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 Post subject: Some help please
PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 19:04 
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Joined: Sat Feb 21, 2009 23:07
Posts: 135
Quote:
A Department for Transport report claimed “100 lives are being saved per year by speed cameras”. In the appendix the same report stated that “The figure did not include the statistical bias, regression to the mean” which it believes is 75%, so the real figure is 25 lives are being save per year thanks to speed cameras.


I got that info somewhere on this website (its paraphrased) but can't find it anymore :? can someone link to it please and also what report is that from. Need to cite it as a reference!

Cheers :drink:


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 Post subject: Re: Some help please
PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2009 18:45 
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Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 12:01
Posts: 4813
Location: Essex
Regression to the mean is explained impeccably by Paul - see http://www.safespeed.org.uk/rttm.html

The four-year DFT evaluation report's report URL keeps changing. It is presently live in http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/roadsafety/sp ... gr4598.pdf . That is where Linda Mountain's appendix is neatly hidden away.

There are several places that Safe Speed has identified the flaw, including press releases. Yell if you need any of these.

Hope this helps.


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 Post subject: Re: Some help please
PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2009 18:57 
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Joined: Sat Feb 21, 2009 23:07
Posts: 135
Cheers Roger, exactly what I wanted :bighand:

Interesting how the url for that keeps changing, TRL 595 was damn near impossible to find (I believe someone emailed it to me) and the report showing the real% exceeding the speed limit if a factor in accidents was hard to find as well. DfT were very helpful when I emailed them looking for reports showing the benefits of cameras :roll: I wonder...


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