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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:34 
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Traffic humps and chicanes are used instead but are unpopular, expensive, cause problems for emergency vehicles and add to emissions.


Do they think that SPECS everywhere AREN'T unpopular, expensive, don't cause problems (in general, not just for emergency vehicles - who will constantly be setting them off triggering a tonne more paperwork for someone) and won't add to emissions as many drive around in 2nd gear. Morons

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They will need to decide whether the proposed type of speed limit is appropriate to the area, and beneficial in road safety and environmental terms.


Environmental issues should never have any influence on the setting of speed limits ffs!! It's meant to be about road safety, not the bloody hippie brigade

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20 mph speed limits by signs alone would be most appropriate where 85th percentile speeds are already low and further traffic calming measures are not needed


This one really got me on a thread on PH too. If the speeds being travelled are already low by a majority, there is no need to waste time and money changing over some flipping signs. When will they figure out that

If 85% drive at or under the 30mph limits in place, then there is nothing wrong with existing limit!!!


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 15:55 
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I can't believe I heard this quoted in the news, but it went something like this:

Studies in Europe show that a reduction in speed to 20mph reduces accidents by 20%. Also traffic flow is reduced by 27%.

That is almost word for word from the book 'How to lie with statistics'. How to make an increase sound like a decrease.

My very calculation of this leads me to believe that these statistics represent a 35%(ish) increase in crashes! And this is a good thing why?


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 19:23 
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WolvesPeakDriver wrote:
nedsram wrote:
We've recently returned from a holiday in southern France. We didn't encounter a single speed camera, so we could concentrate on the road ahead without one eye on the speedo and the other scanning for cameras or talivans, and for the first time in ages, driving was actually a pleasure rather than a stressful experience.


In France it is my experience that it is rare to be forced to drive through a built up area, there is almost always a bypass/bridge. In this country we are forced to drive/choke on the A6 through Stockport due to some 20 year old mantra that more roads = more cars.
There are some straw for brains about.

The words ROCADE or PERIPHIQUE spring to mind!! Towns that dont have them are laid out so there is a road which serves a similar purpose.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 13:39 
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There's more:

El Reg wrote:
No-humping 20mph limit for London

Immediately following this week's demands by safety lobbyists fearing for their jobs that the UK adopt a default 20mph speed limit in urban areas, London Mayor Ken Livingstone popped up aboard the bandwagon (this happened so quickly, indeed, that one might suspect he was aboard in advance).

Mayor Ken - the cheeky chappie's cheeky chappie - announced yesterday that the capital will soon have ANPR* camera-enforced 20mph limits on "every residential street".

Trials are to begin next year, apparently using wireless cameras for ease and economy of installation. Ken's people say the plan is to minimise pain and grief for drivers by eschewing the use of road humps, chicanes etc, which are "cheap and miserable", according to the Mayor.

If technology trials are successful, Mr Livingstone says: "You could roll out camera enforcement of 20mph lanes right the way across London... My broad view is that in a residential area, there should be a 20mph limit... without the road humps there won't be any opposition."

Mayoral road-safety henchperson Jenny Jones told the Evening Standard that "making 20mph the normal speed limit in London would save lives, save money, and give a major boost to cycling[**]. There would be exemptions for some major roads, but all London's residential areas would be covered by the zone.

"The big advantage of having a London wide reduction in the speed limit is that we could reduce speeds without having to put in all the road humps, chicanes, and other traffic calming measures that drivers hate."

It seems that Transport for London (TfL) has £10m to spend on speed limit zones this year; though of course some soreheads may speculate that this will soon be recovered by automated tribute exacted from speeding motorists as they gaily bowl along the hump-free, camera-studded streets of old London town.

There will also be grumbles about surveillance and vehicle tracking. However, Londoners already live and drive within an ANPR panopticon. TfL's congestion-charge cameras are already used by terror plodsto track any vehicle they like and the so-called "Ring of Steel" security cams installed around the City in the wake of various IRA bombings can do it too. This latest extension of plod/spook watching capability will probably pass largely unchallenged.

There's hope for the rebellious tech-head, however, in the news that the cams will be wireless. If they don't have any onboard logging/buffering, one will be able to carry a jammer in one's vehicle and speed with impunity (or, more justifiably perhaps, drive about safely without being tracked).

