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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 22:57 
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weepej wrote:
My suggestion is that rather than try to hit 35mph (which many people seem to think is an OK speed to get to in a 30 zone) they'd aim for a max 25 because its a 20 zone.

They would moderate their maximum speed due to the maximum limit (although we know that people push the limit of this and the two are not often the same).

A 10mph reduction in maximum instantaneous speed in residential areas can only be a good thing, it would give people more time to react to adverse situations, and ensure any impact has, well less impact generally.

Assuming drivers will exceed the limit by the same margin is quite an assumption, especially if the road previously safely held traffic at 30mph (or even 35).

My problem is the result of your assumption being incorrect. That being so, it's not good for those who base their actions on what they expect from others.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 23:46 
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weepej wrote:
A 10mph reduction in maximum instantaneous speed in residential areas can only be a good thing, it would give people more time to react to adverse situations, and ensure any impact has, well less impact generally.


Believe that if you want to!

It is my belief that the more likely outcome is that people are more likely to:

(a) pay less attention and, in fact, simply "switch off" rather than concentrate on what's going on;

(b) fall into the very dangerous trap of assuming that as the authorities are so zealous on speed enforcement, speed must be the only thing that matters and therefore stop trying to constantly evaluate the conditions for themselves and drive at an appropriate speed. This is common enough behaviour as it is. Just ask any traffic copper how many times he's heard the first words following an accident: "but I wasn't speeding officer"!

(c) pay MUCH more attention to their speedos as they try to eke the very last decimal of an MPH out of their car whilst remaining JUST below the prosecution threshold.

- and that's just the "law abiding" ones. Those who really don't care will just clone more number plates and / or register their vehicles to bogus addresses and drive at whatever speed they like.

My gloomy predicion is that the number of accidents in the new 20MPHareas will probably (at best) remain static but (most likely) go up. The only saving grace might be that the severity of those accidents will go down slightly as more "pedestrian friendly" cars filter into the national fleet - therby enabling the speed limit enforcement fanatics to claim that the whole pathetic sham has been a roaring success. :roll:

Of course, I COULD be wrong, I freely admit that, but in the last ten years of increasingly draconian speed limit enforcement, we've seen a corresponding halt in the downward trend that gave us the safest roads in Europe (which we don't have any more)! (despite pretty much every scamera partnership in the land claiming huge reductions in KSIs on "their patch"!


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 00:00 
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More silly shunts occur in 20 mph crawls s :roll:


Could breed complacency - but as one cyclist found out. If the person hits head at the wrong angle.. death can result.


Just apply COAST.. try not to hit anyone or anything :roll: :popcorn: But use each COAST principle. It reduces likelihood of the"suddenly/from nowheres" at any speed in the legal range :wink:

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 20:15 
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RobinXe wrote:
So hjeg2 and weepej, if I have this correct, you believe that people driving above the prosecution threshold in a given speed limit zone are still taking the speed limit as an input to their speed selection process.


Well done! God almighty, how long did it take you to understand that.

RobinXe wrote:
This doesn't really make much sense when you consider that they'll be just as guilty, and punished, for 37 as 39 or 41.


But in reality they are less likely to be pulled over. But yes, they are just as guilty.

RobinXe wrote:
If they've chosen to discard the limit for whatever reason, then I'd be surprised if they were still adhering to a modified function of it.

I would expect that the anecdotal examples you cite are more likely to be drivers selecting a safe speed for the conditions. A road may well be suitable for 70mph but, if a significant proportion of it's users are doing 40mph or less, then 70 is unlikely to be prudent.

On the other hand, they could also be examples of speed limits that have seen set by rounding down the 85th %ile speed, where you would expect to see the statistically safest drivers being a little over the limit.

There are loads of reasons why 20mph zones are a bad idea, being used as a tool to second-guess drivers' speeding behavior in order to enforce a higher "limit" would be another!


Hey, I was just telling you what I thought was quite likely to happen.

RobinXe wrote:
Incidentally hjeg, in pretty much every English-speaking country, 'Bearing in mind' has an "e" in it, just a minor point I'm sure you'll agree. :lol:


Yes, Robin, I made a spelling mistake, fair enough. :lol: I have no problem whatsoever with someone pointing that out to me. So the question is, why do you get so upset or annoyed when someone points it out to you?


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 20:25 
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Ooh, ace, you're back! Same old circles, same weak argument!

hjeg2 wrote:
But in reality they are less likely to be pulled over.


