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PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 11:42 
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The Observer

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Rail revolution to clear Britain's road gridlock 'in next 30

Double-decker trains are just one part of an official plan to tackle our transport crisis and persuade people to abandon their cars

Gaby Hinsliff, Nick Mathiason, Juliette Jowit and Martha Alexander
Sunday November 26, 2006
The Observer

A railway revolution to ease the pressure on packed commuter routes and shorten journeys between major cities is being drawn up within government following a major Treasury review.
The report, by former chief executive of British Airways Sir Rod Eddington, to be published next month, will warn that Britain's creaking transport system is near saturation point. It will call for a major expansion of rail capacity over the next 30 years to help take the strain off congested roads.

Ministers want to boost the number of trains that can run on the existing network by improved signalling and specialised trains designed to travel more closely together. Double-deck trains could also be introduced on busy routes, with tracks beneath tunnels lowered to fit them, while longer trains are planned on commuter routes.
Britons make just over a billion rail journeys a year, a figure predicted to rise to 1.3 billion by 2025: traffic on English roads is expected to rise by at least 29 per cent by 2015.

The review comes as an analysis by London Mayor Ken Livingstone predicts an extra four million passenger journeys a day through the capital by 2025 as jobs are created and the population swells, threatening permanent gridlock between Heathrow and the City unless more people can be persuaded to use public transport.

The Eddington review, expected to be published on the eve of Gordon Brown's pre-budget report, will back a limited number of new road improvements to tackle serious localised bottlenecks. But it will reject a major roadbuilding programme, arguing that new roads would simply become quickly clogged with cars too. Eddington backs road pricing, under which drivers pay a toll per mile for using the busiest routes at certain times, to reduce congestion instead.

'We are not in the market of huge engineering projects that cost billions,' said one source familiar with the report. 'It is about the things that make a difference to people like you and me daily.'

However, Chris Grayling, the Tories' transport spokesman, predicted that the report would be a 'complete failure' to meet its original brief because it was not ambitious enough: 'Longer platforms are the kind of solution that would be needed within the next ten years to deal with the huge problems of over-crowding. After that, it should be about the kind of transformational projects that may be needed in the future.'

Eddington will argue that economic growth is generating more traffic as people become richer and want to travel more, but future economic growth will be restricted if businesses cannot move people and goods around. He is said to have abandoned early support for the introduction of Maglev (magnetic levitation) trains, which can travel at up to 300mph, after Treasury objections about the cost. However in a sign that there have been tensions behind the scenes over the report's conclusions, ministers will take several months to consider their response rather than immediately accepting his conclusions.

They will publish detailed specifications next summer for a new generation of inter-city trains to replace the familiar but ageing 125s, which could be designed for greater capacity and be powered by greener energy sources.

But John Redwood, who chairs a commission on economic competitiveness set up by David Cameron, said it was wrong to argue that building new roads was pointless because they would become congested: 'The government doesn't say "Put in a few more hospital beds and people will only use them, so they will all get blocked again". They just offer more beds. The same must be true of rail and road capacity.'

Forcing drivers on to rail would not work unless capacity increased, he said, with mainline networks now able to cope with only about 20 trains an hour at peak times. Running them more closely together has previously been impossible because of the danger of fast trains crashing into each other, but Redwood's commission is studying the Paris Metro, where trains are fitted with special wheels enabling them to brake and accelerate quickly and thus travel more closely together.

Redwood's commission is expected to recommend spending tens of billions of pounds more in investment for transport, but say that the money should come from the private sector, not the public purse.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 12:28 
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It is strange that they do not see that we don't need to be in the same building to meet up at all.

broadband is more likly to reduce the congestion than a few trains.
hows about job swaps with a local firm....
maybe government should be employing the builder from three streets away rather than big nation wide contracts
and moving government departments out of London where they will get a better quality person for £25k a year

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 13:05 
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traffic on English roads is expected to rise by at least 29 per cent by 2015.


