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 Post subject: Skewed statistics
PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2005 02:31 
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Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2005 02:50
Posts: 2868
Location: Dorset
I noticed something.
The official statistics on number of vehicles and their speed on a road come from one of the grey telemetry boxes owned (usually) by the highways agency, right?

The same box is used for collecting data before and after the camera is installed.

As we all know, most people hit the brakes for the camera then speed up afterwards.

So...

Plonk the camera right on top of the telemetry box and magically the statistics show a huge decrease in the speed of vehicles on that road.

Have a look at the speed data at the bottom of the pages for these 2 cameras: (the speed limit for each site is at the top)
A351 Sandford Road, Sandford
Quote:
Speed Limit = 30mph

Speed Baseline Data: Sept 2002
85th %ile = 34mph
%> Above speed limit =37 %
%> 15mph > Speed Limit =0 %

Most recent speed survey data: June 2004
85th %ile = 34mph
%> Above speed limit = 36%
%> 15mph > Speed Limit = 0%


Wareham Road, Corfe Mullen, Wimborne

Quote:
Speed Limit = 30 mph

Speed Baseline Data: October 2002
85th %ile = 38mph
%> Above speed limit = 66%
%> 15mph > Speed Limit = 1%

Most recent speed survey data: May 2004
85th %ile = 38mph
%> Above speed limit = 69%
%> 15mph > Speed Limit = 1%


On these two sites the camera and the telemetry data collection box are quite far apart. Plenty of room to change speed. Sandford camera shows a slight decrease in speed, Corfe Mullen one shows an increase! (err it is me or are the cameras meant to make people slow down?)

Put the camera slightly nearer the box and you get a more noticable change:
Fleets Lane, Poole
Quote:
Speed Limit = 30mph

Speed Baseline Data:
85th %ile = 42mph
%> Above speed limit = 77%
%> 15mph > Speed Limit = 8%

Most recent speed survey data: May 2004
85th %ile = 35mph
%> Above speed limit = 59%
%> 15mph > Speed Limit = 0


Put the camera "on top of" the data collection box and magically everyone has slowed down, wow!
A338 Wessex Way, Queens Park
Quote:
Speed Limit = 50mph

Speed Baseline Data:
85th %ile = 57
%> Above speed limit = 56
%> 15mph > Speed Limit = 2

Most recent speed survey data – August 2004
85th %ile = 49
%> Above speed limit = 10
%> 15mph > Speed Limit = 0%


Just another way to show how meaningful statistics are :wink:

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Andrew.


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 Post subject: Re: Skewed statistics
PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2005 12:34 
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Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 01:48
Posts: 526
Location: Netherlands
Ziltro wrote:
As we all know, most people hit the brakes for the camera then speed up afterwards.

Great post Ziltro, indeed interesting to see in "black and white" how localised the effects of speed cameras are on the vehicle speeds. I don't know what the distances are, but I would reckon that most people only slow down for 100 to 300 metres around the actual camera in most cases.

And for the rest of the time all these responsible, careful, low-risk drivers have an extra distraction to worry about as they scan the horizon for cameras that are positioned at sites where the numeric speed limit has little relation to actual road safety :x .

Surely this is an excellent example of a system where badly motivated and poorly executed implementation has destroyed the trust of the public and thus removed any benefits the system was intended to facilitate. :soapbox:

Hmmm, I like that statement, think it deserves a separate thread...


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