Excuse my delay in responding, I've had a lot to contend with recently.
Peyote wrote:
[of RTTM and bias on selection]
I'll think I can accept that mistakes have been made in the calculations of the benefits that the SCP have said can be attributed to cameras. Whether this means that all cameras can be said to have no benefits I do not think is correct.
...
I'd agree with this too. However, again it doesn't discount that cameras can provide real benefits.
Which is fair comment - if taken in isolation.
However, would you agree that there is a real and significant chance that, until all these factors are properly accounted for, the claims that 'cameras are proven to have saved lives' is actually incorrect; also, there is again a real possibility that the overall benefit could actually be negative?
Peyote wrote:
This is dependent on what your own personal view of the cameras is. A conspiracy theorist could say that it is "outright misleading" and a form of "deception". Someone more jaded and cynical could just as validly claim that it is yet another example of the spin we're all constantly exposed to!
I'd rather not base our safety policies on "economical truths". However, if those economical truths are simply exaggerating an existing benefit then I can think of many more importnat issues to get worked up over!
Again I agree, but there's
exaggerating an existing benefit, and there's
claiming one where it possibly could not exist at all.
Yes there are more important things in life to worry about, but I feel this simple debate gives people enough tangible reasoning to realise they should be thinking more critically about claims and interests.
They way these claims are spun
implies cameras are responsible for that level of KSI reduction ('before and after', 'at camera sites'), which goes well beyond being 'economical with the truth'. That kind of description guides the reader to believe it is the presence of the camera that led to the KSI reduction.
Be honest, it appears you thought that was the case before RTTM and bias on selection (BOS) was explained to you, yes? Surely your recognition of these factors is case in point? (you're not the only one - I fell for it too).
Peyote wrote:
I'm not convinced this is an opinion that is representative of the entire population. There are still many people who support the use of cameras.
Of course (but I don't believe the majority support them any more), but do you think that the level of support would have been greatly reduced if everyone had been educated about RTTM and BOS and how they apply to camera effectiveness? Should that opinion be representative of a population who understands the issues we're explaining?
Peyote wrote:
The disrespect for the law and lawlessness was always there, cameras haven't increased them, they've just made it harder for those who do disrespect the law and wish to act in a lawless manner to get away with it!
Now I completely disagree; the great majority of drivers don't drive with the intent of exceeding a speed limit.
Those who do want to act in a lawless manner (such as wanting to exceed the speed limit) can now get away with it. Remember, cameras only allow identification of those who
allow themselves to be identified.
Peyote wrote:
Agreed, misrepresentation should be tackled. Those who police us should be held to account. I'm just not convinced the arguments against speed cameras are that valid.
You must agree that the case for speed cameras is greatly exaggerated and can now understand how we are not convinced about the case for them.
Peyote wrote:
Steve wrote:
I think anyone will have difficulty defending the SCPs from a charge of fraud (gaining an advantage via a known deception). Speed cameras have created an obvious conflict of interest (financial and political); be wary of those who defend them without accepting both RTTM and 'bias on selection'.
IMO: all SCPs should be disbanded for their reprehensible conduct within the road safety debate.
Well, that's one opinion anyway!
Can one reasonably argue against it?
Peyote wrote:
I think you've hit the nail on the head though with the fact that speed cameras may be defendable while taking into account RTTM and 'bias on selection'.
Yes they may be, but we already know the effectiveness has been overstated by a factor of 550% (even higher for non-urban roads), and thanks to BOS that could end up being more than infinitely higher (change of sign), hence the current set of SCP claims aren't defendable. Do you agree?
Peyote wrote:
Again we're back to opinions. I'm afraid I disagree. Cameras could/can be/are a useful tool and their use should be continued with appropriate open and honest reviewing.
What do we do if the reviewing hasn't been honest - for the last 5 years, and continues to be anything but honest? Does that not suggest anything to you?
Peyote wrote:
Is there even a link between trafpol reduction and increased camera use? I've heard it mentioned but never seen any evidence, indeed camera proponents point to a decrease in trafpol coinciding with an incease in policing in other areas (anti social behaviour, burglaries, street crime etc.)
We know trafpol numbers have declined during the time that reliance on speed cameras have increased. We know the effectiveness of speed cameras has been greatly over-exaggerated (at minimum) and that system has gained the cost recovery system (yet the more effective yet honest trafpol didn't) so making them appear to be 'for free'.
No real study has been done on this link (not surprising really), but you have to agree that it does make logical sense, more so given the lack of any argument against.
Would you agree that this is another factor that must be reviewed openly and honestly?
If we as a society do not demand factors such as these to be reviewed openly and honestly (in good time), who is cutting off their nose?