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PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2010 22:39 
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weepej, again wrote:
Speed, speed, speed.


You're missing the point, again. Let me try and explain again.

The accident investigators come up with all these different factors, more than one of which can apply to the same accident.

So, stating that all of them are attributable to just one of the others is failing to grasp their significance in a way that can only be based on dogma or wilful ignorance, or both.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2010 22:40 
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Ok Weepy, you win! 100% of accidents are caused by speed - or speed is a factor in 100% of accidents, whichever you prefer :roll:

Now, to stop all those accidents happening, what speed limits do you feel we should have across the UK?


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2010 22:44 
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Or to put it another way, in the way I think weepej sees it through his speed specs:

7.3% of accidents have excessive speed as a factor.

All the others are made worse by the speed factor that they don't feature.

Hence we have shown that 100 = 7.3.

:clap:


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2010 22:45 
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Mole wrote:
Ok Weepy, you win! 100% of accidents are caused by speed - or speed is a factor in 100% of accidents, whichever you prefer :roll:

Now, to stop all those accidents happening, what speed limits do you feel we should have across the UK?


20mph on urban roads (with a few major roads raised above that, but otherwise blanket 20mph limits), 50 mph on most country roads (redefine NSL as 50mph), 80mph on high grade motorways (with the penalties for exceeding 80 remaining the same as they are today or even strengthened).

Of course this won't prevent all incidents (it may well increase incident rates on motorways so that should be reviewed as well as the other limit changes) but it would help a great deal.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2010 22:47 
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Johnnytheboy wrote:
7.3% of accidents have excessive speed as a factor.



You quote that as if it an actual figure, it's not, it's a figure derived from misuse of statistical data.

Quote:
The Authority accepted that the advertisers had sent sufficient evidence to show that speeding was the largest contributory factor in road collisions and casualties, and concluded that the claim had been substantiated and was not misleading.


http://www.asa.org.uk/Complaints-and-AS ... 39599.aspx


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2010 23:18 
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Whoa, but if slower is safer then how do you justify 20mph?

Also are we to accept the ASA as a scientific authority now? Not to mention that they spoke of speed as a contributory, not causal factor. Is it not preferable to treat the disease rather than the symptoms?

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 00:22 
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RobinXe wrote:
Whoa, but if slower is safer then how do you justify 20mph?

Also are we to accept the ASA as a scientific authority now? Not to mention that they spoke of speed as a contributory, not causal factor. Is it not preferable to treat the disease rather than the symptoms?


Robin -just been looking at another set of posts ,where Weepy didn't actually condemn cycling on the pavement . The disease - cycling on pavements .Perhaps the cure might be to confiscate those cycles where a person on a cycle breaks the law ( or a by law) .He's always on about the absolute offence of speeding .But I don't see him condemning the also absolute offence of cycling on the pavement /any area designated as a pedestrian area .

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 00:36 
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What's happening -on quote "the post does not exist " .

My comment was to quote from Greys elegy(in Stoke Poges graveyard) ,using Weepy as the schoolmaster " AND AS THEY STOOD ,THE MORE THEIR WONDER GREW ,THAT HIS SMALL HEAD COULD HOLD ALL HE KNEW" .( or similar) :evil: ( done from memory).

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 00:38 
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weepej wrote:
Johnnytheboy wrote:
Why aren't you so concerned about the factors that cause more accidents, like:

Failing to judge other persons path or speed 10.7%


Speed related, higher speeds more chance of this happening.

Johnnytheboy wrote:
Behaviour - careless/thoughtless/reckless 8.8%


Speed related, trying to drive too fast.

Johnnytheboy wrote:
Inattention 8.0%


Much worse when done at speed.

Johnnytheboy wrote:
Looked but did not see 7.5%


Trying to drive too fast.

Weepej, some of those simply don't follow - you're clearly trying desperately to blame everything on one factor.

Why do you so steadfastly assume 'speed' when there are other factors causing these, such as: fatigue, or impairment, or distraction, or bad road layout, or inconsiderateness, or pig ignorance, etc - or are all these caused by speed too :roll:

"Pedestrian failed too look properly" - oh that must be driving speed related - right?!?

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 06:44 
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Steve wrote:
Weepej, some of those simply don't follow - you're clearly trying desperately to blame everything on one factor.Why do you so steadfastly assume 'speed' when there are other factors causing these, such as: fatigue, or impairment, or distraction, or bad road layout, or inconsiderateness, or pig ignorance, etc - or are all these caused by speed too :roll:


My reading of Weeps posts doesn't see him trying to blame every accident on speed. He is making a very valid point that all those other factors are exacerbated by higher speeds.

Quote:
"Pedestrian failed too look properly" - oh that must be driving speed related - right?!?

A perfect example. Pedestrian steps into the road in front of a car doing 20mph and car can stop without hitting him. Same car doing 150mph - fatal accident.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 08:22 
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dcbwhaley wrote:
Quote:
"Pedestrian failed too look properly" - oh that must be driving speed related - right?!?

