teabelly wrote:
An interesting little snippet that I found in a journal:
Apart from incentive programmes, there is one other factor that has repeatedly been shown to have a major effect on the accident rate. This is the business cycle . Whenever the economy is in an upswing, the traffic death rate per head of population increases, whereas it drops during recessions (Adams, 1985; Partyka, 1984).
Yes, I've noted this effect too. You can see the effect comparing these graphs
Note the late 80s boom and early 90s bust.
from:
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/stats/graphs.html
Since we're talking about the RATE (i.e. the number killed per billion vehicle kilometres) it isn't obvious how this works. Clearly if we are wealthier we should expect more traffic to result in more death - but this effect goes beyond that and and if we're in a boom the risk of death per mile driven is greater. Possible reasons for higher risk in wealthier times:
* more leisure driving, and leisure driving is riskier
* more business driving and business driving is riskier
* more exuberance
* more distraction
* more driving in unfamiliar new vehicles
* faster traffic growth allows less time for drivers to adapt to higher traffic levels
I'm sure there could be more reasons. I don't much like the look of any of the reasons on that list.