GreenShed wrote:
Steve wrote:
GreenShed wrote:
You have missed an important point that I have explained many times before...here it is again:
The cameras were placed at locations that had a high incidence of KSI collisions and excess speed.
The success or otherwise of the cameras or any other road safety measure is measured in reduction in KSI casualties.
You yourself have missed an important point that we all have explained many times before...here it is again:Regression to the Mean, the most obvious and widely known confounding factor of them all! How come pro-camera types always dismiss this critical factor, one on its own proven to be way more significant than the camera itself?
Ah ha! throw in an unrelated point to counter another. What's that got to do with the difference between collisions and casualties? I am well aware of regression artefacts and need no reminding of them from you.
This wasn't my unrelated point - I had merely responded to your own point

Camera success is indeed measured in KSI reduction, but many other things cause KSI reduction, even at camera sites; hence so it follows that the standard measure for camera success, as you have quoted it, is an false one.
I believe this was the original intent of your contribution within this thread....so it's not so unrelated is it?

GreenShed wrote:
I have lots of references but find it odd that you would need to be made familiar with them.
Would I be right to assume you agree that it is not in any way fair to give references to papers we don't have access to (without paying for it). Given this, can you please furnish with full texts or direct links?
Out of those 6 references, I could find only the 1 paper (
Nilsson, G. (2004) Traffic safety dimensions and the power model to describe the effect of speed on safety. Bulletin 221, Lund Institute of Technology, Lund).This one is exactly as overly simplistic as I had expected.
Within it there is no mention of the effects of:
- tiredness or fatigue (which was one of my other points surrounding speed Vs crash involvement),
- displacement - the change of exposure with change of limit (pulling from/pushing to the road with the changed limit; the tests were done on selected roads, not the surrounding network)
- suitability of limit before the change (where travelling at the speed limit really would have been dangerous).
- variable limits, so displacing the exposure to safer (less congested) periods
Therefore, this analysis is again overly simplistic; there is no differentiation or compensation of any sort. This reference does indeed support your statement, but it fails my basic and simple scrutiny (unless you can counter it).
GreenShed wrote:
There is no obvious counter at all; I would say you have used the figures in the tables to form an argument that is an assumed counter but you have no credible evidence for that, perhaps you would like to advance it here.
Sorry, are you saying you need credible evidence that '
going slower, for longer, (all else equal) will make the issue of fatigue worse' before you can accept the existence of it? Really?

I give this as a logically sound argument. There was no evidence to support RTTM prior to the Four Year Report, should that have prevented people (like us) from expressing that argument too?
This campaign doesn't have the resources to carry out such work - but the SCPs and/or the DfT do, and they should have done - so where is it?
GreenShed wrote:
I don't follow the Traffic Police reference, sorry, where did you get that from?
How has the camera policy allowed boy racers to flourish. Has there been an increase in their numbers beyond the demographic normal? I have no idea if there has or has not from what evidence do you make this claim?
There is no evidence, for or against; again I give this as a logically sound argument. What is there to regulate their activities if there is now less to stop them? Do you have reason to believe the joyriding/racer demographic has remained the same given that trafpol numbers (the only thing that can stop them) are declining?
My point was that the campaign isn't calling for something which is 'socially unacceptable and scientifically proven to be inefficacious'. By all means expand on your point so we can discuss this further.
Can you link to the campaign pages where policies which are 'socially unacceptable and scientifically proven to be inefficacious' are called for? I would like to see these.
GreenShed wrote:
Steve wrote:
The simple fact is: there is no conclusive proof, proof that passes simple and basic scrutiny, that cameras have any positive impact, and that's even before considering the displacement of trafpol.
The problem you have is that simple and basic scrutiny doesn't do the job does it? As I have shown in these few posts.
No you haven't. Please show where you've shown speed cameras have been proven to have a positive impact when considering all the following factors:
- RTTM
- Bias on selection (non-camera-based safety features),
- long-term trends (non-local improvements),
- exposure ('push'ed displacement to safer roads),
- less overall travel (prohibitive fuel costs, credit crunch),
- concerted crackdown of other offences (e.g. driving while impaired)
If you manage this then you'll have succeeded where so many SCP PR staff have failed for the last ~9 years.
Unless you demonstrate that 'bias on selection' (for example) cannot be a confounding factor of speed camera effectiveness, your response is invalid.
GreenShed wrote:
You can't simply quote a few unrelated principles and ask for references in the hope that someone who states a principle with which you disagrees will find it too hard to give an answer; in asking for the references you have you have shown that your understanding is at a basic level and it is hardly surprising that you are finding it difficult to counter with some cogent material. You need to amass some worthwhile references of your own to support your campaign as I have masses of them to support the counter to it. References with safespeed.org.uk don't cut it I'm afraid. Look wider.
I have never stated my understanding is at an advanced level; my point all along was that the claims of the effectiveness of the speed camera policy demonstrates a failure of understanding at even the basic level of those who make those claims.
We shouldn't be the experts here, but for us to show glaring errors on the part of SCP PR staff makes one wonder if, relatively speaking, we really are the experts.