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PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 22:10 
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ndp wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
But driving at 30mph would put the risk through the roof in lots and lots and lots of urban circumstances. We don't have anything like enough crashes


Don't we?

And don't forget, an awful lot of crashes are thought to go unreported.

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anything like the crash severity to support the idea that this is actually happening.


We do have a pedestrian & cyclist fatality rate that is rather poor compared with many continental countries.


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So why isn't it?


I dispute the assertion that we don't have the number of accidents to support the idea.


While I'm sorting you out some evidence (because I like these 'disputes'), what do you make of these figures...

Proportion of vehicles 'speeding' at sample sites: ~60% on most road types.

Proportion of injury crashes with excessive speed as a contributory factor: 12% (includes inappropriate speed within the speed limit)

So is 'speeding' more than 5 times safer than not speeding?

(Interestingly, it is estimated that under 2% of drivers are drunk, yet 25% of crashes include drunk driving as a contributory factor.)

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 23:19 
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Last edited by johno1066 on Sun Feb 19, 2006 04:45, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 23:51 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
ndp wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
But driving at 30mph would put the risk through the roof in lots and lots and lots of urban circumstances. We don't have anything like enough crashes


Don't we?

And don't forget, an awful lot of crashes are thought to go unreported.

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anything like the crash severity to support the idea that this is actually happening.


We do have a pedestrian & cyclist fatality rate that is rather poor compared with many continental countries.


Quote:
So why isn't it?


I dispute the assertion that we don't have the number of accidents to support the idea.


While I'm sorting you out some evidence (because I like these 'disputes'), what do you make of these figures...

Proportion of vehicles 'speeding' at sample sites: ~60% on most road types.

Proportion of injury crashes with excessive speed as a contributory factor: 12% (includes inappropriate speed within the speed limit)


We've done that, accident reports are merely the opinion of the reporting officer, and (obviously) they won't stick their neck out if they don't have a good idea.

When you see the accident reports for single-vehicle-leaves-carriageway which state no contributory factors whatsoever, you'll get the gist.

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So is 'speeding' more than 5 times safer than not speeding?


How did you get to that?


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 23:56 
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Last edited by johno1066 on Sun Feb 19, 2006 04:38, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 23:58 
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johno1066 wrote:
Cop out,


Are you seriously suggesting that I, or anyone else, should make decisions before looking at all the facts available, and all the situation, from a position which none of us can at present? That we people should provide answers before they've looked at the question?

Isn't that the mistake that too many politicians make at the minute?

Are you making the same mistake?

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I suggest you haven't got the answers,any answers for that matter.


As Peter has posted (and you have ignored), I have written down some ideas (which obviously

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You're following a script, a script that is dictated by central Government and one that doesn't allow you to think for yourself.


Am I?

What is this script? Where can I find it? What does it say?

Do you deny speed is an issue in *all* accidents?

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You're more interesting in creating an argument with those who have done their homework, have gone through the figures


But missed vital flaws in the data, like the lack of data on non-injury and unreported accidents when it comes to making bold claims like "20 zones are more dangeruos than 30 zones".

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It's not so easy when you have to deviate from the script and think for yourself, is it?


What script?

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Answer the question I posed please, we've got all the time in the world for the answer, Paul's spent thousands of hours on this, a few minutes, hours, days, weeks, months, years from you could make all the difference.


I'm making a difference now, thanks. What are you doing?

Its very easy to make assertions like all of that, yet you provide nothing to back that up.


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 00:05 
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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 00:13 
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johno1066 wrote:
Quote:
As Peter has posted (and you have ignored), I have written down some ideas (which obviously



Not interested, answer he question



Given that that is at least a start, what incentive have I to answer your question

I will not hypothesise on the answer to a question asked when I am hypothetically in a particular position, when I am not in the position to assess the question, the issues it raises, the full picture of data that would be available and so on. The answers can come after the deliberation and consideration, and as this is all dependant on me being in a hypothetical situation, and cannot do that unless and until that hypothetical situation arises and I am in a position to answer the question.

BTW, the Paxman style doesn't suit you.


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 00:21 
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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 00:28 
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johno1066 wrote:
Quote:

Given that that is at least a start, what incentive have I to answer your question


errr. that you may be wrong and that Safespeed is more than likely right, answer the question!


Why's that an incentive to me?

And Paul hasn't answered the question either (and indeed, he's not able to for the same reason I can't, and I sure he sensible enough not to predetermine his answer before he can look at all the data that would become available to him).

Indeed, alot of what he suggests on the link he posted earlier is simply outside of the constraints.

And surely what proposals I have made (even though it is outside of constraints) are worthy of more than "not interested, given you are so demanding for an(y) answer?

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BTW, the Paxman style doesn't suit you.


