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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Sat Jul 16, 2011 23:48 
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camera operator wrote:
but the links above show 2 accidents in or around the same location on two consecutive days, i initially thought the location was a very nasty stetch of the M5 where the outside lane lane merges with the third lane very suddenly, no advance warning due to the split level nature of the road, but google mapping shows the location to be a very flat straight section of motorway


That might qualify that site as a genuine blackspot - for which it seems there is an engineering solution.

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Sat Jul 16, 2011 23:56 
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Pete317 wrote:
camera operator wrote:
but the links above show 2 accidents in or around the same location on two consecutive days, i initially thought the location was a very nasty stetch of the M5 where the outside lane lane merges with the third lane very suddenly, no advance warning due to the split level nature of the road, but google mapping shows the location to be a very flat straight section of motorway


That might qualify that site as a genuine blackspot - for which it seems there is an engineering solution.


for the area i initially thought was M5 northbound 23 -22, theres a 4 lane stetch ie, inside lane crawler but at the merge point lane 4 to 3 merge rather than 1-2, an easy solution to repair IMO

but 23 -22 is straight and flat, i dont have any idea how a multi car pile up occured on two days

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 00:04 
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camera operator wrote:
thought as much, pretty pointless in posting it then :lol:


That was as an attempt to explain misconceptions about RTTM to someone. Have you never used a hypothetical situation as an example to explain something?

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 00:05 
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Pete317 wrote:
camera operator wrote:
thought as much, pretty pointless in posting it then :lol:


That was as an attempt to explain misconceptions about RTTM to someone. Have you never used a hypothetical situation as an example to explain something?


i have yes, but then get accused of tangents and unsustainable comments

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 00:07 
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camera operator wrote:
for the area i initially thought was M5 northbound 23 -22, theres a 4 lane stetch ie, inside lane crawler but at the merge point lane 4 to 3 merge rather than 1-2, an easy solution to repair IMO

but 23 -22 is straight and flat, i dont have any idea how a multi car pile up occured on two days


Can you provide a Google maps link?

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 00:09 
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Pete317 wrote:
camera operator wrote:
for the area i initially thought was M5 northbound 23 -22, theres a 4 lane stetch ie, inside lane crawler but at the merge point lane 4 to 3 merge rather than 1-2, an easy solution to repair IMO

but 23 -22 is straight and flat, i dont have any idea how a multi car pile up occured on two days


Can you provide a Google maps link?


for the merge point, i will look it is around the south bristol area

[url]<iframe width="425" height="350" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" src="http://maps.google.co.uk/?ie=UTF8&amp;ll=51.455566,-2.771312&amp;spn=0.000799,0.001725&amp;z=19&amp;layer=c&amp;cbll=51.455566,-2.771312&amp;panoid=UyT5qPnbIK9EAYTi1cHBwg&amp;cbp=12,81.03,,0,0&amp;source=embed&amp;output=svembed"></iframe><br /><small><a href="http://maps.google.co.uk/?ie=UTF8&amp;ll=51.455566,-2.771312&amp;spn=0.000799,0.001725&amp;z=19&amp;layer=c&amp;cbll=51.455566,-2.771312&amp;panoid=UyT5qPnbIK9EAYTi1cHBwg&amp;cbp=12,81.03,,0,0&amp;source=embed" style="color:#0000FF;text-align:left">View Larger Map</a></small>[/url]

the road layout is different since the google sweep, the hard shoulder from memory is now a crawler lane, just at the end of the wall section lane 4 merges with lane 3

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 00:32 
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camera operator wrote:
but the links above show 2 accidents in or around the same location on two consecutive days, i initially thought the location was a very nasty stetch of the M5 where the outside lane lane merges with the third lane very suddenly, no advance warning due to the split level nature of the road, but google mapping shows the location to be a very flat straight section of motorway

Two things:
1) It is 9km between the two junctions, a bit bigger than what is considered a speed camera site (the two accidents could have occurred at what would be considered different sites),
2) A spokesman for Avon and Somerset Police said: "At this stage the police are not aware of anyone having been seriously injured."
The RTTM analysis was done for KSI accidents. Therefore, your examples do not apply.

Injury only accidents are about 10x more prevalent than KSI accidents; non-injury accidents are about 10x more prevalent than injury only ones. These kinds of accidents (that you linked) are greatly less prone to the RTTM effect because they are a relatively much more frequent occurrence (will expect to get a fair few in any 3 year time-frame).
Your examples do not cast any doubt on the validity of RTTM. Nice try though!


You cannot argue against RTTM; it is proven and quantified by people far smarter at maths than us, no matter how much you try to cherry-pick.


PS: your URL doesn't work, and I don't know how to fix it. You seem to have given html instead of a link.

