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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 12:39 
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graball wrote:
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A vehicle travelling at 30mph at the onset of an incident would stop in 75 feet.
The same vehicle initially travelling at 36mph would still be travelling at 22.72 mph at the 75 foot distance.
http://www.brake.org.uk/Sites/brake/dow ... 0sheet.doc
All this proves is that whether you are travelling at 30MPH or 36MPH or 70MPH to make sure that if there is an "incident" that you are going to stop within your stopping distance before the "incident". What if you ARE travelling at 30MPH and the "incident" occurs 50 feet in front of you? You are still going to be travelling at a speed when you hit the 50 feet point. Facts and figures mean nothing if you can't translate them into actual safe driving skills.

Precisely - the environment that you start to enter, tells you so much about what maybe about to, or possibly will be, likely, to happen.
Bettering one's skills and ability help 'one' predict and learn from experience. Accidents don't 'just' happen, there are almost always tell-tell warning signs that are there is your are observant and aware (etc).

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 12:54 
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I think this thread misses the point.
The reduction in speed limits has its root not in safety but in traffic reduction.
Plus, you can go-on about the 85th percentile to your hearts content, most people just think "less injury at low speeds"
It's hard to argue that if the vehicles are traveling slower then there will be more time to avoid problems and less injury if they hit anyone.
Most people do not obey 30mph limits, and even less obey 20mph limits: Even when they are justified.
The village I live in has just had the speed limit reduced to 30mph, from 40.
The plans for a variable limit, 20 at school open/close times has been halted while assessments are made of the effectiveness of the speed limit reduction. It looks like it will be proceeded with..the average speed of most cars since the limit reduction is 38mph. One van was measured at 67mph, most trucks average 36mph. Looks like the speed cameras are going to be out soon. AND that's with a flashing speed warning sign....around here the 85th percentile would be about 38mph then....
One school, in the middle of the village. Two farms, adjacent to the school. One church and one meeting hall. All in a one hundred metre stretch. I think that a 30 limit is justified.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 13:06 
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dcbwhaley wrote:
Steve wrote:
Have you not been keeping up? It's not like this hasn't come up time and time again.
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/speedlimits.html
Would I be right in guessing that you're towards the far left side of the speed/risk 'U' curve?
What is "safe enough"?

The graph in that link does not conclusively demonstrate demonstrate that traveling well below the 85th %ile is more dangerous. It could well be, probably is, that less competent drivers drive at a lower speed. If they increased their speed to that 85th there is no reason to expect their accident rate would fall. More likely the opposite.

Don't forget this is an observation of real world conditions that have occurred and observed.
It is not that all should speed up, but that those that travel at a comfortable speed is not going to cause accidents. The current 'speed kills' policy implies that the faster we go, the worse we get, and accidents will occur but this clearly not the case. As the figures are real and are fact it is hard to understand why they think this way as it is not the real world case.
As I have said in above post, the more that you look at the overall trends and driver / rider patterns the more you / one can appreciate the good driver practices.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 13:12 
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jomukuk wrote:
I think that a 30 limit is justified.

That one may well be; however...

Any rule set inappropriately tends to get ignored (deliberately and accidentally). The non-compliance isn't an issue where it is set inappropriately, but the value of that rule is generally diminished and fosters non-compliance elsewhere, even where the rule truly is appropriate.

With so many drivers ignoring the motorway speed limits (54%) and many more feeling the limit is set inappropriately (71%), is it any wonder that a few of these don't bother abiding by other limits?

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 13:25 
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When you have a school-full of children walking along a road at the same times, and drivers willfully ignore a speed limit (even the 40mph limit was ignored) you have to start thinking that the problem is not that the speed limit is set too low, but that many drivers are arrogant, stupid and uncaring. Don't forget, we had one woman killed (pushing her children out of the way) and another maimed for life in just one accident, along with several shunts (including another a few weeks ago)...where the drivers were exceeding the speed limit. This isn't a motorway, where all the cars are going the same direction at about the same speed.
Good drivers and bad drivers are on the same road, at the same time/s.
Lowering the speed of one [type] lowers the speed of all types. At least that's the theory.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 14:04 
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SafeSpeedv2 wrote:
weepej wrote:
dcbwhaley wrote:
The graph in that link does not conclusively demonstrate demonstrate that travelling well below the 85th %ile is more dangerous. It could well be, probably is, that less competent drivers drive at a lower speed. If they increased their speed to that 85th there is no reason to expect their accident rate would fall. More likely the opposite.