Who's Paxman?[/quote][/quote]

You've never heard of Jeremy Paxman? Jesus!


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 00:33 
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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 00:36 
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Umm, shouldn't we all calm down a bit :?: :)

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 00:39 
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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 00:42 
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johno1066 wrote:
ndp wrote:
johno1066 wrote:
Quote:


Why's that an incentive to me?


through fear that people may assume you don't know what you're talking about, answer the question


Some people seem intent on assuming that I don't know what I'm talking about regardless :roll:

I being a traffic engineer doesn't mean I know how to do the Secretary of State's job any more than he knows how to do mine.

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And Paul hasn't answered the question either (and indeed, he's not able to for the same reason I can't, and I sure he sensible enough not to predetermine his answer before he can look at all the data that would become available to him).


errrrrrrr, Paul has answered more questions than Magnus Magnusson has asked,


Last time I watched Magnus Magnusson asked the questions.

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you just need to do the research, answer the question.


Ah you're confused.

I do do the research, for my job, which is at the local level.

And you know how the DfT gets its traffic engineering ideas from? Thats right, the local level.

You see, there is no one solution. Sure, there are the national level publicity campaigns, and guidlines to ensure (or attempt to ensure) consistancy - but what appears on the ground is locally led and site specific.

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And surely what proposals I have made (even though it is outside of constraints) are worthy of more than "not interested, given you are so demanding for an(y) answer?


I don't care what's written on another website, your proposals still do not answer MY questions, answer the question.



Maybe you could be helpful an explain how far they do answer your question?

Have you read them?

I don't think you're doing Paul any favours here.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 00:54 
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 01:09 
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johno1066 wrote:
Quote:
Some people seem intent on assuming that I don't know what I'm talking about regardless :roll:


On the contrary, that's why i'm waiting in anticipation of an answer.


Yet you've already declared your not interested in whats been given.


Quote:
Quote:
Last time I watched Magnus Magnusson asked the questions.



Yes, that's what I was on about. answer the question


You'd think you could at least get basic things like that right.

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Ah you're confused.


Nope, you appear to be, with the question. please answer it :cry:


I don't understand what part of my response you fail to understand.

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I do do the research, for my job, which is at the local level.

ahhh, so yer work for the council,


Wrong


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And you know how the DfT gets its traffic engineering ideas from? Thats right, the local level.


NOT!!!!!!


Where do you think they come from then?

Do you have any idea whatsoever of what you speak?

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, besides, you haven't as f yet answered the questions.


And I've explained why, and you ignored it.

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You see, there is no one solution. Sure, there are the national level publicity campaigns, and guidlines to ensure (or attempt to ensure) consistancy - but what appears on the ground is locally led and site specific.


I beg to differ sir, read Paul Smith's research, perfectley consistant to me.


But he doesn't claim there is any one solution!

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Maybe you could be helpful an explain how far they do answer your question?


To be honest, I haven't read them, I'm only interested within the question already posed.


But that forms a part of the answer to a point!

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As Peter has pointed out, that does fall within the remit of the question to a degree. Not that you've red it.


If you however mean, the answers that you given on the T2000 website, well, I happen to agree with you many many points there. That, however, does not answer MY question.


Peter was referring to the entry in my abortive blog, which you admit you have ignored.

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I don't think you're doing Paul any favours here.



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Since when have you been Paul's ally,


Do you think your ranting a support reflects well on Paul (not that he is responsible for any of it, of course)?

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or is it that you don't have an answer to my question?


I think I've made my position quite clear.

Maybe you can read what has been offered, and then maybe we can proceed from there. Or you can prattle on indefinately, choice is yours.


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 01:10 
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FFS guys, this pissing contest isn't getting either of you anywhere. :roll:

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 01:12 
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ndp wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
While I'm sorting you out some evidence (because I like these 'disputes'), what do you make of these figures...

Proportion of vehicles 'speeding' at sample sites: ~60% on most road types.

Proportion of injury crashes with excessive speed as a contributory factor: 12% (includes inappropriate speed within the speed limit)


We've done that, accident reports are merely the opinion of the reporting officer, and (obviously) they won't stick their neck out if they don't have a good idea.

When you see the accident reports for single-vehicle-leaves-carriageway which state no contributory factors whatsoever, you'll get the gist.


It's fashionable to deride the contributory factor data because it is inconvenient. It's true that the data and the way it is gathered leave a lot to be desired. But contributory factor data has similar and consistent messages irrespective of method and country. Exceeding the speed limit is ALWAYS a minor factor. Inattention is ALWAYS a major factor. Observation failure is ALWAYS a major factor.

ndp wrote:
Quote:
So is 'speeding' more than 5 times safer than not speeding?


How did you get to that?