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 00:47 
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Steve wrote:
camera operator wrote:
but the links above show 2 accidents in or around the same location on two consecutive days, i initially thought the location was a very nasty stetch of the M5 where the outside lane lane merges with the third lane very suddenly, no advance warning due to the split level nature of the road, but google mapping shows the location to be a very flat straight section of motorway

Two things:
1) It is 9km between the two junctions, a bit bigger than what is considered a speed camera site,
2) A spokesman for Avon and Somerset Police said: "At this stage the police are not aware of anyone having been seriously injured."
The RTTM analysis was done for KSI accidents.



1. i know when i left there were rumours of extending DC and motorway sites, if anything came of it i dont know, but this area does not have any form of cameras, well i did not have a few years back


2. yet Devon and Somerset fire service took
Quote:
Date: 15/07/2011
Time: 13:11

The Fire Service were called to a report of a RTC involving 3 vehicles on the M5 Northbound. Upon arrival crews confirmed this to be a 7 vehicle RTC, and believed to be 2 persons trapped in one vehicle. Crews confirmed that the motorway was completely blocked, fire crews on scene requested a further appliances to assist with crew safety.

Crews got to work to remove roof of one of the vehicles, 1 casualty was released by long board and in the care of ambulance crews, fire crews now assisting with extrication of one more casualty, final casualty was removed at 1359hrs and in the hands of ambulance crews.

.


Quote:
Date: 16/07/2011
Time: 12:35

The Fire Service were called to reports of a three vehicle RTC in lanes 2 and 3, with one person trapped within one vehicle. Crews got to work setting up equipment and preparting to remove the roof, six adult casualties and one infant casualty were involved in this incident, crews assisted paramedics on scene. At 1327 all casualties were released and in hands of ambulance crews on scene, crews made vehicle safe and duty of care left with highways and police.


maybe they like cutting cars up for the fun of it

Quote:
The RTTM analysis was done for KSI accidents.

Injury only accidents are about 10x more prevalent than KSI accidents, and non-injury accidents are about 10x more prevalent again. These kinds of accidents (that you linked) are far less prone to the RTTM effect because they are a relatively frequent occurrence. Your examples does not cast any doubt on the validity of RTTM. Nice try!


i would say slight PI have soared due to the no win no fee culture, so what is prone to the RTTM effect only SCP camera sites no doubt

Quote:
You cannot argue against RTTM, it is proven and quantified by people far smarter at maths than us, no matter how much you try to cherry-pick.


and who are they?

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 01:02 
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camera operator wrote:
Steve wrote:
1) It is 9km between the two junctions, a bit bigger than what is considered a speed camera site,

1. i know when i left there were rumours of extending DC and motorway sites, if anything came of it i dont know, but this area does not have any form of cameras, well i did not have a few years back

So you take my point?

camera operator wrote:
Steve wrote:
2) A spokesman for Avon and Somerset Police said: "At this stage the police are not aware of anyone having been seriously injured."
The RTTM analysis was done for KSI accidents.


Quote:
Crews got to work to remove roof of one of the vehicles, 1 casualty was released by long board and in the care of ambulance crews, fire crews now assisting with extrication of one more casualty, final casualty was removed at 1359hrs and in the hands of ambulance crews.

Crews got to work setting up equipment and preparting to remove the roof, six adult casualties and one infant casualty were involved in this incident, crews assisted paramedics on scene. At 1327 all casualties were released and in hands of ambulance crews on scene,

maybe they like cutting cars up for the fun of it

Maybe it was the only way to get to the occupants? :roll:

Maybe it was the quickest way to clear the closure?

Evidently, "casualty" can also mean hurt or injured, not necessarily KSI.

camera operator wrote:
Steve wrote:
You cannot argue against RTTM, it is proven and quantified by people far smarter at maths than us, no matter how much you try to cherry-pick.

and who are they?

Come on cam op. I thought you had "read it twice" ?! :roll: It is starting to look like you are in denial. Seriously mate, your answer is stated 18, yes eighteen, times in the document. Read it properly!

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 13:14 
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GreenShed wrote:
The mean after treatment is now much lower than the mean before treatment and below the long term trend at most fixed sites.


Substantiate or withdraw please.

When the mean prior to treatment was virtually zero, how can a statistically significant improvement be claimed?

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 18:47 
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Steve wrote:


Come on cam op. I thought you had "read it twice" ?! :roll: It is starting to look like you are in denial. Seriously mate, your answer is stated 18, yes eighteen, times in the document. Read it properly!


it appears to me, its others who like to cherry pick, if the DFT shouted speed kills, you shout no, if DFT shout dont use phones you shout why not, if DFT say cameras are acruate you shout no they are not, if DFT whispers RTTM you grasp and milk it into something it is not

a grain of sand does not make a beach :scratchchin: :scratchchin:

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 19:33 
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Don't think I didn't notice your continued evasion (and attempt at distraction).

camera operator wrote:
... acruate ...