The text below it also seems to assert that crashes that involve a slow driver are automatically the fault of the driver who's going slow. That's quite a common thread on this site.
Doddery old fool at 30 mph on a UK "A" road suitable for 60 mph. Of course he has an elevated crash risk. He does not know what he is doing. That's why he's doing 30 mph with a queue of increasingly frustrated traffic behind.
A single vehicle in lane 3 of a busy motorway. It's obvious that as the speed is reduced below 55 mph the crash risk will increase.

Cherry picking will not help any discussion as points being made are then not only taken out of context (deliberately) but the point of the meanings purpose is lost.
Safe driving and concentrating on improving those that are not 'up to par' may often be a subtle point that is missed.
One has to understand where the safest drivers are to start to comprehend what is best practice.
NO ONE has ever said that if someone is comfortable at proceeding at a slow speed that they are comfortable with that this in itself is always wrong. In some circumstances it can be of course. Police do book people for both excessive and slow speed when they are considered to be dangerous.
Understanding the purpose of safe areas of driving (road users), is fundamental to understanding safe driving (road user) practices. Once you understand where the safest areas exist you can make various conclusions. Once you have a collection of conclusions patterns and trend emerge. Those best practices help indicate who are the safest.
So when the discussion becomes one of a few individuals bad practices or one or two incidents the overall benefit of understanding road safety is lost nto a narrow discussion.
Nothing wrong in discussing a few individual driving behaviours but it is a different disucussion, pin pointing a driver behaviour/s and whether or why (etc.) that is right or wrong. Then depending upon the topic running in the thread, will then depend on if you chaps are trying to introduce a specific example is then either on or off topic.
In this case this topic is about the overall trend and system so to introduce individual examples discussed is likely off topic.

You are of course having a laugh, the Solomon curve that was not referred to but obviously used in the article on this site has been shown to be incorrect in subsequent and more thorough research.
See:
http://casr.adelaide.edu.au/speed/vol-1.html#sec4.1
That contains this curve:
Image
Perhaps you are just struggling to keep up rather than ignoring what is not convenient.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 14:10 
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jomukuk wrote:
When you have a school-full of children walking along a road at the same times, and drivers willfully ignore a speed limit ....

The drivers may accidentally exceed the speed limit (possibly through mere habit), the lack of intent also stemming from the diminished value of limits.

jomukuk wrote:
This isn't a motorway...

That doesn't matter. The point being that the inappropriate setting of the limits on some roads (whatever they are) can (and likely do) diminish the perceived value of them on other roads.

We need appropriate limits - everywhere! Inappropriately reducing them on the basis of 'it can't do any harm' is misguided and dangerous. Besides, if motorway limits were higher, people would be more inclined to use them instead of cutting through rural roads, thereby displacing and reducing exposure.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 14:28 
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chunky123 wrote:
You are of course having a laugh, the Solomon curve that was not referred to but obviously used in the article on this site has been shown to be incorrect in subsequent and more thorough research.
See:
http://casr.adelaide.edu.au/speed/vol-1.html#sec4.1
That contains this curve:

Perhaps you are just struggling to keep up rather than ignoring what is not convenient.

I bet that study didn't account for biases such as
- reduced exposure ('push'ed displacement to non-control roads),
- long-term trends (non-local improvements),
- concerted crackdown of other offences (e.g. driving while impaired)
- RTTM (using roads with an inflated baseline)
- bias on selection, where the roads with reduced limits have other safety measures applied to them.

For the last one: take the M3 J2 southbound as an example. The limit there has been reduced and is enforced by speed cam. I have no doubt the KSI rate reduced there (even though I saw a car shiny side down next to one of the SPECS poles), but is any KSI reduction due to the speed reduction/enforcement, or the engineering of the road such that traffic from M25 east and M25 west now have their own dedicated lanes instead of sharing what was a rather inadequate slip road?

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 14:30 
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jomukuk wrote:
I think this thread misses the point.
The reduction in speed limits has its root not in safety but in traffic reduction.
Plus, you can go-on about the 85th percentile to your hearts content, most people just think "less injury at low speeds"

I agree that the overall 'speed kills' and many other current policies are very likely to be there to reduce traffic and vehicles. There was an EU policy that stated that by 2010 I think it was that there would be a 25% reduction in UK traffic !

