An extract from FAQ on the specs website -bit old but one quote puts the 1/3 idea out by a lot
http://www.speedcheck.co.uk/FAQs05.htm
Hole digging for beginners,methinks
A TRL report has stated that only 7% of crashes are due to excessive speed, whereas Government publicity says speed is a contributory factor in about a third of all crashes. Why is the Government so obsessed with speeding when it is bad driving that is the real problem?
The TRL report 323 'A New System for Recording Contributory Factors in Road Accidents' is about contributory factors in accidents in the context of a new accident data recording system being brought into STATS 19. Speed as a contributory factor is shown in the report to occur in about 7% of accidents, whilst the Government normally quote about one third. This apparent disparity can be explained. Excessive speed as a causation factor may be coded for any one of the following reasons:
• Excess speed for the limit
• Excess speed for the vehicle (e.g. LGV)
• Excess speed for the conditions
Although speed was not always shown as a factor in the trial schemes, which is what the report is about, speed is clearly a factor when the causes are shown as any of the following:
• Sudden braking
• Careless/reckless driving
• Following too close
• Behaviour - in a hurry
• Loss of control of a vehicle
• Poor overtaking, etc.
TRL has issued a statement in TRL News (September 2002) explaining that its report No. 323 has been misunderstood. A more relevant report that explains the speed - accident relationship is the Effects of Drivers' Speed on the Frequency of Road Accidents TRL Report No. 421.