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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2005 21:09 
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basingwerk wrote:
Hm... if the 1960 figure was (mad scrolling back to wikipedia page) 0.0315, and it is increased (as you say) by 1.16, then it would be (hmm... more furious scribbling and jotting of notes) 0.0365, which is a little short of the actual figure, 0.038. So, the answer is > 1.2, or > 20%. But I said the 50’s, not the sixties.

So let's stop splitting hairs - can we agree that ~22% - 24% is right?


Actually , 0.038/0.0365 = 3.174 - which is +17.4%. Get a new calculator!

In any case, I make the current figure somewhere around 0.0365 to 0.0370 from the graph. Where do you get 0.038 from?

As an aside, 300ppm is 0.0003 Your 0.03 is actually 0.03 percent.
That's about 0.3cc of CO2 in every litre of atmosphere.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2005 21:30 
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basingwerk wrote:
Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, the atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased by approximately 110 µL/L or about 40%, most of it released since 1945.


The measured CO2 levels only go back to 1958. The levels before that date are obtained from ice cores and other proxy data.
Funnily enough, the ice core data shows CO2 levels from the 1800s to be very similar to today's - which is why they came up with the bizarre theory that the air trapped in ice cores is 80 to 100 years younger than the ice.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2005 22:05 
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Pete317 wrote:

Actually, 0.038/0.0365 = 3.174 - which is +17.4%. Get a new calculator!



Are you posting from a mobile phone, or are you drunk?

If 0.038/0.0365 = 3.174, I'd eat my hat.

And if 3.174 is 17.4%, I'd eat SafeSpeed's hat!

And if 0.0365 was anywhere near the CO2 level in 1960, I'd eat your hat!!

In short, the level in '60 was 0.0315, and the level in 2005 was 0.038.
And 20% of 0.0315 is 0.0063, and 0.0315 + 0.0063 is 0.0378, which is close enough for government work.

If not, you are right and I do need a new calculator!

Pete317 wrote:

In any case, I make the current figure somewhere around 0.0365 to 0.0370 from the graph. Where do you get 0.038 from?


RTFA - as of 2004, the earth's atmosphere is about 0.038% by volume (380 µL/L or ppmv)

Pete317 wrote:

As an aside, 300ppm is 0.0003 Your 0.03 is actually 0.03 percent.
That's about 0.3cc of CO2 in every litre of atmosphere.


Fine, but perhaps irrelevant via the "turd in a swimming pool" argument? It doesn't matter how big is the pool, just how big is the turd!

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2005 22:26 
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basingwerk wrote:

Are you posting from a mobile phone, or are you drunk?

If 0.038/0.0365 = 3.174, I'd eat my hat.


OK, I hold up my hand to that one. Don't know what I did there, must have pushed the wrong button.

Quote:
RTFA - as of 2004, the earth's atmosphere is about 0.038% by volume (380 µL/L or ppmv)


I was looking at the graph (and I said as much) - which doesn't go up to 2004.

Quote:
Fine, but perhaps irrelevant via the "turd in a swimming pool" argument? It doesn't matter how big is the pool, just how big is the
turd!


Turds are made from CO2? :o
It's still irrelevant - as you would know if you bothered to study the physics.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2005 22:37 
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Location: Treacletown ( just north of M6 J3),A MILE OR TWO PAST BEDROCK
Gents - before blood flows, please read the initial post ---

(Before i get a pasting , this is written tongue in cheekee)

This morning like just about every other motorist in the uk, i de iced the car. I drove to work on salt treated roads waiting untill my heater had warmed up enough to thaw me out. Got to work, thawed out the works van , just in case i had to go somewhere.Stayed inside as much as possible as temperatures were about zero. Saw news about parts of Wales having blizards.At stopping time i got in car, fortunately not frozen up, but cold.Waited till heater warm, then enjoyed heat.Tonight i'm on night shift , on standby, so thermals will be needed along with a van with a decent heater.
Tonight i went out and the temp on the car display was -1.5.


So can someone please tell me why we are suffering from GLOBAL WARMING, AND if we are THANK GOD.( Otherwise it might be artic temperatures in the midlands)


I'd feel guilty if blood flowed, since i started it.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 09:13 
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Pete317 wrote:
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Fine, but perhaps irrelevant via the "turd in a swimming pool" argument? It doesn't matter how big is the pool, just how big is the turd!
Turds are made from CO2? :o
It's still irrelevant - as you would know if you bothered to study the physics.


Yes, that was a bit of a long shot. The idea I am expressing is that it doesn't
matter per se that the ratio of one thing to another is a big
ratio, like the one between CO2 and the rest of atmosphere, and so it is
tangential to say that "that's about 0.3cc of CO2 in every litre of atmosphere".
Fools could seize on that and say it is too tiny a figure to matter. Perhaps 'irrelevant'
was a bit strong.

The thing that matters is the physics, and many (most) who have studied the matter conclude
that the ratio is far out of whack from recent trends as a result of human output and
this is causing disasters.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 09:16 
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Don't worry botach it is ten degrees warmer this morning. And we all love a good argument.

There some among us who would rather believe the bad news because that gets more publicity.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 09:17 
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botach wrote:
So can someone please tell me why we are suffering from GLOBAL WARMING, AND if we are THANK GOD.( Otherwise it might be artic temperatures in the midlands)


There are trends of different time-scales in operation all the time. It is hard to sort out that which is natural from that which is due to industry. Over a long time, trends can be disentangled, and a picture emerges of the truth. It cannot be done over a season, but perhaps it can be done over 10, 20 or 100 seasons.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 09:20 
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Brookwood wrote:
Don't worry botach it is ten degrees warmer this morning. And we all love a good argument.

