The public on foot and bike are totally suicidal. More victim-blaming and sweeping prejudice, a cyclist who runs a red light may be suicidal, a motorist who does the same is homicidal. This forum serves as an outlet for people who fantasise about killing cyclists. These posts aren't moderated.
The basis of the evidence is skewed and partial.
I have no sympathy at all for people who break the speed limit, regardless
of whether they judge the speed limit to be set at the wrong level. The
speed is set, and we agree to the limits and all other driving/riding laws
by being on the road in the first place. If you go over the speed limit and
get a fine, then it's tough luck - but more worrying it's tough luck on the
potential RTA victim. So for those who feel it necessary to break the speed
limit, please spare a thought for the innocent you may be involved with.
Ok, here it goes.
Put baldly your argument seems to be that there was a change in the
rate of fall in casualties per km in 1993 and that the only event that
can have caused this was the "speed kills" campaign.
1./ There is no reason to believe that the figures should follow an
exponential decay. However even if it did there might be a hardcore of
incompetent or arrogant drivers who will not be influenced by any safety
campaign. If that is true then you cannot expect the trend to reach zero
at infinity, but rather some other asymptote.
2./ this inflection may be noise.
3./ Many other things have changed since 1993, some irrelevant (price of
cheese, negative equity etc) and some others that may be significant (
number of 4x4s on the road, number of school runs, weather, use of ABS,
fall in number of cyclists, spread of mobile phone use, alcopops,
ecstasy......) To pick on your own hobby horse as the cause is plain silly.
Lets make speeding as unacceptable as drink driving.
Take this:
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/fatality.html What caused the clearly observable change in trend in about 1978 which
resulted in an above average reduction in accident rate? (Your graph 1 (the
DfT stuff, not the meaningless straight lines).
What caused the trend line to return to its 1950 to 1978 rate in about 1992?
Were all cameras removed in 1978 and no-one noticed?
Drawing straight lines on the graphs to justify a contention is not proving
the contention. If you want to analyse the data then please do it properly.
It does require more than a helix 6" ruler and one of those pens with 12
different colours -- not surprisingly.
If you cannot analyse the data but still hate cameras you could try some of
the suggestions that can be found elsewhere -- such as hairspraying your
number plate, adding additional, false plates or blowing the things up. At
least that way you would get out more and not fill the internet with puerile
crap.
Never forget, cameras CANNOT cause accidents. Bad drivers responding
inappropriately to cameras can, but cameras ABSOLUTELY CANNOT cause
accidents.
Your mathematics may be correct (although I dispute the validity of
picking arbitrary trend lines based on the overall change between two
arbitrary years; you have not demonstrated that there is a
statistically significant change since 1993; the data points are
well-distributed and the chances of seeing a 'trend' such as the one
you identify purely by blind chance are all too present. The onus is
on you to show that the trend is not attributable to lady luck if you
wish to use these figures to support a case for change in public
policy).
Any such analysis should anticipate a gradual fall in the year-on-year
percentage change since the eventual outcome of any road safety policy
will be to leave us with a residual level of accidents that reflect
human and technical inadequacy (we will never achieve an accident-free
road network while humans drive, walk and cycle). Each new development
in road safety may reasonably be expected to cause a temporary spike
in this for a few years as their impact is felt and then, over
subsequent years, the rate of change will fall away as there is no new
advance to reduce the figures.
Even if I grant that that the maths is acceptable, the conclusions you
draw from it hold no water.
Your assertion that speed cameras and the speed kills policy are the
only possible cause is at worst ridiculous and at best an assertion
unsupported by any causal evidence. The statement that it must be true
because it is the only reasonable cause is infantile, and your attempt
to hide such a random leap of illogic within a mass of
reasonable-sounding mathematice akin to the defenses of Astrology that
are littered astronomical terms to impress the gullible.
So let me offer you one alternative hypothesis. In 1992 the Ford
Escort was first fitted with an airbag. This happened on a few K reg
models (available Autumn 1993) and became more widespread over
subsequent years (
http://www.parkers.co.uk/pricing/used_o ... ?model_i...).
Airbags became widely available in the Vauxhall Astra in 1993
(
http://www.parkers.co.uk/pricing/used_o ... ?model_i...).
These 2 cars account for a large percentage of UK sales. This is not
the first introduction of airbags into UK cars, but it is when they
became common.
1993 as a year saw a large percentage reduction in the percentage
change of fatalities per billion vehicle miles (roughly 1% compared to
0.6% in 1991). This reflects the impact of airbags in reducing the
fatalities of drivers. Since then the percentage change of deaths per
billion KM has been dropping away steadily. I put this down to drivers
adapting to the presence of airbags, feeling safer as a result and
driving less safely (there are figures below to support this).
Mr. Smith sold snake oil. Smoke and mirrors, smoke and
mirrors.