They're not very likely to be pulled over anyway, more likely to encounter a speed camera, which will make the magnitude of any minor infringement irrelevant. So thats a red herring.

I don't get angry about spelling mistakes, I'm too busy laughing at you :lol:


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 00:56 
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RobinXe wrote:
Ooh, ace, you're back! Same old circles, same weak argument!


Care to actually mention any weak arguments, or are you just saying that because you like to put down anyone who disagrees with you?

RobinXe wrote:
hjeg2 wrote:
But in reality they are less likely to be pulled over.


They're not very likely to be pulled over anyway, more likely to encounter a speed camera, which will make the magnitude of any minor infringement irrelevant. So thats a red herring.


But people slow down to the speed limit for speed cameras, so that's not relevant.

RobinXe wrote:
I don't get angry about spelling mistakes, I'm too busy laughing at you :lol:


Well maybe if you weren't so busy laughing at me it wouldn't have taken a dozen posts from me explaining a very simple observation. It's sad but you clearly don't realise just how stupid you actually are.


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 09:00 
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It's sad but you clearly don't realise just how stupid you actually are.


Now, now, play nicely.


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 14:49 
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I've clearly pulled the wool over Mensa's eyes too. How stupid of me! :lol:

A dozen posts explaining something that had already been picked apart, how articulate of you!

The fact remains that there are a multitude of issues with setting speed limits lower than the desired speed, including, but not restricted to, the unexplored crash severity implications of 20mph zones, the enforcement and morality issues of having a prosecution threshold lower than the "desired" maximum speed for the zone, and the clear danger of assuming a mentality and assuming it will apply to all drivers. You've addressed none of these, merely offered assertions, assumptions and anecdotes, none of which form a sound basis for road-safety policy.

Speed limits below the safest free-flowing speed for a road, largely accepted as being the 85th %ile speed, reduce the capacity of our road network and delay road-users unnecessarily. They also have the potential to increase the risk, even if it is only by a fraction of a unit. Whilst 20mph may come to replace the 85th %ile as the best-practice safest speed, it should not do so without study and understanding to the high level that is already available for it's rival. Road safety policy needs to be based on a holistic understanding of all it's facets, not assumptions based on simple physics or amateur psychology.

EDIT: Admins, please don't rush to action over my debating partner's ad hominem comments, I am sure they were born of a frustration at the futility of his standpoint, and I take no offence by them.


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 15:15 
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I don’t think it's not problematic enough to warrant action.
Play on!


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2007 19:36 
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RobinXe wrote:
I've clearly pulled the wool over Mensa's eyes too. How stupid of me! :lol:


Mensa??? :lol: :lol: :lol:

RobinXe wrote:
A dozen posts explaining something that had already been picked apart, how articulate of you!


Robin, I was perfectly articulate. Would you like us to go over my very first post on this thread and your very first reply? You would then see that you hadn't understood what I was saying from the very first simply post. That can't possibly be a problem with me.

And what way has my observation been picked apart? We are getting MORE 20-limits, not less!!!

RobinXe wrote:
The fact remains that there are a multitude of issues with setting speed limits lower than the desired speed, including, but not restricted to, the unexplored crash severity implications of 20mph zones, the enforcement and morality issues of having a prosecution threshold lower than the "desired" maximum speed for the zone, and the clear danger of assuming a mentality and assuming it will apply to all drivers.


All I was doing was coming out with my observation!!!

RobinXe wrote:
You've addressed none of these, merely offered assertions, assumptions and anecdotes, none of which form a sound basis for road-safety policy.


Robin, all I've ever wished to do was come out with my observation!!! I have NOT tried to do any more you fucking idiot!!!!!

RobinXe wrote:
Speed limits below the safest free-flowing speed for a road, largely accepted as being the 85th %ile speed, reduce the capacity of our road network and delay road-users unnecessarily.


All I was doing was coming out with my observation!!!

RobinXe wrote:
They also have the potential to increase the risk, even if it is only by a fraction of a unit.


All I was doing was coming out with my observation!!!

RobinXe wrote:
Whilst 20mph may come to replace the 85th %ile as the best-practice safest speed, it should not do so without study and understanding to the high level that is already available for it's rival.


All I was doing was coming out with my observation!!!

RobinXe wrote:
Road safety policy needs to be based on a holistic understanding of all it's facets, not assumptions based on simple physics or amateur psychology.


All I was doing was coming out with my observation!!!

