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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 08:13 
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Oh and weepej, before you start crowing about anyone else avoiding difficult questions I suggest you go back and address some of your own.

I say old fellow, there appears to be a plank in your eye!

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 09:31 
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weepej wrote:
dcbwhaley wrote:
So there is greater onus for on the denier of that statement than on its proponent to prove their case.


Exit Steve, botach, Pete317, RobinXE ,stage ( left or right - cant remember which they choose last) to ignore the request .


Either that or we end up playing top trumps with various links to statistics.

You're trying to be clever again, pity all this has already been addressed - which was something you had already evaded.

Point me to a study that adequately accounts for those confounding factors, or accept you cannot prove your link. No amount of tu quoque will give you a valid argument.
“top trumps”? You don’t even have any cards!

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 11:31 
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Well said Robin. :)
I wonder if Brake will lose their funding ? Or will RSS or RoadSafeGB continue to fund them ....

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 14:17 
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weepej wrote:
Johnnytheboy wrote:
Oh yes, I forgot, it's a different "environment".



Yes you did.

You can't compare motorways with urban high streets as far as pedestrian casualties goes I'm afraid, unless you want to turn your local high street into a motorway.


No, but there's plenty of "local" (not sure why that word's in there) high streets that are carrying through traffic that should be on modern roads that haven't been built.

And if the through traffic was on faster roads it would be safer on both routes, as fast is safe.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 15:02 
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dcbwhaley wrote:
What is the scientific basis for the 85% rule?

http://www.safespeed.org.uk/speedlimits.html
Report : http://www.th.gov.bc.ca/publications/en ... Report.pdf
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/speeding.html
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/speed.html
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/rttm.html
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/roadsafety.html

and two more to ponder ...
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/rules001.pdf
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/bike.pdf

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 19:25 
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weepej wrote:
Either that or we end up playing top trumps with various links to statistics.


I don't play games with statistics - it's soooo easy to fool yourself and others with statistics.
Statistics are only really useful for serving to confirm what your hypothesis has already accurately predicted, or alternatively for forcing you to go back to the drawing board.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 19:34 
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dcbwhaley wrote:
It is not unreasonable, given the human physiology and the laws of physics, to think that, in the abstract, higher speeds (in the same environment) would result in a higher risk of accident and injury


No, it's not unreasonable to think that, however there's more to it than meets the eye, and it's not quite as straightforward as people may think.
The trouble I have with most research papers I've seen is that their conclusions (eg "a 1mph reduction in average speeds leads to a 5% reduction in accidents") are not (and cannot be) backed up by any physics-based mechanism, and are merely derived from statistics. As I just said to weepej, it's soooo easy to fool yourself and others with statistics (even if you're not trying to)

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 23:48 
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dcbwhaley wrote:
What is the scientific basis for the 85% rule?


Not scientific but consider the A515 limit reduction (now 18 miles of 50mph) of a couple of years ago, and section 34 in a document I download from the DCC website:

Quote:
Derbyshire County Council
Meeting of Cabinet Member – Environmental Services
13 September 2007
Report of the Strategic Director – Environmental Services
Speed Limit Review – A515 Buxton to Sudbury

Section 34 reads in its entirety:
'The Police, whilst being generally supportive of the changes, have expressed reservations about the proposal to introduce a 50mph limit between Buxton and Sudbury as they feel the road has long straight sections with good forward views and that the route can be driven quite safely. It is mentioned that imposing a lower limit may lead to driver frustration and could actually lead to more, not fewer, collisions. They also consider that speed surveys conducted along the length reveal a good level of compliance with the derestricted limits. It is also a particular concern that wholesale changes to generally reduce speed limits will create a considerable enforcement problem in Derbyshire and it may be difficult to sustain the existing level of enforcement. In view of this, they take the view that additional engineering measures on the long straight sections would be essential to try to ensure any lower limits are more self-enforcing and therefore reduce the need for a regular Police presence. They also feel that the lower limits should not be introduced solely to solve the problems at isolated hazards and pointout that over recent months the County Council has recently done much to improve safety at numerous locations along the A515.'


That's the 85% percentile without recourse to maths or science :bighand:

As an asides I love the first sentence which, given the document is about the speed limit changes has the police both generally supportive and expressing reservations about the same thing :scratchchin:

Chris

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