Thank you for your thorough response. It is rare to find an opposer who responds to all the points raised (without resorting to convenient quoting). Apologies for the longer post in return.
Peyote wrote:
I would agree with this, where I think we differ is that I believe the chances of the effect of cameras being negative are far lower than you do,
That's fair enough. In the absence of hard data it will be difficult for anyone to agree on a quantitative level. However, we agree that it is plausible, for me that’s enough to cast doubt on even the adjusted claims of camera effectiveness. Don't you think it odd such data/studies still isn't available after so many years, even though there are 43 sets of professional, paid, full-time SCP PR and analysis staff working on it? What have they been doing for the last 9 years?
Peyote wrote:
and the chances of cameras providing wider benefits other than 'saving lives' are potentially greater. Unfortunately this latter point isn't widely picked up and publicised by the media. I guess it doesn't provide the catchy soundbite that 'saving lives' does.
What do you think these wider benefits are?
There are so many more negative
side effects to consider too.
Peyote wrote:
It guides the uninformed and apathetic reader, I'd like to believe that most readers have enough experience of these matters not to be taken in too much by the soundbites. I suppose it boils down to how much truth you (as a reader) glean from whatever your source of information is.
Not wanting to pick on you, but I would think it fair to say you're not apathetic (well you here for a start), yet you fell for the illusions, as did I (and I’m hardly apathetic). I think it reasonable to say that the majority of the population has fallen for it too. After all this time the SCPs haven’t changed their ways even after their errors has been proven. Isn't that enough to damage the credibility of the SCPs?
Peyote wrote:
The revenue generation side of things is an interesting distraction for me, but not one I take seriously because it really isn't difficult to avoid being caught! All IMHO of course.
My mum thought that until recently - the limits were dropped (40 signs removed) and a mobile unit was sneakily deployed. Given many of today’s ever reducing and needlessly low limits (especially on motorways and previously NSL roads), it is actually quite easy to be caught out. Millions of drivers will agree with me.
Peyote wrote:
I'm not sure that the level of support would've reduced that much. I know about RTTM and BOS and I'm still a supporter of cameras, though I recognise that their use should be reviewed (not shelved). It would've made sense to include the aspects Safespeed has raised into an analysis (and subsequent publicity) of their effectiveness though.
Like you I was a supporter, then after digging (deeper than you) I turned totally against; at least you're now wanting a review and are now open to the principle that cameras may not offer any overall positive benefit at all. The rest of the population will most likely be a bit of both (depending on how much of our arguments we get out there), and I think that's enough to justify my point. I would be happy to have a fully open review (oh god yes, I know where it will lead) – this is an obvious must, it has been for a long time, so why hasn’t it happened? I won't be surprised if such a review never happens; I've dug really deep (deeper than most) and I've directly tested SCP staff with my arguments - you can see that outcome for yourself if you've been following these forums.
Peyote wrote:
I had a feeling you'd disagree! I guess we're just looking at the same situation from differing viewpoints. From my perspective the roads have been an area with little law enforcement for a very long time,
I’m looking at the safety aspect and reasonably expected behaviours; you’re looking at compliance of just one behaviour.
You may feel there has been little law enforcement, you might be right, but that level has been falling since cameras were introduced (when considering enforcement of all behaviours of all road users).
Peyote wrote:
…as soon as a solution to one aspect of this lack of enforcement comes along the status quo is changed and suddenly everyone is up in arms because the stuff they've been able to get away with for years is no longer so easy to get away with.
You didn’t understand me, the cameras are at least part of the reason for that lack of enforcement; the only solution is to return that level to where it should have been (and we’ve already paid for it through ever increasing taxation on driving, so it’s not like we’re not entitled). But it’s even more than that: this misrepresentation we’re discussing has also resulted with many drops of speed limits, so its not so much about 'getting away with what we used to', it’s more like now can’t do what we safely and legally did before. On top of that, cars and roads are and have always been designed/engineered to be safer, so to maintain the
effective status quo we’re actually entitled to higher limits (such as on motorways where the majority want higher limits).
The most dangerous drivers have it really easy now. It is much easier for their bad behaviours to evade detection and for them to evade capture even if detected. Remember, the campaign isn’t against speed limits or the enforcement of them.
Peyote wrote:
Now we back to opinions I'm afraid Steve, you say greatly exaggerated, but we don't really know how much, do we? Then there's the other benefits associated with the use of cameras which always get overlooked in these discussions.