RobinXe wrote:
EDIT: Admins, please don't rush to action over my debating partner's ad hominem comments, I am sure they were born of a frustration at the futility of his standpoint, and I take no offence by them.


I don't have a standpoint, I have merely been making an observation!!! And I certainly am frustrated now because you clearly don't understand what I've been trying to do all along.

And again, as I see that you have deliberately ignored it, what 'weak' arguments have I come out with?


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2007 19:41 
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Robin, I can see that you pretty much ignored this long post of mine... Found that you didn't have the intelligence to reply to it head on did you?

hjeg2 wrote:
RobinXe wrote:
hjeg2 wrote:
That's right. Remember me talking about driving at 37 in a 30? Yes? Well, apply that to a 20.


I thought you weren't suggesting that their transgression above any given limit would be a constant or calculated function of the limit?


I wasn’t, Robin, but you were saying:
“Essentially, the crux of your argument seems to be that people who drive a little faster than 30mph in 30 limits are doing so because they are intentionally breaking the law "but only by a little bit". You suppose that in a 20 limit, that "little bit" would be small enough to keep them under 30mph.”

The point here is that I didn’t write those bits that you are apparently quoting. (For the record, and this is a minor thing, I see “these” as quotes and ‘these’ as inverted commas, the two having different meanings. I accept that very few people might do things that way though.) All along I have been talking about the example of 37 in a 30. So as in that example the speed is enough to keep them under 40mph, then why wouldn’t an equivalent amount above the law in a 20 zone be under 30mph?

RobinXe wrote:
Without emulating your annoying habit of slicing up loads of quotes,


If you mean by "quotes" your posts, then look who's talking you hypocrite! You sliced up my posts! And as for annoying habits how about your one of constantly trying to put down your opponent? Not your opponent’s points but your opponent.

RobinXe wrote:
let me run through some of the rest of your "points" in order:


Oooh, how clever, putting the word points in quotes.

RobinXe wrote:
The police have very little opportunity to take anything into account these days, since most enforcement is performed by automatons or civilians.


“Most” enforcement? On what do you base that? Baring in mind that almost all speed cameras are of the ‘spot’ type, how much of the road network is covered by them? When average-speed cameras come down in price enough so that they can be used a lot then things will be different; I would then suggest that we will stick with 30-limits. But until then, what I have been talking about all along is police enforcement, which as I think you agree is very limited. So we come back to what you said before: “It doesn't matter how you think the zones will be enforced, there are already laws and guidelines about enforcement, and in the absence of replacements, that is how they must be enforced.”

Which is why I then spoke about limited police resources. Which means that they can’t pull over everyone who is just doing a few miles an hour over the limit, and besides, if they did start doing that then (I believe) the public would moan like hell. Which is why I believe that we’re going to end up with 20-limits all over the place. Are you beginning to understand where I’m coming from yet?

RobinXe wrote:
I don't need to tell the police this, ACPO has.


So you won’t know then that the reply would be: “We ain’t got the resources, guv”. So you can talk all you want about how the zones “must be enforced”, but in reality that isn’t going to happen (in my opinion and observation again), so is why we are going to end up with 20-limits all over the place. Are you beginning to understand yet?

RobinXe wrote:
I'm surprised you need examples pointed out to you when its in the previous paragraph.


What is in the previous paragraph? If you mean your misreading of my position over what speed in relation to the speed limit that I think a lot of people do, then it’s no good trying to turn things around and blame me – it’s quite clearly you who is at fault.

Here’s a good example for you: I said in my first post “I haven't read this whole thread but I'm going to take a wild guess and assume that the vast majority of people on here think that …”

And you replied “it does not shock me in the least that you have merely read the one other post on this page of the thread and decided to make sweeping inferrences from it. Quelle surprise!”

Do you see, Robin? It’s your lack of understanding, or thought, or engaging the brain or something that’s the problem here.

RobinXe wrote:
Imagine the "quotes" to be me waving my fingers in the air in a mildly sarcastic fashion.


That’s pretty stupid when your ‘quotes’ are just made up, don’t you think?

RobinXe wrote:
Anyway, you've taken to clogging up the thread with ever-lengthening cut-and-shut posts without really introducing anything new or relevant,


How can I be clogging up the thread when nothing has been posted on it for over three days? As for introducing anything new or relevant, I did that in my first post, just giving my thoughts on the situation, and ever since then you’ve been arguing about them basically for no reason. As for ever-lengthening “cut-and-shut” (whatever that means) posts, I’ve just been replying to your posts, and it’s been you who has kept misreading or not understand what I’ve been saying (which is why it’s kept going for so long).

