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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:57 
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4803460.stm

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US climate scientists have recorded a significant rise in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, pushing it to a new record level.

BBC News has learned the latest data shows CO2 levels now stand at 381 parts per million (ppm) - 100ppm above the pre-industrial average.

The research indicates that 2005 saw one of the largest increases on record - a rise of 2.6ppm.

The figures are seen as a benchmark for climate scientists around the globe.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) has been analysing samples of air taken from all over the world, including America's Rocky Mountains.

The chief carbon dioxide analyst for Noaa says the latest data confirms a worrying trend that recent years have, on average, recorded double the rate of increase from just 30 years ago.

"We don't see any sign of a decrease; in fact, we're seeing the opposite, the rate of increase is accelerating," Dr Pieter Tans told the BBC.

The precise level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is of global concern because climate scientists fear certain thresholds may be "tipping points" that trigger sudden changes.

The UK government's chief scientific adviser, Professor Sir David King, said the new data highlighted the importance of taking urgent action to limit carbon emissions.

"Today we're over 380 ppm," he said. "That's higher than we've been for over a million years, possibly 30 million years. Mankind is changing the climate."


I won't offer any opinion on the contents, as I know how strongly some people on this forum feel about the subject.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 14:20 
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CO2 levels now stand at 381 parts per million (ppm) - 100ppm above the pre-industrial average

Do they have figures for the past 4.5bn years then?


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 14:39 
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Einion Yrth wrote:
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CO2 levels now stand at 381 parts per million (ppm) - 100ppm above the pre-industrial average

Do they have figures for the past 4.5bn years then?


Whatever your beliefs there's no denying that burning fossil fuels whilst reducing vegetation is going to have an impact on a climate.

I don't think the climate is anything to be sarcastic about personally. I'm certainly no eco-warrior but I do have some sense of responsibility :wink:

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 14:53 
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Absolutely! me too!

I'm no tree-hugger either but I'm not proud of the fact that I'm more a part of the problem than the solution!

The sooner goverments grasp the nettle and focus resources on reasearching the alternatives (and there are a few worth looking at!) the better we will all be.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 17:40 
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It would be interesting to know what the global distribution is. One of the biggest single sources of Co2 is volcanic activity. Maybe somethings gonna blow!

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 17:46 
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Gizmo wrote:
It would be interesting to know what the global distribution is. One of the biggest single sources of Co2 is volcanic activity. Maybe somethings gonna blow!


if you follow these sorts of things, apparently Vesuvius is ready to go again. Maybe not a good time to visit the bay of Naples?

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 19:10 
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"Today we're over 380 ppm," he said. "That's higher than we've been for over a million years, possibly 30 million years. Mankind is changing the climate."

so it's been like this before due to entirely natural causes, but the current cause MUST be mankind...

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The sooner goverments grasp the nettle and focus resources on reasearching the alternatives (and there are a few worth looking at!) the better we will all be.

the simple solution is to reduce the human population but everyone seems to be too busy promoting even more overpopulation to think about the obvious.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 19:14 
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Good programme on Beeb 2 tonight at 8pm. It is about some guy looking into climate change and whether what is going on now is unusual or just another warming cycle.

He hasn't mentioned the urban heat island effect within observed temperature increases and hasn't mentioned anything about the ice caps on mars melting rapidly either.

Some other paper I read suggested that a doubling of CO2 leads to a 0.6 degree of warming and a quadrupling would lead to 1 degree of warming. This is nothing like the hysterical predictions being bandied around.

He's also looking into methane and why at the end of the last ice age temperatures rose 10C in a very short time ie much more than the warming we have observed now.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 19:50 
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teabelly wrote:
This is nothing like the hysterical predictions being bandied around.


Next thing they will be telling us this is the mildest winter on record..... :lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 20:13 
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Gizmo wrote:
Next thing they will be telling us this is the mildest winter on record..... :lol:


Not a peep! But just wait until the next few hotter-than-normal summer days we get - then they'll be shouting from the rooftops again.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 20:21 
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teabelly wrote:
.. and whether what is going on now is unusual or just another warming cycle.


What exactly would that be? I'm not getting at you, btw, just curious - I didn't see the programme.
According to satellite measurements, the annual 'best-fit' rate of global temperature increase is 0.007 degrees, so I'm just wondering what warming cycle he's talking about.

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Some other paper I read suggested that a doubling of CO2 leads to a 0.6 degree of warming and a quadrupling would lead to 1 degree of warming.


And that's about it. Piling on more and more CO2 is not going to have any more effect, simply because nearly all the IR radiation of the wavelength which is absorbed by CO2 is already being absorbed.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 20:46 
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The warming shown on the global average temperature chart which is 0.6 degrees +- 0.2 of warming. It does end with the hockey stick temperature ramp which might be slightly dubious and they don't mention on whether these stats are independent of urban heat island. The programme is on at 8pm on beeb 2. I watched it when it was on bbc 4.

