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 Post subject: Al Gullon
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:02 
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I had an email earlier this morning from Al Gullon, the author of this web site:

http://www.alsaces.ca/

He seems to think that (virtually) all crashes are caused by lack of attention/concentration. I don't find his writing style easy. Any comments?

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 Post subject: Re: Al Gullon
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:14 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
He seems to think that (virtually) all crashes are caused by lack of attention/concentration. I don't find his writing style easy. Any comments?

aren't most crashes caused by tailgating - ie aren't the majority of crashes rear-enders? Or is tailgating being redefined as lack of attention now?


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 Post subject: Re: Al Gullon
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:22 
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johnsher wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
He seems to think that (virtually) all crashes are caused by lack of attention/concentration. I don't find his writing style easy. Any comments?

aren't most crashes caused by tailgating - ie aren't the majority of crashes rear-enders? Or is tailgating being redefined as lack of attention now?


Certainly 'shunts' are the most common crash type on motorways. How many are caused by tailgating and how many are caused by inattention, I really don't know.

You're right to highlight the 'definition problem' - it can be very misleading to attribute crash causation if you pick the wrong layer in the contribution hierarchy. I'm fond of staying near the top of the causation hierarchy and blaming crashes on shortfalls in "skills, attitudes and responsibilities". If we work on those the benefits ripple down nicely.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:43 
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Interesting bastardisation of a fine quote by Nevil Shute. IIRC the original was "An engineer is someone who can do for ten bob what any bloody fool can do for a quid".

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 Post subject: Re: Al Gullon
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 13:20 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
He seems to think that (virtually) all crashes are caused by lack of attention/concentration. I don't find his writing style easy. Any comments?


At the most basic level, that is almost axiomatic. Nobody sets out to have a crash therefore any crash must be caused by (a degree of) inattention. Driving too fast for the conditions is a symptom of inattention (e.g. failing to read the severity of a bend or a low adhesion road surface); as is a rear end shunt (failing to observe what's happening ahead); as is T-boning a car emerging from a minor road (inattention of both parties, possibly). I can't think of any actual or hypothetical crash situation (other than mechanical failure) which does not have inattention at its root or, put another way, which could not have been prevented by adequate attention.


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 Post subject: Re: Al Gullon
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 13:27 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
How many are caused by tailgating and how many are caused by inattention, I really don't know.


Tailgating cannot be the cause of a crash. It can be (and no doubt often is) the reason why a crash is not avoided. It is perfectly possibly to tailgate without crashing but to do so demands a high degree of attention/concentration that cannot be sustained for more than a relatively short period. When the attention/concentration level drops (as it nearly always will), the proximity of the vehicle ahead represents an inadequate safety margin that allows insufficient 'time to react'.


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 Post subject: Re: Al Gullon
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 14:11 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
johnsher wrote:
aren't most crashes caused by tailgating - ie aren't the majority of crashes rear-enders? Or is tailgating being redefined as lack of attention now?

Certainly 'shunts' are the most common crash type on motorways. How many are caused by tailgating and how many are caused by inattention, I really don't know.

I would have thought that, overall, misjudgment or lack of observation at junctions was the single biggest cause of crashes. On single-carriageway roads, rear-end shunts are (I would think) relatively insignificant as a type of serious crash.

Also on motorways another common crash type (and one that causes many of the more serious crashes) is misjudgment when changing lanes - for example the very severe one on the M56 near Manchester Airport a few years ago involving a hotel minibus.

In general, "virtually all crashes are caused by inattention" is such a statement of the bleeding obvious that it isn't really very useful as a means of understanding how crashes happen or what can be done to avoid them.

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 Post subject: Re: Al Gullon
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 18:46 
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Observer wrote:
Tailgating cannot be the cause of a crash. It can be (and no doubt often is) the reason why a crash is not avoided. It is perfectly possibly to tailgate without crashing but to do so demands a high degree of attention/concentration that cannot be sustained for more than a relatively short period. When the attention/concentration level drops (as it nearly always will), the proximity of the vehicle ahead represents an inadequate safety margin that allows insufficient 'time to react'.


On the other side of the coin, you get the numpties who open up a huge gap, eg five seconds, and, as they have such a large stretch of emptiness ahead of them, they feel detached, safe and 'switch off' - and start admiring the scenery instead of watching the road.
Problem is, if they take their eyes off the road for more than five seconds just at the wrong time (which is not an uncommon occurrence) then they're going to pile into the now stationary traffic ahead at full speed.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 20:50 
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I think Observer has summed it up pretty well as I would see it.
Inattention in many different forms would sum up the cause of most incidents. However the OUTCOMES are influenced by something different.

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