RobinXe wrote:
so I would suggest that we limit ourselves to discussing the topic at hand,


Robin, that’s what I wanted to do to start with, but then you said:
“Welcome back hjeg, remind me why you're now on #2? Is this a trolling game you're playing with your buddies to see how high you can iterate?

Also, it does not shock me in the least that you have merely read the one other post on this page of the thread and decided to make sweeping inferrences from it. Quelle surprise!”

RobinXe wrote:
and that you pm me with any further issues involving my spelling,


You see, you’re being obsessive again. I mention the way you spell the word “behaviour” once and then you go on and on about it. It’s just like last time when you got really annoyed at me pulling you up on misreading your own link about the word “no-one”, and then you started lying about how important I saw it. Why can’t you be humble for once and accept that you’re in no way perfect?

RobinXe wrote:
debating style


I’m not sure specifically what you are referring to here.

RobinXe wrote:
or understanding, so that I can give them the damned good ignoring they warrant.


But your understanding, or lack of it, coupled with your over-confidence (you could say arrogance) that you’re always right, is a big problem in trying to have a mature debate.

It seems to me to be very common on this site for people to be rather sure of themselves and to come out with insults at the first sign of disagreement.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2007 19:53 
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I just love a thread with huge chunks of utterly pointless quoting in.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2007 20:28 
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Johnnytheboy wrote:
I just love a thread with huge chunks of utterly pointless quoting in.


Unfortunately there isn't any other option when someone goes on at you and then doesn't respond when you reply to their points. Blame Robin in other words.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2007 11:19 
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hjeg2 wrote:
Robin, all I've ever wished to do was come out with my observation!!! I have NOT tried to do any more you fucking idiot!!!!!


Now then, that's a bit strong! I'm still laughing at how wound up you're getting at being proven wrong, but this sort of tone will not be appreciated by many here, and would certainly be off-putting to anyone new wanting to contribute to the debate. I'd suggest you take a moment of quiet next time, rather than rush to post your vitriolic invective, lest the admins take the opinion that putting up with your bile is not worth it for your meagre contribution.

hjeg2 wrote:
Robin, I can see that you pretty much ignored this long post of mine... Found that you didn't have the intelligence to reply to it head on did you?


More ad hominem?! Oh dear, you really are struggling today aren't you. I really have no need, or desire, to prove my intelligence to you, the only person, or organisation, who seems to doubt it! :lol:

I can assure you, I read your post. If I did not, however, specifically quote it in it's entirety and put my response to each part directly below it, so that you could see it was being addressed, then it was because it did not warrant that level of attention, and it's repetition would merely have made the thread longer and harder to read. I have certainly taken it on-board in order to build a greater understanding of your mindset and point of view.

A quick skim through your conveniently located repost of it's totality yields merely one point worthy of note:

You balk at the concept that most enforcement of speed limits is conducted by automatons or civilians. Do you honestly believe that human police officers issue more speeding tickets in the UK than the cameras and partnerships? The figures are available to prove that this is not the case, but I am disinclined to go to the time and effort of tracking down and compiling them when the outcome is already so obvious, and particularly so as its you.

You then go on to say, hopefully because you realise the veracity of the previous point, that all along you have only been concerning yourself with police enforcement :roll:

Hopefully you can understand that, once again, the majority of enforcement in 20mph zones will be by machine (once they have rushed something through the type rating system to suit), and that there is absolutely no evidence that the prosecution threshold would be set any higher than the absolute minimum required to routinely secure convictions and maintain the cash-flow.

Its all very well moaning about how you're only reporting your observations, which is absolutely fine, but its the assumptions you've based on these anecdotal accounts that are flawed. You know, the ones about driver behaviour (sic) and psychology, and enforcement/prosecution levels and limits.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2007 11:57 
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RobinXe wrote:
Speed limits below the safest free-flowing speed for a road, largely accepted as being the 85th %ile speed, reduce the capacity of our road network and delay road-users unnecessarily. They also have the potential to increase the risk, even if it is only by a fraction of a unit. Whilst 20mph may come to replace the 85th %ile as the best-practice safest speed, it should not do so without study and understanding to the high level that is already available for it's rival. Road safety policy needs to be based on a holistic understanding of all it's facets, not assumptions based on simple physics or amateur psychology.
[emphasis added]

Robin - text emphasised above indicates you have a basic misconception about the 'safety' significance of 85%ile speed. As I understand it (and I'm afraid I can not link to specific authorities) the "safest" (i.e. least crash involved) drivers tend to drive at or around the 85%ile speed.

