able to stop. :)

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 16:16 
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Quote:
If you don't survive? Well, you were wrong.


Quote:
Does that mean that if he crashes without a seatbelt and survives, he was right?


Quote:
no, all it means is that he crashed without a seatbelt and survived.


I think you've just shot down your original claim then. You can't have it both ways!

Quote:
why don't you take your belt off, the chances of you being caught are minimal as there are no police about anyway.


What makes you think I don't drive without a belt anyway? I agree, the number of times one is likely to get caught in most places is minimal. I've been ignoring the seat belt law for 24 years, and in that time I've had six, maybe seven tickets. Deduct the amount of time I've spent driving old cars which are quite legally without seat belts at all, and the time I've spent living in a jurisdiction with no primary seat belt law enforcement, and it still works out at a pretty low average. I returned to England 11 years ago, and I can tell you that since then I've received precisely two citations -- One about 9 years ago and the other a year ago last month.

Quote:
Haven't heard Shaw Taylor's name for about 30 years or more. You must have a good memory if your name suggests your birth date Paul


Yes, I was born in 1966. I remember the Jimmy Savile ads from my childhood, of course, although I don't recall the Shaw Taylor ones first time around. I have some of them among a collection of old public information films though, plus a couple of the very first "You Know It Makes Sense" belt campaigns.

Quote:
4 Occupants in car
3 not wearing belts = dead
1 wearing belt = alive


Indicative maybe, but by itself it proves nothing. If you searched hard enough you could probably come up with accidents in which three belted occupants were dead and one unbelted survived.

I've certainly seen reports of crashes with two occupants in which the buckled person died, the unbuckled one survived.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 16:24 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
Big Tone wrote:
smeggy wrote:
Big Tone wrote:
handy wrote:
It was partly public and political pressure that forced car makers to worry about safety.




I find it hard to believe that a car manufacturer would fit seat belts if they believed they're no good or of only limited use. These companies invest millions/billions in tests of every sort.

So, if after all the cost time and trouble of the R&D, seat belts proved to be of no benefit they would surely declare this or explain their findings to the body who are all for them? They would only make something in the name of safety.

Cynical hat on:

Perhaps it is a cunning marketing strategy to convince us that their car is ‘safest’?
As Handy said, there is great pressure to maximise safety, so they’re of course going to go to lengths to try to convince us that their car is seemingly the safest, or at least compliant to the dominant dogma surrounding it, regardless of whether it really is safe or not.
“The customer is always right!”



Nooo Nooo

And stand to have all that egg on their face when it's revealed, as these things always are, that it was just a marketing ploy?

That's the stuff of politicians, not car manufacturers.


Really? Where do the tobacco companies figure in this argument?


Cars aren't an addiction. Also, off the top of my head, didn't the biggest tobacco company in the world, Marbourgh, have to pay out millions some years ago?

(Can't remember how to spell it cuz I don't smoke.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 16:25 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
The most we ever plan for is 'firm braking' on the road, and we constantly practice the braking plans that we have chosen.

The possibility of emergency braking remains and gives us a substantial margin for error.


If we only ever plan for 'firm braking', where does that leave us with the stationary tractor just round the corner. Is that possibility really taken into account when we judge our speed?

In not, the possibility of 'emergency braking' remains, but we really don't know how well we will perform under those conditions.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 16:26 
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Grumpy Old Biker wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
Ahh, but we're not planning emergency braking are we?


I dunno. The rule doesn't specify the rate at which we should be able to stop. :)


Sure - but we plan braking within our personal comfort zone and constantly test our plans. These tests refine our judgement.

On the quiet roads of North Scotland I reckon I encounter an obstruction just round a blind bend about 3 times a year. It's never been a real scare, and it's never been a crash where some other driver couldn't stop.

I reckon we're (i.e. national population of drivers) better at it than you give us credit for.

Perhaps you should arrange to try your own version of my video test and see what results you get? I'll place my bet here and now that you would be pleasantly surprised.

You might like to consider the views on http://www.safespeed.org.uk/inattention.html and http://www.safespeed.org.uk/braking.html Where I'm suggesting that the possibility of harder braking than the plan is a great place to keep your margin for error.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 16:27 
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Big Tone wrote:
And stand to have all that egg on their face when it's revealed, as these things always are, that it was just a marketing ploy?

That's the stuff of politicians, not car manufacturers.

You might be surprised at just how political (i.e. slippery) company directors can be, when in competition or in the deep smelly stuff.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 16:29 
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Big Tone wrote:
handy wrote:
If you look back a few pages you'll see some details of the Cornell project.



I looked back and did a search Handy but couldn't find what you're referring to. (slow connection doesn't help)


http://www.safespeed.org.uk/forum/viewt ... c&start=31

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 16:31 
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smeggy wrote:
Big Tone wrote:
And stand to have all that egg on their face when it's revealed, as these things always are, that it was just a marketing ploy?

That's the stuff of politicians, not car manufacturers.

You might be surprised at just how political (i.e. slippery) company directors can be, when in competition or in the deep smelly stuff.


Sure, but in the same way tobaco companies etc. have to pay out, imagine how big the pay out would be from all those who will argue the car hurt their neck and want compensation.

It's suicide for any company to have something like this happen. Look how quick they are to recall models which get through the QA net...

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