The envirospin bloke also points to a good paper about CO2 in today's blog.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 14:43 
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"Today we're over 380 ppm," he said. "That's higher than we've been for over a million years, possibly 30 million years. Mankind is changing the climate."

so it's been like this before due to entirely natural causes, but the current cause MUST be mankind...


Why MUST it?

the planet has been through innumerable climate changes before humans arrived, so why must this one be ALL our fault. truth is we simply don't KNOW, however much we speculate.

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the simple solution is to reduce the human population but everyone seems to be too busy promoting even more overpopulation to think about the obvious.


Not quite. Certain sections of the population (myself included :lol: ) are somewhat less inclined to be adding to the population, civil partnership or not! :roll:


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 14:54 
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stackmonkey wrote:
Why MUST it?

please turn off your sarcasm blocker and read again.


stackmonkey wrote:
Not quite. Certain sections of the population (myself included Laughing ) are somewhat less inclined to be adding to the population, civil partnership or not!

there's always one! I'm not about to start a family either but governments the world over seem to throw money at people who want to do so.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 16:09 
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No sarcasm or offence intended.

My intention was to point out that while we have the technology to show that the climate is changing, we do not (as a species) have sufficient knowledge to determine how much of that change is man-made or natural, nor do we know for sure how long it will continue to change for, and how rapidly it will change (compared to current changes). Nor, come to that, do we know HOW it will globally change, despite (relatively) short term temp. increases.
we have some information, we can speculate and theorise, but we do not KNOW. that is why i questioned your assertion that it MUST be due to mankind. some of it probably is, but we don't know how much.

On the other hand i quite agree that we globally, nationally and personally waste far too much of the planet's resources anyway.
Fast cars aside, i really should recycle more than i do.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 16:17 
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I'd give up Johnsher!


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 16:58 
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Teabelly wrote:
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The warming shown on the global average temperature chart which is 0.6 degrees +- 0.2 of warming. It does end with the hockey stick temperature ramp which might be slightly dubious and they don't mention on whether these stats are independent of urban heat island. The programme is on at 8pm on beeb 2. I watched it when it was on bbc 4.


The graph was very interesting but they did not explain the potential problems of the hockey stick. The data up until about 150 years ago was all proxy data recovered from ice cores and tree rings, which i'm sure has been proven only to be a rough estimate of climatic conditions from the period (when it suits). The data up until about 20 years ago was based on rough observations with archaic technology, and the hockey stick was based on measurements made with new and much more precise and widely based technologies, thus any warming trend will of course look much more prominent.

Taking into account that the earth was warming from the little ice age in that period, then we would expect to see a warming trend, which wasn't that apparent from the proxy data but it seems to be from personal recollections and records.

The effects of solar activity seemed to be doged with only simple explanations that it was a marginal effect. You could almost feel the big 'BUT' rising from the ashes near the end of the programme.

I thought it was going to be level headed debate with proper scientific review but the appearance of Monbiot and the big 'well funded' research organisations, who rely on the scare tactics for funding, soon made the viewer realise that it was the going to be the same old claptrap espoused again.

I won't say that carbon emissions have no effect, of course they do but I can't imagine that it will, in any way, be a severely negative 'doomsday' type effect.

I shall repent however if I find myself floating down the high street on an iceberg :D

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 17:07 
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Stackmonkey wrote:

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On the other hand i quite agree that we globally, nationally and personally waste far too much of the planet's resources anyway.
Fast cars aside, i really should recycle more than i do.


Interesting thought about recycling, consider the following:

How much extra energy are we using to:

Make packaging recyclable;

Transport it to recycling depots;

Recycle the rubbish;

Extra bins and new lorries to collect the rubbish;

And look at all the people now driving to the dump with garden waste, bottles, metal, plastics etc. sometimes the queues stretch out onto the main roads causing congestion + all the extra cars on the road;

I'm not saying recycling isn't a good thing but there is always a trade off when something like this appears to be a very good option. Is it really worth it? Couldn't it be done much more efficiently?

I think food and beverage manufacturers need to take more responsibility as well as the packaging on some foods now is serious overkill.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 17:11 
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fergl100 wrote:
I'd give up Johnsher!

Right now I'm wondering if stackmonkey is American. :lol:


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 18:22 
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The climate change bridge are really no REALLY upping the anti at the moment...are we currently at 380ppm CO2 and i think the other week the 'point of no return' or whatever was stated as 500ppm

what are we going to do when we reach that and the oceans haven't boiled?

I notice with interest that some government advisory body has decided against nuclear as a long term solution to our energy needs and CO2 reduction. Imagine my suprise when the chair of this illustrious team was unveiled as none other than Jonathan Porritt!!!

Where is the little boy when we need him....you know the same boy who shouted...'but the emperor isn't wearing any clothes'.


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