IT DOES NOT FOLLOW AND IT IS QUITE WRONG TO ASSERT that the 85%ile speed is the "safest" speed at which to drive.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2007 12:33 
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No, I quite agree, and that was not what I intended to convey.

There is, of course, a bell-curve, and the safest drivers are indeed those that drove at around the 85th %ile speed. I say drove because that measurement is no longer possible given speed limits; it was free-flowing speed. What this does mean is that those who drive much faster or slower than this speed are a higher accident risk.

It was on these grounds that the 85th %ile rule was used as a basis for setting speed limits. No such research exists to support the use of 20mph limits, indeed, the only research that is available shows that accidents within them are more severe! It is on these grounds that I urge caution before adopting blanket 20mph limits.

The safest speed of course varies continually based on road, weather and traffic conditions, along with vehicle and driver performance and daylight or lack thereof. It was therefore a bad choice of words on my part, and perhaps 'safest speed' should be substituted with 'safest speed limit', or perhaps even 'speed limit which gives the optimal balance between safety and progress', being that which does not artificially hamper the safest group of drivers.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2007 13:21 
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RobinXe wrote:
No, I quite agree, and that was not what I intended to convey.

There is, of course, a bell-curve, and the safest drivers are indeed those that drove at around the 85th %ile speed. I say drove because that measurement is no longer possible given speed limits; it was free-flowing speed. What this does mean is that those who drive much faster or slower than this speed are a higher accident risk.


Sorry to be picky but that still isn't quite right because it implies that it is the choice of speed that is 'less safe'. A safe driver (driving safely) will choose a safe speed. Because the driver is a 'safe' driver, his/her level of competence and hazard awareness means that speed selected will frequently be at or around the 85%ile speed. However, a safe driver may sometimes choose to drive (safely) at a speed that is below or above the 85%ile speed (it is probably unlikely to be far above or far below, or not for an extended period).

Appreciation of the true significance of the correlation between the 85%ile speed and the 'safest' drivers helps to reach the understanding, which many people have failed to grasp (I'm not saying you're one of them), that speed selection is an output of the safe driving process, not an input to it.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2007 14:13 
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Again, I agree, though your inference is incorrect. It is a material fact that in the case of the free-flowing conditions of the 85th %ile study, those that drove significantly faster or slower were a higher risk-group.

Of course, they were not necessarily higher risk purely because they drove faster or slower; as you say, speed selection is an output of the driving process. It remains, however, that the powers-that-be used to take their cues for speed limit setting from the statistically safest group of drivers. Now they take them from pressure groups, misguided grievers, NIMBYs and those with vested interests in their enforcement.

Please remember, we are talking about speeds at which to set limits here, not speeds for all to drive at. As mentioned elsewhere, and alluded to here, merely because the statistically safest drivers were those around the 85th %ile, does not mean that any other driver driving at that speed will automatically become safer.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2007 15:20 
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RobinXe wrote:
Again, I agree, though your inference is incorrect. It is a material fact that in the case of the free-flowing conditions of the 85th %ile study, those that drove significantly faster or slower were a higher risk-group.

Of course, they were not necessarily higher risk purely because they drove faster or slower; as you say, speed selection is an output of the driving process. It remains, however, that the powers-that-be used to take their cues for speed limit setting from the statistically safest group of drivers. Now they take them from pressure groups, misguided grievers, NIMBYs and those with vested interests in their enforcement.


I'm not sure what "your inference is incorrect" refers to. I think I was warning against an incorrect inference.

Anyway, I know it can be quite difficult to achieve complete clarity of meaning. The primary point I was seeking to make is that a person who generally drives substantially more slowly than 85%ile speed will not become a safer driver by virtue of increasing the speed at which he generally drives to or towards 85%ile speed.

There is an asymmetry here - although it cannot be conclusively asserted that a driver who 'generally' drives substantially above 85% speed will become a safer driver by virtue of reducing speed, there is nevertheless an inherent reduction in risk.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2007 15:39 
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Observer wrote:
The primary point I was seeking to make is that a person who generally drives substantially more slowly than 85%ile speed will not become a safer driver by virtue of increasing the speed at which he generally drives to or towards 85%ile speed.


I was thinking just this as I was out, and must have added words to the same effect to my previous post mere moments before you made yours. Great minds eh :D

Also for clarity: I was not trying to imply what you infered :P


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