If the machinery can cope with temporary interference, different measures may be required; but there will be ways to beat the camera, despite the Daily Mail's gloomy prognostications. ®

*Automatic Numberplate Recognition

**Somehow. Your correspondent commutes by cycle, but still can't understand why a 20mph limit for drivers does cyclists a favour.

I shamelessly put in links to Safespeed within the comments section of both El Reg articles.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 23:22 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
"The figures destroy the general argument that driving slower means smaller
crashes. Obviously the national picture is telling us something completely
different. In 20mph zones we're having worse crashes than in 30mph zones."


If this is a real affect rather than a statistical anomoly, or misrepresetation of the figures, couldn't it be explained by more people in 20mph zones surviving being struck by a car, where in 30mph zones they are more likey to appear in the death statistics?

In short, increased injury rate in a zone that has a 20mph speed limit is a good thing becuase it means more people are surviving strikes and less people are being killed (as demonstrated by the figures).


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 23:59 
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weepej wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
"The figures destroy the general argument that driving slower means smaller
crashes. Obviously the national picture is telling us something completely
different. In 20mph zones we're having worse crashes than in 30mph zones."


If this is a real affect rather than a statistical anomoly, or misrepresetation of the figures, couldn't it be explained by more people in 20mph zones surviving being struck by a car, where in 30mph zones they are more likey to appear in the death statistics?

In short, increased injury rate in a zone that has a 20mph speed limit is a good thing becuase it means more people are surviving strikes and less people are being killed (as demonstrated by the figures).


Nope. None of the above.

Examine the figures and the claims for yourself.

See: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/SafeSpeedPR/message/417
Note links to source data and calculations.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2007 00:37 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
Nope. None of the above.

Examine the figures and the claims for yourself.


Hmm, but in your figures you've not taken into account deaths at all.

I don't see how you could discount my theory on that basis.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2007 00:49 
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weepej wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
Nope. None of the above.

Examine the figures and the claims for yourself.


Hmm, but in your figures you've not taken into account deaths at all.

I don't see how you could discount my theory on that basis.


Rubbish. KSI='killed or seriously injured'. Look again.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2007 10:40 
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I calculated the ratios of killed/injury crashes and got the following results:

20mph 1.5%
30mph 0.8%

It should be noted that only 15 crashes were fatal in 2006 in 20mph zones, so the numbers may be too small for true statistical significance.

Nevertheless the pattern is preserved. 20mph zone crashes are bigger by this measure too.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2007 11:59 
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Last week (sat?) I heard a government (minister?) on breakfast TV quoting Portsmouth as a 20mph success.
Last week Paul was on radio solent talking to a Portsmouth councilor and Paul asked the councilor if it had been a success. The councilor ducked the question saying that it was early days and only (1/3rd??) of the city had been running the 20 zone and only for a few months.

The minister then came out with "we have the 7th safest roads in Europe (as if it was a good thing) We had the safest!!!!!!

Its lucky we don't have a gun culture... I would have shot them all by now!

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This approach has been endorsed by Attorney General ever since 1951. CPS Code


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2007 11:59 
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And to complete the set, I calculated the killed/ksi ratios and got the following:

20mph 8.9%
30mph 6.0%

So every severity calculation points to 'worse' in 20mph zones.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 13:11 
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What Paul seems to have found here is that the Department of Transport are using flawed statistics to force through their policies.

I have just written to my MP on this. I know it's a pain but if enough of us contact the MP's often enough we may get somewhere.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 13:58 
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bad company wrote:
What Paul seems to have found here is that the Department of Transport are using flawed statistics to force through their policies.

I have just written to my MP on this. I know it's a pain but if enough of us contact the MP's often enough we may get somewhere.

That would be the same flawed statistics that they regurgitated in response to the "scrap speed cameras" e-petition. They even admitted that the statistics were flawed (in that they ignored regression to the mean).

The standard government policy is that if something doesn't work, that's because there isn't enough of it. Good luck with your letter. :banghead:

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 14:51 
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nedsram wrote:
bad company wrote:
What Paul seems to have found here is that the Department of Transport are using flawed statistics to force through their policies.

I have just written to my MP on this. I know it's a pain but if enough of us contact the MP's often enough we may get somewhere.