The interesting 'go slower' makes it 'safer' sound logical and sounds plausible but it a far bigger and more complex issue than this very simple 'policy' propaganda. By making the public believe that road safety is this simple helps carry the 'we must all go more slowly and then there will be less deaths' - it is wrong and seriously morally appalling, not to say that the facts speak for themselves.
This is particularly troubling as it is not public opinion that should be deciding on road safety. It is proper and intelligent research carried out by government and the results shown acted upon in the best ability of the government in an unbiased manner to try to ensure the best results.

No one would like to trust a non medical person / neighbour to operate on them !

jomukuk wrote:
It's hard to argue that if the vehicles are traveling slower then there will be more time to avoid problems and less injury if they hit anyone.

No it's not. :)
But it maybe difficult for the 'average chap/ess' who has not looked or studied road safety in detail to fully appreciate, all the facts and figures.
The logic of go slow go safe and give yourself greater time to react, is fine except if one is driving (riding) appropriately in the first place then the potential hazard/s that are presented have already been allowed for.
By understanding what is important and how to encourage drivers / riders to 'do the right thing' int he first place is more basic and more correct than 'go slow and you will be safe' which is flippant and not fundamental enough to give out a proper message and has side effects that can make a driver / rider worse and far worse.
jomukuk wrote:
Most people do not obey 30mph limits, and even less obey 20mph limits: Even when they are justified.

to make drivers try to choose the safest speed, will be very variable on any one road length. It will be influenced by the local environments as they are met. One day will be a different speed to another day very commonly.
Driver's riders have to choose and appropriate speed suitable to the conditions. If driver's rider's are not recognising hazards, that need to be tackled from both angles - why they are not recognising the hazard, and how the hazards can be reduced and made 'clearer' - all needs to be looked at and researched and developed appropriately.
A sign that says 'school' is considered in the mid summer as less important than in the spring or fall. I never have a clear idea when schools are or are not operational, but as soon as I see one child on the street / car, TV news, (etc.) I know they are 'back', but that is only knowledge, not road information. When I drive as soon as you see people on the roads/ pavements (etc) then you slow appropriately even more than you have already for the urban (semi-orban) area already. Getting people to know when they need to apply a slower for action speed and increase obs ability is crucial to help road safety. That must be developed and encouraged. As soon as that specific hazard is passed, a small increase in speed maybe possible, but if still in the general area or specific problem area, speed is kept at a rate that one can stop in the distance that is clear. Once passed however an increase in speed can be applied, again so that one can travel so that stop in the distance clear.
Just 'going slowly' does not make it 'safe' acting and reacting makes it correct. A bored driver going slower than is required lets their mind wander and are less aware or observant - that is highly dangerous.
jomukuk wrote:
The village I live in has just had the speed limit reduced to 30mph, from 40.
The plans for a variable limit, 20 at school open/close times has been halted while assessments are made of the effectiveness of the speed limit reduction. It looks like it will be proceeded with..the average speed of most cars since the limit reduction is 38mph. One van was measured at 67mph, most trucks average 36mph. Looks like the speed cameras are going to be out soon. AND that's with a flashing speed warning sign....around here the 85th percentile would be about 38mph then....