A perfect example. Pedestrian steps into the road in front of a car doing 20mph and car can stop without hitting him. Same car doing 150mph - fatal accident.


Nope, the pedestrian stepped out too close to the car, the driver of the 20mph car had no time to stop and knocked the ped down. He died when his head hit the kerb. The faster car however was long past before the ped even stepped off the kerb.

Claiming speed as a factor in every collision is like claiming car ownership is. People being born is a factor in every single death, let's ban people from having children, we'd see the death rate at zero within a hundred years or so.

Claiming that slower is always safer is not only nonsense, but it leads back to the red flag act. The safest portion of drivers choose the 85th %ile speed in otherwise free flowing conditions, the slower drivers are less safe. It's not all about physics of collisions.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 08:52 
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RobinXe wrote:
Nope, the pedestrian stepped out too close to the car, the driver of the 20mph car had no time to stop and knocked the ped down. He died when his head hit the kerb. The faster car however was long past before the ped even stepped off the kerb.


Of course. I had forgotten that point. The faster you travel, the less time you are on the road, so the less potential for causing injury. SCPs should be prosecuting people for going slowly not quickly.

[/quote]Claiming speed as a factor in every collision is like claiming car ownership is. People being born is a factor in every single death, let's ban people from having children, we'd see the death rate at zero within a hundred years or so. [/quote]
If that is your line of reasoning, coming out of the Ocean is the reason for all accidents. In practice you can only trace a chain of consequences a limited distance before the argument becomes meaningless.

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The safest portion of drivers choose the 85th %ile speed in otherwise free flowing conditions.

Nonsense. Drivers don't do a statistical survey of the speed distributions on their route before selecting their speed. Most of them have probably never heard of the 85th percentile. If you chose to visit me could you tell me what the 85th percentile is on the road from the village to my house.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 09:11 
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RobinXe wrote:
It's not all about physics of collisions.

It's actually more about the psychology of driver's perception than physiscs.

DCB wrote:
Drivers don't do a statistical survey of the speed distributions on their route before selecting their speed. Most of them have probably never heard of the 85th percentile.

They don't need to know the actual speed or to have heard about statistical analysis. All they need to do is what the vast majority (statistical population) do every day and drive at their perceived "correct" speed for the road and the hazard density which is apparent.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 09:14 
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Quite! With the best will in the world dcb, I suggest you research the 85th %ile rule before you make yourself look foolish.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 09:41 
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dcbwhaley wrote:
Steve wrote:
Weepej, some of those simply don't follow - you're clearly trying desperately to blame everything on one factor.Why do you so steadfastly assume 'speed' when there are other factors causing these, such as: fatigue, or impairment, or distraction, or bad road layout, or inconsiderateness, or pig ignorance, etc - or are all these caused by speed too :roll:


My reading of Weeps posts doesn't see him trying to blame every accident on speed. He is making a very valid point that all those other factors are exacerbated by higher speeds.

That only applies to the effect of the impact, but it doesn't address the cause (and hence probability of impact):
Fatigue - onset is reduced
Respect for law - increased predictability
Higher speeds for faster roads - displacement to safer roads
Let's not forget basic 'risk homeostasis'.

I say again: weepej is making points that are valid only when taken in isolation and don't necessarily apply in the real world.

dcbwhaley wrote:
Quote:
"Pedestrian failed too look properly" - oh that must be driving speed related - right?!?

A perfect example. Pedestrian steps into the road in front of a car doing 20mph and car can stop without hitting him. Same car doing 150mph - fatal accident.

That doesn't address my point. "Pedestrian failed to look properly" has nothing to do with any other road user or contributory factor, it is a self-supporting contributory factor.
Added to that: 'pedestrian more likely to take the time to look properly when trying to cross the same road if it has a higher speed limit' - so which effect wins?

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 09:46 
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RobinXe wrote:
Nope, the pedestrian stepped out too close to the car, the driver of the 20mph car had no time to stop and knocked the ped down. He died when his head hit the kerb. The faster car however was long past before the ped even stepped off the kerb.

:shock: Was that a joke? Or could it have been wored better?
DCB tried to interpret that comment in the best light - and it was still quite dark.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 09:58 
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RobinXe wrote:
Quite! With the best will in the world dcb, I suggest you research the 85th %ile rule before you make yourself look foolish.


I have, elsewhere, asked you for some help on that

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 10:09 
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I have, elsewhere, directed you to the wealth of information on the main site.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 10:21 
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RobinXe wrote:
I have, elsewhere, directed you to the wealth of information on the main site.

Thank you.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 14:22 
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weepej wrote:
Johnnytheboy wrote:
7.3% of accidents have excessive speed as a factor.



You quote that as if it an actual figure, it's not, it's a figure derived from misuse of statistical data.

Where your definition of "misuse of statistical data" is "data that weepj doesn't like" I guess.

:roll:


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