Absolute rubbish. Traffic has been growing at +8.75bvkm since 1950, and a continuation of that trend would mean an increase of ~15% by 2015.

There are some signs that traffic growth may be slowing in the last few years.

Here's the chart:

Image

The green trace represents LINEAR traffic growth at +8.75bvkm pa.
The red trace is official 'total traffic' data.

From http://www.safespeed.org.uk/smeed.html

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 13:18 
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My instinct tells me that traffic growth must slow down. We are richer than ever, 2 car households are the norm etc etc. Are we approaching car ownership saturation with future growth likely to come through population expansion rather than increasing ownership per capita?

I would imagine we'll see a change in the traffic mix though. For instance seriously long commutes appear to be getting more prevalent (e.g my 2 1/2 trek) but they don't cause congestion only when I enter the built up areas and how far I travel has little bearing on that.

No doubt this is too simplistic a view.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 14:24 
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civil engineer wrote:
My instinct tells me that traffic growth must slow down. We are richer than ever, 2 car households are the norm etc etc. Are we approaching car ownership saturation with future growth likely to come through population expansion rather than increasing ownership per capita?

I would imagine we'll see a change in the traffic mix though. For instance seriously long commutes appear to be getting more prevalent (e.g my 2 1/2 trek) but they don't cause congestion only when I enter the built up areas and how far I travel has little bearing on that.

No doubt this is too simplistic a view.


Car ownership may be on the up, but some of this could be that in a 2 car household one vehicle is chosen for "local" journeys and another for laonger journeys, as people get more affluent they may add in a "fun" car as well, so simply counting the number of cars is pointless, as a single driver can only be in one of their vehicles


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 15:57 
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Yes, of course you are right. It's the available maximum number of drivers that gives the maximum congestion figure not the number of cars.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 16:53 
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Given that traffic levels are rising slowly and seem set to rise slowly, I don't follow the argument that more road building is pointless. There's a trade-off between the cost of transport (pollution, cost, space taken up) and the benefits (mobility, convenience). Providing more capacity doesn't mean that people will travel more just for the sake of it, if they travel more it's because they benefit by doing so. To stick a stake in the ground and say that we don't want or need more transport capacity than we currently have, is illogical.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 17:14 
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anton wrote:
It is strange that they do not see that we don't need to be in the same building to meet up at all.

broadband is more likly to reduce the congestion than a few trains.


Ok, why do MPs need to attend Westminster at all then? Let the "leaders" lead by teleworking. Far chance. They would have to give up all those fancy London eateries and opportunities for affairs. :)

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 20:26 
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Apart from a couple of exceptional areas, I find a lot of the time I'm stuck in traffic is because of road works - more often than not road works where there's no actual works going on.

Take the M6 junction 5 as an example, or the A45 round Coventry, or the A444 through Coventry - all a nightmare for the last 6 months with very little sign of work going on.

Now if they spent a bit of time insisting that contracts for road works on motorways & A roads contained:

- "time is of the essence" (and NOT "quote in years and we'll give you a bonus for finishing early")
- 24 hr working
- maximum "men per mile"
- spot fines where unattended works are found

I think we'd see a huge improvement.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 21:34 
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Surely growth in traffic must cease when every able-bodied person has a driving licence and goes out to drive. We must be almost at that point already. So who is going to be driving all those extra vehicles, robots ?

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 23:51 
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Increasing the passenger capacity of existing rail links is all well and good, but this won't solve the problem of orbital journeys around London not being served by Public Transport.

Save for a few slow local links here and there, the South East's rail network is almost entirely "radial" - a hub-spoke design with London at the Centre. Someone wanting to get from (say) Reading to Milton Keynes by rail currently has to go into London and back out again - a 2 1/2 hour journey. Understandably, this person will opt for a 1 hour commute by car instead.

The South East's rail network needs the equivalent of the M25 - a fast link that will serve orbital routes and take the pressure off the London "hub".