Well the van might have been safe but it sounds too high from your description BUT there was no incident I take it. So a 'proved' got away with and excessive but that alone makes it a piece of bad driving, from the sounds of it, but was it dangerous, possibly. The precise circumstances need to be observed and understood and then assessed. If s/he was just exiting the 40mph (?prior to limit drop) and there was just open fields then it probably was safe but not legal.
If it was in the centre of the 'busy section' with a few people about, and a few side roads and openings - you mention farms and a school then it might have been highly dangerous. But the conditions establish whether at that precise moment it was or wasn't dangerous with the 'likelihood' of potential hazards presenting a action or reaction.
More research would be needed. Local speed limits are being changed from the 'average' suitable limit to potentially lower than necessarily slower limits. See the conditions driving is being replaced with - this speed is appropriate when it is busy, but in fact that is wrong, as often when busy 10 or 5mh might be correct. Making drivers / riders go slower than necessary is frustrating and makes a mockery of the limit. All road users have to be responsible, and all drivers and riders need to drive or ride at appropriate speeds to conditions. When danger areas present, a slower speed is immediately necessary, as that hazard increases, continuing to slow is appropriate, when they subside or go then an increase in speed is appropriate.
All reasons for hazard areas need to be researched and checked. I hear of public reporting problems and told until someone dies then we will look at it. That is appalling. We need more money spent on research and development. But we do not need a society that is overly protected and that must be considered. There is an underlying and very worrying building fear of all traffic instilled into 'the public'. Well a healthy respect and caution is good. We all need to 'get on' be courteous and behave as well as possible at all times.
Modern aids and better engineering may help a specific road user route, and resources are needed for this.
Improving every road users ability to understand potential hazards and awareness of dangers is good, making each understand each others expectations and behaviour manners helps society interact.
perception of hazards can be improved - as can awareness of danger.
Speed alone is not the real issue, but awareness and observations that govern chosen speeds.
jomukuk wrote:
One school, in the middle of the village. Two farms, adjacent to the school. One church and one meeting hall. All in a one hundred metre stretch. I think that a 30 limit is justified.

It could be but at 2 in the morning is anything moving outside ? If road users were traveling at a speed appropriate to conditions then at night a 45 mph might be OK but during the day evening at busy times I could imagine 10 being appropriate easily.
I assume you have a school sign, farm sign and maybe a pedestrians in road ahead sign perhaps ? maybe a few concealed driveways ?
The advantage of VAS has helped to remind drivers just what speed they are traveling at and that has shown to help drivers realise that it is too fast for conditions in 'this area', so drivers / riders slow. Good public info films (etc) can also help back this basic driving / riding requirement.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 14:34 
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chunky123 wrote:
Perhaps you are just struggling to keep up rather than ignoring what is not convenient.


Not in the slightest. :) The facts of all the information, and facts speak for themselves.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 14:47 
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jomukuk wrote:
.... but that many drivers are arrogant, stupid and uncaring. Don't forget, we had one woman killed (pushing her children out of the way) and another maimed for life in just one accident, along with several shunts (including another a few weeks ago)...where the drivers were exceeding the speed limit..... Good drivers and bad drivers are on the same road, at the same time/s.
Lowering the speed of one [type] lowers the speed of all types. At least that's the theory.

Never really works ... The drivers maybe driving inappropriately but tackling that is not done by reducing a speed limit, but by making drivers aware of the dangers and how to act appropriately, sensibly and with good observations and awareness skills.
I am sorry to hear of your particular village tragic events. I would strongly ask the Council to appoint a road engineer for their researched opinion.
One town in Kent had pavement areas, painted just as wide red lines on the street level (yes removed the pavements) and that slowed traffic as they recognised the increased danger perceptions and slowed as a whole.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 15:01 
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chunky123 wrote:
You are of course having a laugh, the Solomon curve that was not referred to but obviously used in the article on this site has been shown to be incorrect in subsequent and more thorough research.
See:
http://casr.adelaide.edu.au/speed/vol-1.html#sec4.1
Perhaps you are just struggling to keep up rather than ignoring what is not convenient.

Interesting.

4.1.1 Data Collection on Cars Involved in Casualty Crashes
Of 952 injury crashes investigated 804 were excluded.
325 of the excluded were because no ambulance was required (Low speed?).
148 of the excluded were because vehicle did not have a free travelling speed.

Out of 952 crashes only 148 were deemed valid for this study.

This almost seems to be a case of "We have a conclusion, lets find the data to confirm it."


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 15:11 
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chunky123 wrote:
You are of course having a laugh, the Solomon curve that was not referred to but obviously used in the article on this site has been shown to be incorrect in subsequent and more thorough research.
See:
http://casr.adelaide.edu.au/speed/vol-1.html#sec4.1
That contains this curve: http://casr.adelaide.edu.au/speed/fig/fig4p3.gif


These graphs are from the Australian survey done mostly with very specific sector in mind and after that graph it states : (Here)
Quote:
4.1.5 Free Travelling Speed Crash Types
Each crash involving a free travelling speed case vehicle was classified into one of 11 crash types. In crashes with multiple case vehicles, the crash type was classified separately for each vehicle. The average travelling speed of the case vehicles and the associated controls in each category was also calculated. The results are shown in Table 4.4.