That would be the same flawed statistics that they regurgitated in response to the "scrap speed cameras" e-petition. They even admitted that the statistics were flawed (in that they ignored regression to the mean).

The standard government policy is that if something doesn't work, that's because there isn't enough of it. Good luck with your letter. :banghead:


I share your frustration Brian but what else can we do?? Unless somebody has a miracle to offer it's just a matter of keeping on at them until the powers that be see the sence of what we are saying.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 20:06 
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The trouble is, and many will back me up on this, there is no evidence that the DfT even care what is sensible [or sane]
There is even less reason to believe that democracy is more than just a 9 letter word.
We elect councillors to run the council, which is in reality run by hired businessmen/women who are used to TELLING people what WILL be done, and the idea of democracy in a company atmosphere is heresy.
When you translate this across to national government you begin to see the problem/s we have, and are going to continue to have.
If you get enough people involved and objecting, then the "grand idea" stalls, only to re-appear under another name in another place, with the same people forwarding it as another "grand plan". Which is where all these "silly" 20mph ideas come from....everyone with a brain KNOWS they won't work because "they" have the same figures YOU have....but it is another stepping-stone in another "grand plan", the end result will be no private transport (except for those for who it is "essential" (who will doubtless be those who mooted all the "silly" ideas in the first place))


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 21:06 
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jomukuk wrote:
The trouble is, and many will back me up on this, there is no evidence that the DfT even care what is sensible [or sane]


Things is, there an obvious spurious result here that will have a logical explanation.

Every study of newly introduced 20mph zones shows a decrease in injuries, and an almost total absense of deaths.

That people would use an obviously spurious result to call for the immeadiate cessation of 20mph zone rollout in residential areas, when all other research show they cut injury and death, says a lot.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 21:36 
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weepej wrote:
Every study of newly introduced 20mph zones shows a decrease in injuries, and an almost total absense of deaths.

That people would use an obviously spurious result to call for the immediate cessation of 20mph zone rollout in residential areas, when all other research show they cut injury and death, says a lot.

Would you mind linking to these studies so everyone can analyse them?

What worries me is the very real possibility of these sites suffering from RTTM - the fraudulent taking credit for an inevitable natural reduction after a short-term random spike. Unfortunately it has happened, see this for a recent and relevant example. See this for an explanation.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 00:35 
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weepej wrote:
Things is, there an obvious spurious result here that will have a logical explanation.


Ah yes. DfT method: When the facts don't fit the theory, discard the facts.

These are comprehensive national figures, not a limited study with biases, preconceptions or reputations to protect.

We see it again and again and again. We're used to it.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 07:59 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
It should be noted that only 15 crashes were fatal in 2006 in 20mph zones, so the numbers may be too small for true statistical significance.

Nevertheless the pattern is preserved. 20mph zone crashes are bigger by this measure too.

The error band (1SD) would be at least +/- 4 approx (square-root of 15), or about 26%, based on a Poison distribution for random events.

So any variation between 10 and 20 would not be statistically significant. However, the trend was preserved with respect to fatalities, as well as for serious injuries.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution

Variance equals the mean (Lamda), where the square root of the variance is called the standard deviation.

Ref: The number of soldiers killed by horse-kicks each year in each corps in the Prussian cavalry. This example was made famous by a book of Ladislaus Josephovich Bortkiewicz (1868–1931).
.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 08:42 
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If you needed a reminder that 20mph kills when added to innatention...
http://www.thisishampshire.net/news/dai ... to_van.php

Quote:
Christopher Johnson-Newell was travelling at more than 20mph when he ploughed into the rear doors of the white Volkswagen LT35 van.

Southampton Coroner's Court heard that Mr Johnson-Newell, a keen cyclist, had probably been riding with his head down when the accident took place.
~~~
"The cause of this accident is most likely to be due to inattention of the rider and his riding position," he said.

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“It has never been the rule in this country – I hope it never will be - that suspected criminal offences must automatically be the subject of prosecution” He added that there should be a prosecution: “wherever it appears that the offence or the circumstances of its commission is or are of such a character that a prosecution in respect thereof is required in the public interest”
This approach has been endorsed by Attorney General ever since 1951. CPS Code


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