If I may, I would like to come back to your original post, Safespeed.
SafeSpeed wrote:
(...)
The key argument in the new version would be the same, but the following concept would be added to help explain and justify the overall conclusion:
Drivers continually make subsonscious risk assessments all the time they are driving. Speed is adjusted in response to these risk assessments. When danger is present ahead we don't have to think consciously about slowing down in good time - we do it subconsciously, and the reason that we do is because a subconscious risk assessment process tells us that we need to.
If we feel nervous in a vehicle that's travelling too fast that's because the subconscious risk assessment is sending an alarm signal.
If we feel bored or frustrated in a vehicle that's travelling too slowly, that too is a signal from the subconscious risk assessment process.
When we're driving we're in a continuous process of assessing and balancing risk The risk is assessed subconsciously and we adjust speed to maintain a sensible balance.
In fact adjusting speed is a driver's primary risk management tool. If we want drivers to manage risk - and we do - then it is most important to allow them to adjust speed.
So this then is the primary reason that drivers speed. They are using speed to manage risk in low risk environments. The road is clear and speed 'naturally' increases to take appropriate advantage of the good conditions.
Comments welcome.
(edited to fix italic)
I agree with this reasoning. There is that theory on "risk homeostasis" that says just that.
But I think it should be clear these subsonscious risk assessments are not objective science, they are estimations one makes based on all info and circumstances gathered instantaneously.
I hope I make myself clear: it is the risk as it is perceived, not as it really is, one reacts upon. As a result one can make the wrong decision, choose the wrong speed. I believe all traffic incidents are caused by a mismatch between real and perceived risk.
I think the clue on how to improve road safety is to bring real (objective) risk and perceived (subjective) risk in line. So risk reduction itself is therefore not the primary goal, but the chance the risk factors remain unnoticed is.
(I skipped most of the ongoing discussion, so I apologize if this does not contribute to the discussion)