If such a link were to be built, I think even the Government would be surprised at the impact it would have on congestion - both on the rail and road networks - in and around London.

I'm surprised it hasn't ever been proposed.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 00:01 
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One problem with rail transport - one set of passenger commutes long distance . Other set commutes to next town. We need two sepearate sets of train systems--so we need two sets of tracks.. Next - have we got an integrated transport system - do busses arrive/depart from train stations regularly , even if going to a central bus station - as far as i can see from stations in the Midlands - NO
So what incentive have people got to travel by train - i could get to my local train station, get a train to my work station , then have a quarter of mile walk ---not nice in rain etc.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 00:09 
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botach wrote:
One problem with rail transport - one set of passenger commutes long distance . Other set commutes to next town. We need two sepearate sets of train systems--so we need two sets of tracks.. Next - have we got an integrated transport system - do busses arrive/depart from train stations regularly , even if going to a central bus station - as far as i can see from stations in the Midlands - NO
So what incentive have people got to travel by train - i could get to my local train station, get a train to my work station , then have a quarter of mile walk ---not nice in rain etc.


What is wrong with accepting that people are going to use their cars for the "last mile", or indeed incentivising them to do so by providing plenty of cheap parking for rail commuters? What is better for congestion/the environment - lots of people travelling 3 miles by car every day, or 30 miles?

Buses are an essential service for those who do not / can not drive, but the idea of a door-to-door integrated public transport system has always seemed a bit unrealistic to me.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 00:17 
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Buses are an essential service for those who do not / can not drive, but a door-to-door integrated public transport system has always seemed a bit unrealistic to me.


Not door to door --- but terminal to terminal - you walk to the bus - walk from the bus station etc to the train , and at the other end , would expect to find a bus to take you into town etc.
Most rail stations are remote from towns/town centres - thats why it's essential to provide a bus service to town, how else can people be encouraged to give up the car??


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 01:11 
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Agreed, the car can only help at the home end of your journey anyway. At the "work" end you are still reliant on local public transport to get you to your destination if it is more than (say) half a mile away. The Tube serves Central London fairly well in this respect, but other towns & cities are not so fortunate. Many of the commercial estates that have sprung up out of town (usually next to motorways) are very poorly served by PT.

Maybe something like http://www.safespeed.org.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10916 is the answer.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 11:34 
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I think I cross posted my response to this thread and the one Antera309 referred to above ... on Page 2 I posted:

Handy wrote:
It bugs me how things are trotted out as "the solution". Trains are a great solution to certain problems (like last week I needed to be in London for 3 days but could only be away from home for one night ... train there and back on Tuesday, train back Wedensday morning, home on Thursday night). Bicycles are the solution for other types of journey, but not all. Bikes on Trains, again, suitable for another type of journey. Buses, cars, taxis, walking, the Underground, trams, DLR (LRT), small panes, big planes, river taxis. They are all good for something, but unless they are seen as part of a bigger whole, they are doomed to failure and possibly even ridicule.

In my very humble opinion.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 12:31 
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botach wrote:
Quote:
Buses are an essential service for those who do not / can not drive, but a door-to-door integrated public transport system has always seemed a bit unrealistic to me.


Not door to door --- but terminal to terminal - you walk to the bus - walk from the bus station etc to the train , and at the other end , would expect to find a bus to take you into town etc.
Most rail stations are remote from towns/town centres - thats why it's essential to provide a bus service to town, how else can people be encouraged to give up the car??


It's actually quite easy to get from my place of residence to town where I work, but there are a few reasons why I do not.....

There used to be a railway right past my house into town but it was torn up in the 70s...... Ok so buses??

Yep we have those. We even have a park and ride - although it's generally the same buses which do the Park & Ride and the normal bus service - it just that some runs of the service (same bus number) go different routes - so you need to be well practised to know if any particular bus is going to drop you at the P&R when you didn't P&R, or near home with your car 2 miles away at the P&R :roll:

Upon arriving in town, the bus station is very central right next to the railway station. You can jump straight on a train without getting wet and head 3 miles out to the industrial estate where most people work, and wave at it from a distance of 600 yards as the train carries on to the next stop 6 miles away in the next town :roll:

Similarly, the railway runs within about 300 yards of Aberdeen Airport - on the opposite side to the terminal and industrial estate.