60% speeding / (much less than) 12% 'speeding' as a contributory factor.

If 'speeding' was dangerous, shouldn't it be more prevalent in the crash stats than the non-crash stats? Drunks are...

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 01:12 
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MrsMiggins wrote:
FFS guys, this pissing contest isn't getting either of you anywhere. :roll:

Indeed, please either leave it or take it to PM.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 01:12 
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ndp wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
I've split to the most important bit...

ndp wrote:

Quote:
ndp wrote:
Quote:
There are very very few such places. If any. Can you offer any evidence at all that such a place exists?


Just about every urban road with a well set 30mph, for starters.


The accident records prove you wrong. Those millions of speeding drivers simply aren't crashing.



But that is missing the point.

As I'm sure you're aware, "an accident is a rare, random, multi-factor event always preceded by a situation in which one or more road users have failed to cope with their environment". If the other factors to conspire to create the accident aren't there, then the driver gets away with driving too fast for their environment.

Its a question of risk. The fact that most of the time people get away with it is neither here nor there - even playing Russian Roulette has a 83% "escape rate".


This is really the critical mistake in road safety policy. It's true that when you drive faster than a certain speed in a certain circumstance risk goes through the roof.

But driving at 30mph would put the risk through the roof in lots and lots and lots of urban circumstances. We don't have anything like enough crashes


Don't we?

And don't forget, an awful lot of crashes are thought to go unreported.


Usually minor shunts. Cars can be written off because of the crumple zones caving in after prang at 10 mph - per some inusrance company report in the papers a bit back.

Quote:
anything like the crash severity to support the idea that this is actually happening.


We do have a pedestrian & cyclist fatality rate that is rather poor compared with many continental countries.[/quote]

But then - they fine [edestrains who jay-walk! The 9 year old in Schaffhausen was charged with causing an accident through stepping off in front of traffic at a crossing. There - you have to wait from the green man to appear and it's not media hype - :roll: happened to me when I was aged 14 and visiitng those Swiss "rebels" :wink:



Also - they designed their roads to incorporate decent cycle lanes. More or less segregated. Cyclists rarely come into conflict with cars as a result - and Germany has some interesting stats in relation to areas flowing abundant with these lanes to its skimpier provisions.

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So why isn't it?


I dispute the assertion that we don't have the number of accidents to support the idea.


But on the other hand - if accidents were as common place as you appear to suggest - then all premiums should be sky high die to claims - and the insiurance companies say they are receiving less claims for easy fixes, more for written off crumple zones at low impact and this varies - but Vauxhall appear sturdiest per the this type of slight shunt - and the usual medium/serious appear to run steady -

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It can't be the speed limit doing it - it can only be appropriate speed behaviour.


Plays its part, but the limit is needed where the behaviour isn't there.


But my customers ... does not matter if there is a camera there or not - if they have stolen a car or youngsters concentrating more on chatting to pals than on COASTing it - they'lll still have an accident
.

Oh - and by the way hitting someone at 27 mph does not make them any less injured or dead - if you hit or they fall badly to be blunt.

It is the behaviour, the attitude, the COAST skills which bring about the change in reaction required to avoid any collision course - and novices are slower at spotting them. They are also the ones who do not "feel" the speed as keenly as they do with experience.

Thus the spinal cord of safety led driving has to move towards promoting the idea that sharp observarton and hazard perceception skills are "cooler" aspirations than pushing a car to its limit.
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It isn't true in any practical or useful sense that risk increases as you exceed 30mph. Risk really only increases with speed if you can't stop (comfortably) within the distance that you know will remain clear.


In an urban environment, thats quite often at speeds over 30.


Most drivers on here drive below 30 mph when appropriate.... :roll: But some of the 30 mph urban duals have no pelicans or zebras or any obvious hazard

However on the A14 - a 70 mph 3 laner linking the M1/M6 to the M11 and the East - I have driven past signs warning me to expect pedestrians to be crossing this motorway type road


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Drivers are amazingly effective at this, and you can bet that where the 85th percentile speed is above the speed limit the speed limit is unecessarilly low.


So do you think the 30 limit should be raised, on major roads at least?

And theres the damage limitation issue, of course.


I think the general conclusion on the board was that some roads should be 20 mph, some should remian at 30 mph and a handful of existing 30 mph raised to 40 mph and 50 mph and some of the 50 mph/ 40 mph and even a couple of single carriage NSLs downgraded to 30 mph....

Basically - the fault lies with speeds set inappropriately on a lot of roads and this is in fact an issue which Meredydd Hughes plans to address. :wink:

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 01:16 
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MrsMiggins wrote:
FFS guys, this pissing contest isn't getting either of you anywhere. :roll:


I couldn't even figure out what the question was... :hehe:

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