Table 4.4
Crash Type and Average Travelling Speed - Crash Type - Number of Cases - Per cent of Cases - Average Case Speed (km/h) - Average Control Speed (km/h)
Oncoming vehicle turned right across path 55 36.4 68.9 59.0
Vehicle entering from left turned right across path 23 15.2 63.0 58.6
Loss of control followed by collision 14 9.3 82.6 63.3
Rear end collision with vehicle in front 14 9.3 63.5 60.4
Hit pedestrian or bicyclist 12 7.9 62.8 61.6
Vehicle crossing in front from right to left 9 6.0 65.2 56.4
Vehicle doing U-turn in front 8 5.3 65.1 60.6
Vehicle crossing in front from left to right 7 4.6 62.7 60.3
Hit by an out of control vehicle 7 4.6 66.4 65.0
Vehicle on right turned right into path 1 0.7 66.0 61.3
Side swiped vehicle travelling in the same direction 1 0.7 92.0 58.0
Total 151 - 100.0 - 67.6 - 59.9

The most common crash types in the sample were an oncoming vehicle turning right across the path of the free travelling speed vehicle (36%) and a vehicle turning right from the side street on the left of the free travelling speed vehicle (15%). These two categories accounted for over half of all the crash types.
Disregarding the last two categories in Table 4.4 because of the single cases, the crash types associated with the highest free travelling speeds were: losing control of the vehicle followed by a collision (average speed = 83 km/h); and having an oncoming vehicle turn right across the path of the free travelling speed vehicle (average speed = 69 km/h).

So then it was inattention that caused the accidents and other vehicles entering the path of the oncoming car - a possibility that blind spots helped to cause the accidents than the specific speed per se.
Many issues have been included and excluded and it all seems on scanning the data rather light-hearted than a real scientific study ! Very concerning actually that anyone would want put this forward as proof of any fact. It is rather an idea than hard proof.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 17:17 
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chunky123 wrote:
You are of course having a laugh, the Solomon curve that was not referred to but obviously used in the article on this site has been shown to be incorrect in subsequent and more thorough research
http://casr.adelaide.edu.au/speed/vol-1.html#sec4.1
That contains this curve:
Image


Yes I am having a laugh :lol: :lol: At someone having the effrontery to present that graph as evidence of anything. The size of the error bars on the higher speeds are so large as to turn the curve into nothing more than a wild guess at the top end. And the presenter has chosen to virtually disregard the large error bar at 40kph, presumably because that reinforces his prejudice..

Even if you disregard that the graph shows that there will be sixty times more accidents on a moterway than on a 30mph road and that the accident rate falls to zero at 20mph. Not very much in line with reality.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 17:35 
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Typical childish nonesense that I have come to expect from this contributor.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 20:04 
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The problem with the thinking of peopler like weepej, brake etc is that they always assume that there HAS TO BE an accident, so the faster you are going the more severe it will be. They cannot comprehend that accident rates CAN be reduced, sometimes by increasing speeds. If you got a dead straight road with very little traffic (even going down to zero apart from yourself) what is dangerous with travelling that road at say 130mph if the car is a good one?

To the majority of motorists they would say ...no problem, the road is safe , the car is safe, accident likelyhood is next to zero.

The doom merchants would say...ahhh but IF you did have an accident what then? They cannot see reality for the chance of the unlikely.

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My views do not represent Safespeed but those of a driver who has driven for 39 yrs, in all conditions, at all times of the day & night on every type of road and covered well over a million miles, so knows a bit about what makes for safety on the road,what is really dangerous and needs to be observed when driving and quite frankly, the speedo is way down on my list of things to observe to negotiate Britain's roads safely, but I don't expect some fool who sits behind a desk all day to appreciate that.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 20:06 
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It's abit like saying, "I'm not going out of the house today, it's friday the 13th and something's bound to happen to me"...what would happen if the whole world took that attitude?

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 20:15 
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Of course the real difference is that (thankfully), the majority of us live in the real world whereas a few of us live in "their own little world".

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 21:27 
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Ahh at last, you are coming round to my way of thinking....good...so you agree that rural roads can have a 70MPH speed limit so long as people drive carefully on them...yes?

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 21:32 
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graball wrote:
Ahh at last, you are coming round to my way of thinking....good...so you agree that rural roads can have a 70MPH speed limit so long as people drive carefully on them...yes?


What, at 50mph? Why have a limit greater than 50 then?


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