GreenShed wrote:
Your "fundamental confounding factors" are nothing more than assumptions on your part and have no supporting base.
Are you having a laugh?
Firstly there's RTTM and long-term trends, which has been already shown to be responsible for ~80% of the fall of KSIs at urban camera sites (more for rural); I'm sure you know the Four Year Report well enough to accept this as fact. Yet the SCPs continue to mislead the public into believing the cameras are responsible for the entire fall of KSIs.
Don't you think that's nothing short of outright deception?Don't you think there is a problem with the confounding factor of 'bias on selection', where additional safety features at camera sites result with a reduction of KSI, that reduction being nothing to do with the camera site? I did already say to you (within the post I just linked to you, something else you never acknowledged) "
Camera success is indeed measured in KSI reduction, but many other things cause KSI reduction, even at camera sites; hence so it follows that the standard measure for camera success, as you have quoted it, is an false one."
Is this not reason enough to accept it as a fundamental confounding factor? If not the please explain to all of us why you believe it isn't.
I think Odin gave a
great example of the issue "
to generate a non-existent benefit from a speed limit reduction"; oddly enough this is something else you didn't acknowledge.
What about:
- reduced exposure ('push'ed displacement to non-control roads),
- less overall travel (prohibitive fuel costs, credit crunch),
- concerted crackdown of other offences (e.g. driving while impaired),
Are you really going to say we should reject these as confounding factors because those who have the resource to gather the relevant data (usually those who benefit from the fines their efforts generates) haven't done so?
Do you really believe all these factors should simply be outright ignored whilst letting the SCPs wrongly claim the amount of success that they do without accounting for these obvious factors?
The RTTM argument previously had 'no base' as you put it, but look at the statistical damage that one alone did!