Sorry but you are wrong. The SCPs claims are not opinions, they are quantified statements – we know the minimum level of exaggeration. Their claims were of a 55% drop; it is actually a 10% drop (that’s not accounting for 'bias on selection'). You cannot deny that the SCPs claims (of the tools they promote and benefit by) are greatly exaggerated/misrepresented
at least a factor of 5.5 times.
Peyote wrote:
Steve wrote:
IMO: all SCPs should be disbanded for their reprehensible conduct within the road safety debate.
...
Can one reasonably argue against it?
I'm trying in this thread!
I have to say that so far you haven't succeeded. I've proven to your satisfaction that there is a strong exaggeration (or at least wanton misrepresentation) and that the exaggeration must be even greater than that already quantified.
Remember,
there's exaggerating an existing benefit, and there's claiming one where it might not exist at all.
Peyote wrote:
Does the 550% apply to every single camera?
It was an average of all the 216 cameras used within the analysis (they being urban cameras). That figure is estimated (and logically reasonable) to be higher for non-urban cameras. It's all there within the analysis.
Peyote wrote:
If the current set of SCP claims don't take into account RTTM and BOS then they may be (very?) inaccurate but it doesn't mean that all cameras are useless and need to be ripped out. It means that the SCP claims need to be objectively pulled to bits and the whole thing reviewed.
I can forgive inaccurate, but, the SCPs claims are more than that: they’re deliberately (knowingly) inaccurate!
It also means that there’s no proven benefit from cameras, so why is there talk of having more? This is leading to drivers being needlessly penalised for no proven good reason (especially given the needlessly low limits they enforce), as well as having to accept shoddy traffic policing.
The lack of any open analysis, scrutiny or review from the SCPs even though there is quite obviously a case for it, and after all these years, means the SCPs must be held to account. At the very minimum, the SCPs should be disbanded for their repugnant behaviour (remember, they're full time professionals, we shouldn't know better than them, but evidently we do).
Do you agree that the SCP claims aren't defendable and haven’t been for many years even though groups such as Safe Speed has been broadcasting these errors?
Peyote wrote:
Lobby for honest reviewing, pull to shreds any dishonesty that you encounter. It suggest to me that the procedures in the SCPs for making these claims need a lot of work and a lot more analysis carried out. It doesn't mean there is a conspiracy to wring yet more money out of the beleagured-British-motorist (an oxymoron if ever there was one!).
Disprove claims, expose dishonesty, lobby for honesty! Been there, done all of that! Yet they're still spouting the same crap without acknowledgement of confounding factors, even after all these years!
The fact that after all these years the SCPs haven't done the work they obviously should have done does very strongly suggest there is a level of conspiracy on their part. Remember, these counter arguments are hardly new!
Peyote wrote:
Steve wrote:
We know trafpol numbers have declined during the time that reliance on speed cameras have increased. We know the effectiveness of speed cameras has been greatly over-exaggerated (at minimum) and that system has gained the cost recovery system (yet the more effective yet honest trafpol didn't) so making them appear to be 'for free'.
No real study has been done on this link (not surprising really), but you have to agree that it does make logical sense, more so given the lack of any argument against.
Would you agree that this is another factor that must be reviewed openly and honestly?
Yes, again something that needs to be looked into because, as you say, no real study has been done on this link. The assumption therefore that a link exists is a dangerous one to make.
It is not an assumption. It is clearly stated by the DfT that the cameras are there to free up police: "
It [cameras] would free the police and the courts to concentrate on other offences" [DfT.gov.uk]. Coincidentally, levels of road policing has fallen even though the increased taxation on drivers means they’re entitled to more real police.
Peyote wrote:
- Society should be striving towards the best solution for any given problem and this includes open, honest and objective reviewing.
I completely agree. However, we haven’t had any of that, even after so long.
Peyote wrote:
I still stand by my initial point though Steve!
Being fair: the only relevant point you can stand by is that cameras
may have a (slight) positive impact even after accounting for the three confounding factors.
I stand by the facts that the
claimed quantitative effectiveness is exaggerated/misrepresented by 550%; that exaggeration
will be higher thanks to BOS; cameras can have an overall negative impact; a benefit has never been properly proven. The fact that's there has never been any review, or analysis, or acceptance, or even a
mention of such an obvious factor as BOS, even after all this time and visible lobbying, indicates those who make the claims really are dodging the issue.
Here's an example of such disingenuous behaviour from someone who
quite obviously works for SCP/SCP support (something I have already confirmed). Look how he
responds to the BOS factor; despite my repeated prompts elsewhere, this user has never accepted the possibility of BOS being a factor which should be considered. This is typical of the group we are drawing attention to (which isn’t surprising considering that user is part of it).
I’m happy for a full and open review. That would be a great step towards disbanding the SCPs.