:D

camera operator wrote:
if DFT whispers RTTM you grasp and milk it into something it is not

Prove your claim, or paint yourself as you have accused others!

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 19:39 
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RobinXe wrote:
GreenShed wrote:
The mean after treatment is now much lower than the mean before treatment and below the long term trend at most fixed sites.


Substantiate or withdraw please.

When the mean prior to treatment was virtually zero, how can a statistically significant improvement be claimed?

Or RTTM?

Where do permanent fixed cameras get fitted where there has been no high level of KSI Collisions? Excluding HADECS and Road Works of course.


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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 19:40 
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camera operator wrote:
Steve wrote:


Come on cam op. I thought you had "read it twice" ?! :roll: It is starting to look like you are in denial. Seriously mate, your answer is stated 18, yes eighteen, times in the document. Read it properly!


it appears to me, its others who like to cherry pick, if the DFT shouted speed kills, you shout no, if DFT shout dont use phones you shout why not, if DFT say cameras are acruate you shout no they are not, if DFT whispers RTTM you grasp and milk it into something it is not

a grain of sand does not make a beach :scratchchin: :scratchchin:

Data Dredging if rife here and that's no mistake.


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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 20:21 
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GreenShed wrote:
RobinXe wrote:
GreenShed wrote:
The mean after treatment is now much lower than the mean before treatment and below the long term trend at most fixed sites.


Substantiate or withdraw please.


[no substance]

Data dodging is rife with you and that's no mistake!

Face it, SCPs have been, and still are, grossly misrepresenting the effectiveness of speed cameras. This is proven. Despite your attempts, you have outright failed to counter it.

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 21:20 
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Steve wrote:
GreenShed wrote:
RobinXe wrote:
GreenShed wrote:
The mean after treatment is now much lower than the mean before treatment and below the long term trend at most fixed sites.


Substantiate or withdraw please.


[no substance]

Data dodging is rife with you and that's no mistake!

Face it, SCPs have been, and still are, grossly misrepresenting the effectiveness of speed cameras. This is proven. Despite your attempts, you have outright failed to counter it.

...in your overblown opinion of course. How can one convince the oracular Steve? You can't.
You are disputatious and not worth arguing with as such your opinion is rather worthless, especially as you seem to make most of your 'facts' up and reject those of others.
You answer every issue on road safety with apparent authority, yet have none. What is amusing is your toady followers.


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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 21:55 
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GreenShed wrote:
...in your overblown opinion of course. How can one convince the oracular Steve? You can't.
You are disputatious and not worth arguing with as such your opinion is rather worthless, especially as you seem to make most of your 'facts' up and reject those of others.
You answer every issue on road safety with apparent authority, yet have none. What is amusing is your toady followers.

Enough about you, Mr C :D

RTTM is proven (yes it is fact, thank you very much appendix H) - and you don't like it!

You cannot prove that cameras have any positive benefit when considering really obvious confounding factors. Yet again that simple argument confounds you - and you really don't like that!

Instead of countering the points of discussion, you respond with desperate personal attacks. For example: who are my 'followers'? Show to the casual reader why they are my 'followers'. I bet you can't.

I so love that those who are professionally affiliated with, and even benefit from, camera enforcement are usually those who try to disguise their lack of straightforward answers with obvious evasion. I'm happy to continue responding to you while you mistakenly believe your behaviour on these forums is a credit to your profession :D

I will always keep reminding everyone about RTTM and BOS, no matter how 'boring and dated' some people (especially those with a demonstrable conflict of interest) try to misrepresent it.

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 22:55 
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GreenShed wrote:
What is amusing is your toady followers.


And who would they be?

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 23:20 
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Quote:
y :

GreenShed wrote:The mean after treatment is now much lower than the mean before treatment and below the long term trend at most fixed sites.



Substantiate or withdraw please.

When the mean prior to treatment was virtually zero, how can a statistically significant improvement be claimed?


Or RTTM?

Where do permanent fixed cameras get fitted where there has been no high level of KSI Collisions? Excluding HADECS and Road Works of course.


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You REALLY don't know the definition of the "mean" level do you ? What Qualifications did you need for that job? (CSE Maths obviously wasn't one of them)

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 Post subject: Re: interesting reading
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 23:26 
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Greenshed, Would this also explain your previously ridiculous claim, that the MEAN speeds on rural NSLs is often in excess of 60MPH?

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My views do not represent Safespeed but those of a driver who has driven for 39 yrs, in all conditions, at all times of the day & night on every type of road and covered well over a million miles, so knows a bit about what makes for safety on the road,what is really dangerous and needs to be observed when driving and quite frankly, the speedo is way down on my list of things to observe to negotiate Britain's roads safely, but I don't expect some fool who sits behind a desk all day to appreciate that.


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