There some among us who would rather believe the bad news because that gets more publicity.


I would MUCH rather believe that all was well. But I don't in this case.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 09:23 
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Just exactly which disasters are you blaming on CO2?

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 09:26 
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basingwerk wrote:
I would MUCH rather believe that all was well. But I don't in this case.


Join Transport 2000 if you're so bothered....or friends of the earth..or green peace..I'm sure your valuable input will go a long way to saving the planet.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 09:28 
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Somebody is predicting the effect of CO2 by measuring the last few seconds of a 4.5 billion year history.

This is the third atmosphere this planet has had and CO2 levels have been much higher than now, in the past.

This planet is cooling and as it does so the CO2 levels in the atmosphere will drop.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 09:34 
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Just as an aside but still vaguely relevant to the argument did you know jet planes are good for the atmosphere? One of the gases produced by engine bombustion reacts with methane in the air which is as we all know ten times more effective as a so called 'greenhouse' gas. The same applies to your car. The bigger your engine the more methane you are removing from the atmosphere. Methane levels that were rising rapidly in the fifties have now leveled off.

Good news doesn't get reported does it.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 09:39 
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Pete317 wrote:
basingwerk wrote:
I can't imagine how you learned that the gulf stream shutdown would bring warmer weather. I think we face a climate similar to Newfoundland and Labrador, but without any hydro to keep us warm!


What evidence is there that the gulf stream is going to shut down, or even slow down, get smaller, whatever?
And what's going to cause such a cataclysmic event? Some whacky theory? I don't think so. Just about the only thing which would cause the gulf stream to stop is if the earth stopped rotating.
If you choose to believe every scare story that comes along, then why do you ignore those which tell us that there are more and more 'tropical' fish sightings in UK waters?

Better still, why not make an effort to learn about the physics associated with CO2 and infrared absorption? And, for good measure, study the laws of thermodynamics.


Sorry Pete I do agree with most of what you have said but the gulf stream is a much more delicate balance. It relies on salinity to work and it has shut down in the past with a very small change in that salinity. It is not life threatening and it would start up again but financially it would be disastrous for the UK for a while as we disappear under several tons of snow.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 09:44 
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basingwerk wrote:
Brookwood wrote:
Don't worry botach it is ten degrees warmer this morning. And we all love a good argument.

There some among us who would rather believe the bad news because that gets more publicity.


I would MUCH rather believe that all was well. But I don't in this case.


If you would MUCH rather believe, there is plenty of evidence in the scientific world that you have nothing to worry about as far as Global Warming is concerned. I remember reading that 18,000 scientist had signed a paper saying GW was not a concern.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 12:20 
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The propaganda machine has been quick to step in with the "Global warming = colder winters for the UK" thing:
http://news.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.j ... clim01.xml

And here is an article from 2004 (from the same paper!) telling us that global warming was the reason for the MILD winter we had that year:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh ... weth07.xml


How stupid do the Government & media think we are?

I quote Pete317:
Quote:
If it gets warmer, it's down to us.
If it gets colder, it's down to us.
If it gets wetter, it's down to us.
If it gets drier, it's down to us.
If it gets stormier, it's down to us.
If it gets calmer, it's down to us.
If things stay the same, they'll still say it's down to us - because things would have changed if not for us.

We really can't win.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 12:54 
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Brookwood wrote:
Just exactly which disasters are you blaming on CO2?


Read it again.

Quote:
The thing that matters is the physics, and many (most) who have studied the matter conclude that the ratio is far out of whack from recent trends as a result of human output and this is causing disasters.


Now where does it say that I have blamed disasters on CO2? That's right, Brookwood, it doesn't. If you want answers, you have to ask meaningful questions.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 12:57 
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Brookwood wrote:
it would be disastrous for the UK for a while as we disappear under several tons of snow.


If it is disastrous for the UK, that's a disaster, right?

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 13:32 
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Brookwood wrote:
I remember reading that 18,000 scientist had signed a paper saying GW was not a concern.


There is quite a good Source Watch article about how this paper originated and the dirty tricks used by the originator to make it look credible.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?ti ... d_Medicine

Extract:

Quote:
When questioned in 1998, OISM's Arthur Robinson admitted that only 2,100 signers of the Oregon Petition had identified themselves as physicists, geophysicists, climatologists, or meteorologists, "and of those the greatest number are physicists." This grouping of fields concealed the fact that only a few dozen, at most, of the signatories were drawn from the core disciplines of climate science - such as meteorology, oceanography, and glaciology - and almost none were climate specialists.


My bold.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 14:36 
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It really is a little bid sad how some people start getting all upset just because the weather isn't "what they expect" for a certain time of year. Take winter for example, what people expect is a steady & gradual fall in temperature starting in September, bottoming out in January, then a steady & gradual rise in temperatures thereafter.

In the real world, it doesn't work like that. It goes up and down, and always has. This is due to the complex interactions between the various weather systems that affect us.

Last week was cold because we were sitting in between an area of low pressure and an area of high pressure, which were working together to draw cold air from the North down the channel between them.

This is a perfectly normal occurrence in winter and shouldn't cause any concern!!

This week we're under an area of low pressure which will bring warmer, wetter conditions, but the air will still take some time to warm up after last week, so at the moment, it still feels cold.

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