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PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 02:24 
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gpmgroup wrote:
Hmmmm.....

3 Million a year... Now given points hang around for 3 years

Thats 9 Million sets of points to distribute. It is highly unlikely that they will be distributed evenly. So say it takes 3 sets on average to get banned 1 in 10 get 2 lots and 1 in 10 of those get 3 lots. (1%)

Thats 90,000 bans falling due every year.
I wonder how many of those will drive and have no insurance?


You're not alone in doing those sums. But latest figures only indicate about 30,000 bans a year. The camera proponents held up this disparity as evidence that people were changing their speeding behaviour, but The Times pointed out that hundreds of thousands of people were likely to be 'points sharing' with family members.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 09:57 
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stevei wrote:
So, if people are going to speed and want to minimise the risk to their welfare, IMO it makes sense to make speed enforcement the number one hazard in your mind, as it poses the greatest risk to you.


That's only if that change in priorities is not going to have a significant effect on accident risk.
But there's potential for it to increase accident risk humungously - and I believe that this has already started happening.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 09:59 
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It's definately 'points-sharing', Paul
I don't want to post details on here, but it has happened twice within my network of family and friends within the last year.
Then there are those who are so completely 'p****d-off' by the stupidity of it all that they continue to drive whilst banned because the alternative is too onerous to contemplate (loss of job, career, home, lifestyle, marriage maybe and children without holidays and the things their friends have). This is happening to very safe drivers who have just been unlucky and/or who drive huge mileages for their work.
Consider this. A high mileage driver may pass as many as 200 cash-cameras each week. That's 10,000 per annum. If he/she gets caught about once a year a ban will result by the end of the 3rd year. So, the allowable error in keeping absolutely to the speed limit past must be no greater than 0.01%. In other words I must be spot-on for 99.99%. In real terms that's crazy. In what other profession would an error rate of 0.01% cause loss of job?
Many have preached the 'I would never drive whilst disqualified', until, that is, they are faced with the reality of telling their boss that they are banned, handing back the company car and getting their new vehicle - the P45GTi. Why not just keep quiet about it. After all, it's a company registered vehicle and there is not much liklihood of getting stopped by a manned patrol. An ANPR check will reveal a taxed and insured company car, installation of a Road Angel will minimise the risk.
I'm NOT advocating DWD, I'm just explaining the thinking behind some of it and the way in which this cash-collection technology is causing some responsible family men and women to DWD.
It's sad really, but understandable in the real world.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 10:53 
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http://www.insidebikes.com/news/archives_2000/news_details.asp?id=4059

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Issued by the Safe Speed press office Three cases reported this week indicate damaging bias in court sentences in speeding cases


Nice one....... :wink:

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 17:17 
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 18:00 
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I think the assumption that the points are not being evenly distributed is a bad one.

I think in most cases they are, with the exception of a high risk group.

My arguement is as follows:

+ The vast majority of people speed (more than admit or are aware of it). And as we know even those who don't frequently get prosecuted. so there is around 20M people who could get caught every day.
+ Enforcement focuses on the roads where speeding is safe and common.
+ People do normally slow down after a conviction even if it's just for 2 months. thus reducing their chances of being caught again.
+ Even when they don't slow down they change their behaviour scanning bridges and hedges, GPS, 'garrage door' openner, obfuscated plates etc. (I know lots of mature upstanding people with the full works of counter measures).
+ DFT reports show that people aren't slowing down (maybe 2%) overall (10% of drivers per year being affected)

this all suggests a random allocation.

However,

High mileage, professional and company drivers are at the highest risk becasue they travel on unfamiliar roads and have high exposure times. These drivers typically have the lowest accident per vkm ratio.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 18:20 
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I'll do about 40,000 miles this year. I was snapped in Sept and again in May (the second one was particularly annoying and close to entrapment)

In the previous 2 years I did about 36,000 total and my car was snapped once(although reasonable dilligence did not allow for identification of the driver)

The figures speak for themselves.

I have no idea how I can continue driving the miles I do and keep a licence.

Before some clever sod gives me chapter and verse about not exceeding the limit is the only way to not get caught, the two times I was flashed this year I had no reason to suspect I had been exceeding the posted limit. (both unfamiliar roads with 'unusual' limits)


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 22:28 
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civil engineer wrote:
Before some clever sod gives me chapter and verse about not exceeding the limit is the only way to not get caught, the two times I was flashed this year I had no reason to suspect I had been exceeding the posted limit. (both unfamiliar roads with 'unusual' limits)

I sympathise greatly with your difficulty in knowing what the speed limit is on unfamiliar roads, it really can be very difficult, and the concept of a "zone" as opposed to a "limit" really doesn't help, as if you miss the sign on entry to a zone, you've missed your one and only chance to know what the limit is.

Is there any software available for a Pocket PC, e.g. an add-in to TomTom, that will give you a nice readout of the current speed limit via GPS on the screen in big numbers? I'd have thought something that displays what the current speed limit is at all times would be hugely beneficial to someone like you.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 14, 2005 11:22 
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stevei wrote:
To me, this illustrates perfectly the problems with relying on discretion. Different people will always have different views of what constitutes "common sense", leading inevitably to cases like this where people compare decisions made by different people and complain that it's unfair. The system has to either be:
- discretion leading to random and arbitrary decisions, or
- fixed and unwielding so you always know where you are
Neither approach will make everyone happy.


Do a few control checks when we pull - but generally lads have already decided within first two seconds just what action they'll take - but would not say our discretion led to random/arbitrary decisions - actually well considered decision based on actual.

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