Safe Speed Forums

Apologies if this seems a touch macabre, but it's an important topic.

In 2002 there were 3431 fatalities on the roads of Great Britain.

We have huge numbers of additional speed cameras, reduced speed limits and road hump schemes.

But will these really improve safety?

How many road fatalities do you believe there will be in Great Britain in 2003?

_________________
"Show me someone who says that they have never exceeded a speed limit, and I'll show you a liar, or a menace." (Austin Williams - Director, Transport Research Group)

Any views expressed in this post are personal opinions and may not represent the views of Safe Speed

I've been gathering data for 2003 fatalities from official web sites and newspaper reports. With 37% of the total fatality figures available we have an overall 6.2% rise. The same basket of 19 counties showed an insignificant change between 2001 and 2002.

If the changes in the 19 counties are typical, and if they don't manage to fiddle the figures we WILL see national fatalities of 3,625 for 2003.

You can download the latest spreadsheet from:

http://www.safespeed.org.uk/2003.xls

There are potential reasons for thinking the figures may not be typical:

1) They do not include any large urban areas.
2) There might be a bias against releasing bad figures earlier than absolutely necessary.

And reasons for assuming the figures may well be typical:

1) 2001 to 2002 changes for the same basket of counties were well aligned with national figures (i.e. no change)
2) We have no solid basis for thinking that they are NOT typical, so it's best to assume they are.

So I voted for 3,600+.

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Paul Smith
Our scrap speed cameras petition got over 28,000 sigs
The Safe Speed campaign demands a return to intelligent road safety

Anyone know why it takes so long for these figures to come out? You
would think they'd have a pretty good idea on Jan 1st, give or take a
few hospitalised cases who might die later.

The obvious answer is that the picture is bad, and requires all the
statistical massage skills the authorities can muster. But could there be a
legitimate explaination?

For as long as I've been taking an interest in the subject, the previous year's fatality figures have not been officially released until June, so I wouldn't read anything sinister into this.

However, as many areas have already released figures, I don't see why a national indicative figure could not be published much earlier, but subject to minor revision later.

Regards,

Peter

_________________
"Show me someone who says that they have never exceeded a speed limit, and I'll show you a liar, or a menace." (Austin Williams - Director, Transport Research Group)

Any views expressed in this post are personal opinions and may not represent the views of Safe Speed

Thanks PeterE, I'll try not to be too cynical then.

Looking at Paul's spreadsheet there seem to be roughly 1-2 fatalities
per county per week. Each presumably requires a police investigation
and results in some sort of computerised record, so I'd have thought
provisional figures were readily available.[/quote]

June is here.. drumming fingers..

rgds
bill

The figures will be released on Thursday 24th June (which happens to be my birthday )

_________________
"Show me someone who says that they have never exceeded a speed limit, and I'll show you a liar, or a menace." (Austin Williams - Director, Transport Research Group)

Any views expressed in this post are personal opinions and may not represent the views of Safe Speed

and brunstrom is on radio four 7 am on the saturday.. they already know the answer.. it has to be that 100 saved lives they leaked last week..

hmmph..

rgds
bill

100 saved lives from 5000 cameras.

Only need to erect another 170,000 of the buggers then.

So now we know the final figure was 3508, which 21% of respondents voted for

Perhaps it would be a little ghoulish to start a poll for the 2004 figures - but I'd be amazed if the headline number went back down to the low 3400s.

As long as the authorities continue to apply the wrong remedies things are not going to improve.

_________________
"Show me someone who says that they have never exceeded a speed limit, and I'll show you a liar, or a menace." (Austin Williams - Director, Transport Research Group)

Any views expressed in this post are personal opinions and may not represent the views of Safe Speed

As normal I am a little slow with all these numbers.


Now then, last year 2002, it was 3431 killed.

this year it was 3508.

If my maths are anywhere near correct that is an INCREASE of 77 more or less.

So the question is , where did they get the spin , cameras saved 100 people from ??


rgds
bill

It could be that with so much anti-car policy (eg the London congestion charge, increasing of CPZ), they are pushing more people into the more dangerous form of travel - 2 wheels (especially scooters and mopeds rather than pushbikes and higher powered motorbikes).

You must also take into account the big freeze of 30 January 2003, which may alone have been enough to force the numbers up.

Yes Earl , you may well be right,

But, why is it the claim was for speed cameras having saved 100 lives, when the number had actually gone up.

It would seem that black is now white. Or is it just pure desperation .

Next year when the deaths go down by one , my guess is we will have a national bank holiday to celebrate the success of the speed camera.

rgds
bill