There are no maps on bus stops like the London tube, although they have thought to colour in the buses in the city to show which "line" they run. Sadly though, unless you know the names of each street corner through all the minky chavtastic council estates, and owing to there being no schematic maps to show exactly where the Red Line actually goes - it's a bit of a lottery climbing on a bus.


The long and the short of it is that if I didn't have a car I'd have to leave the house 45 mins earlier, arrive at work half an hour later, having spent £2.70 more on buses than the car cost, plus a mile walk up a steep (usually wet and windy hill) to the industrial estate to work, then even more hassle getting home.

Public transport would net me £13.50 per week worse off, and I'd get 2 hours per day less at home with the family.

If the train still went past my house I'd probably use it, or indeed if the train stopped near my work rather than sailing straight past it I'd probably use that too.

Hell I'd even mix it up and use the bus into town (if they'd decide which buses went where, gave them separate numbers, regular times (Between 5pm and 6pm, there's one bus heading my way at 17:10, then nothing until 17:45 when 3 turn up together going basically the same way, but one drives straight past the P&R, one does the P&R, and one takes in an extra village or two along the way :roll: )) then the train to work if they'd build a station on the way past Aberdeen's largest industrial estate.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 17:26 
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Think you've said it all JD - as far as i can see there's no joined up thinking in the planning/organisation/ implementation of public transport.
Like you - if i used public transport - i'd have to leave the house about 1 hour earlier, hang around stations, end up with a choice on a wet day of being really late for work or getting soaked - and still pay more for the privilidge of doing so .


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 00:20 
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Orbital commutes are the real problem in local congestion, and it's a function of how towns and cities have grown.

Lets assume you are lucky enough to have a job in the same town you work in, lets also ignore London as it is completely different to the rest of the country.

Towns have been expanding, new industrial and business parks keep being thrown up on the outskirts. Generally they employ skilled and professional staff who tend to live in the suburbs. OR they employ low skilled labourers who tend to live in the cheaper areas closer to the middle of the town or city.

The suburbs have also been thrown up randomly in the outskirts, usually away from the business and industrial parks.

The net result of this is that the majority of commutes by the professional and skilled staff are from one bit of city outskirt to another, possibly a few layers further in, especially if the employee is younger and therefore has higher living costs and a lower wage.

The majority of bus services however are hub and spoke based on major routes and going into the town centre. So whilst your commute may only be 5-10 miles around a ring road, your bus journey is going to be 15 miles into town then 20 miles out at a slightly different angle. No thanks I will take the queue of traffic and still get a lie in.

Of course there are two major areas of employment that do not have this problem. One is high street retail and the other is the civil service (which is almost invariably based in the town centre). It is the latter that decides our bus routes and thus they will never realise the problem as half of them wouldn't last 5 minutes in a proper job.

The other reason, at least in my town, is that being civil servants they have no understanding of the concept of overtime. There is a fairly handy bus service to my GFs place of work (an industrial park). It gets you there at 8:55. There is another one that picks you up at 17:05. That's it. No other busses all day. Pity she officially finishes at 5:30 and usually later because something broke and wasn't fixed by 5:30.

This is also why road user charging is doomed to fail. People will suck it up until they cannot afford to work any more, then will either demand higher wages pushing inflation up, or just go on the dole. I must say that the dole is tempting right now as I will make more money.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 12:42 
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Location: Treacletown ( just north of M6 J3),A MILE OR TWO PAST BEDROCK
Looks like it'll be get a job close to home /go on the dole or work from home soon.
Times article "Ticket price rises make rail travel 'preserve of the rich'"
[url=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2477269,00.html
]ticket to ride [/url]


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