Safe Speed Forums

[urlhttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,176-1399995,00.html]

Article says

"In a research paper published in Mathematics Today, Rose Baker, professor of statistics at Salford University"....

" warned there are now enough speed cameras to ensure the average driver can expect to face three driving bans in their motoring career"

Only "9% will get through their motoring lives without a ban at all."

“the average driver will face a driving ban every 15 years”.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/ ... 95,00.html
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But that's because 91% of drivers are raving lunatics who drive 5mph over the speed limit.

Licence bans aren't good enough for the likes of us we should all be locked up for such antisocial behaviour.

Welcome TC001, nice find.

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Ross

Yes I'm a hoon, but only on the track!!!!

Thanks for the welcome M3RBMW

Here's one link to the originator of the research

http://www.ima.org.uk/institute/thetrou ... ameras.htm

Paul - she may have a more thorough set of work to use?

She refers to some other work.

What fun!

I've emailed the author asking for the full paper. She can be found here:

http://www.aems.salford.ac.uk/staff

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Paul Smith
Our scrap speed cameras petition got over 28,000 sigs
The Safe Speed campaign demands a return to intelligent road safety

From what little I've seen (just this evening - since the above references) - I am impressed with the quality of her work, Paul - could be a very good ally.

Edit: She has an impressive bibliography.. http://www.aems.salford.ac.uk/publicati ... php#rbaker

This seems to be very dodgy statistics. If we have 30 million licensed drivers, and 3 million convictions a year, then the average driver will only get 3 points every 10 years, and probably never get a ban.

I can't do the maths, but for the average driver to suffer a ban from time to time it would probably require over 15 million convictions a year - at which time there would be riots in the streets.

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"Show me someone who says that they have never exceeded a speed limit, and I'll show you a liar, or a menace." (Austin Williams - Director, Transport Research Group)

Any views expressed in this post are personal opinions and may not represent the views of Safe Speed

I think it's based on six point speeding tickets afer the "graduated penalties review" / road safety bill. But I do agree it does sound a little extreme.

The Times article includes: "According to her formula, the average driver can expect to clock up a speeding offence every two years." As you point out, that's simply not possible unless speeding convictions run annually at half the number of drivers. Perhaps it's misreported?

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Paul Smith
Our scrap speed cameras petition got over 28,000 sigs
The Safe Speed campaign demands a return to intelligent road safety

My back-of-the-envelope doodles suggests that, provided the distribution is skewed from the norm (and it will be as for each 3,000 miles per year driver there is a 30,000 mile-per-year driver etc) then the conclusion is sound.

It has become a war of attrition. Every one who has points on the license is a registered voter.

It’s up to you. In the next couple of months when the political parties come knocking on your door ask them is they support the current strategy on speed camera enforcement. Is so tell the to p*ss off and slam the door in their face....

Maybe they will start to get he message..

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Speed camera policy Kills

And there are population areas that pass no cameras (yet).

So the probabilty for drivers in camera areas is much higher.

I have never had a political canvasser knock on my door in the 15 years I have lived in my house, despite living in a marginal ward.

If they had, I would have said "I would vote for Attila the Hun* if he said he would get rid of all the f*****g speed humps."

*I don't actually support the general policies of Attila the Hun, but I suspect the scope for genocide is limited in Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council, so if he did get rid of the humps everyone would be happy.

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"Show me someone who says that they have never exceeded a speed limit, and I'll show you a liar, or a menace." (Austin Williams - Director, Transport Research Group)

Any views expressed in this post are personal opinions and may not represent the views of Safe Speed

That's the spirit...

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Speed camera policy Kills

But if the average driver does the average mileage and gets the average number of tickets, we've still got a very big problem getting to the phrase: "According to her formula, the average driver can expect to clock up a speeding offence every two years."

Surely the average driver must be average in every parameter? Or am I missing something?

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Paul Smith
Our scrap speed cameras petition got over 28,000 sigs
The Safe Speed campaign demands a return to intelligent road safety

I would expect that anyone who har racked up 9 points will have their car equiped with full detection equipment...radar, laser, GPS

I know I would.

At present I have zero points but it has been close. at 50K mile per year its only a matter of time. After the first 3 points I will be on e-bay looking for a snooper.

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Speed camera policy Kills

Didn't it say 25% would get banned? If the distribution is gaussian it doesn't need a particularly wide spread to get there.

Of course, what is not accounted for is what Gizmo has just added - the negative feedback element of the 6 and 9-pointers installing ECM.

I now have the article, and it certainly looks like good careful work. In complete contrast to the reporting of it actually.

A correct interpretation of the work would have been to say: "Many average drivers will clock up a speeding offence every two years."

The copyright of the article has (apparently) been transferred to Mathematics Today: http://www.ima.org.uk/institute/mathstoday.htm , I have to contact them for the right to republish.

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Paul Smith
Our scrap speed cameras petition got over 28,000 sigs
The Safe Speed campaign demands a return to intelligent road safety