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PostPosted: Sat Mar 04, 2006 23:29 
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PeterE wrote:
ndp wrote:
PeterE wrote:
From Simonet & Wilde on risk homeostasis:
.
.
.
Quoted some time ago by "teabelly", don't have original reference - search for his post.

But thats all expectation - what has actually happened?

It just shows that it's a recognised behavioural phenomenon.

Granted - but thats it.

Quote:
And it does seem to accord with common sense, in that if you're forced to do something more slowly than you would otherwise choose to do so, your level of performance is unlikely to improve and may even deteriorate.


Insert your own Albert Einstein quote here :)

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ndp wrote:
PeterE wrote:
How do you define "too fast"?

Too fast being that their speed presents an unacceptable risk of an accident occuring and/or that the consequences of an accident occuring are unacceptably high.

Are there really many roads like that, where there is an unusually high proportion of accidents that can be attributed to excess speed?


There are a proportion of accident clusters where that is the case.

Given we are talking site specific issue - whats the relevance of it is many roads or not?

Quote:
The fact that the 85th percentile speed is well above the speed limit does not in itself mean that it's dangerous.


Indeed

Quote:
Also bear in mind that speed limits are set in large increments of 10 mph. Even if they're set properly, there will be 30 limits which would get limits of 36 or 37 mph if they were done in 1 mph increments.


Or 25 or 26.......

And I suggest where 36 or 37 would be an appropriate speed, 40 would be an appropriate limit (it is after all a limit, not a target).

Quote:
If the 85th percentile speed is around that level then in reality it might not cause any kind of problem and the best solution is simply to leave well alone.


Indeed. But what if it is causing a problem?

Quote:
Most speed enforcement occurs where speeding is least dangerous.


And you base this on what?

Maybe the fact people perceive speeding to be least dangerous on these sections of road is why people are coming to grief by driving too fast? (if that is happening)


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 04, 2006 23:31 
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basingwerk wrote:
As for the "engineering changes to the road", I have no problem with narrowing roads with stout iron or concrete bollards, as they have done in London. These are far scarier to perps than road humps, and many of them have lots of paint on them, showing that they creating employment in bodyshops!


This is a good point.

When roads are re-engineered to reduce the perceived safe speed - Safe Speeders moan about it!


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2006 00:22 
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ndp wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
ndp wrote:
And what do you do if a significant proportion of drivers are simply driving too fast?

Too fast for what?

Apologies for missing this - but it happens I answered this when Peter asked this:

Too fast being that their speed presents an unacceptable risk of an accident occuring and/or that the consequences of an accident occuring are unacceptably high


That's inappropriate speed then. Nothing to do with the speed limit.

ndp wrote:
Quote:
Quote:
What's a significant proportion? More than 10%?


Does it necessarily have to be that many?

Accidents are rare and random. The failures that lead up to them are also rare and random (if less so).


That would depend on the site and the other circumstances. There isn't a blanket answer.


If it's more than ~10% then EITHER a) Something in the environment misleads OR b) There's some local skew of the driver population.

If it's less than ~10% then you need to reach the drivers with the skills or attitude problems.

ndp wrote:
Quote:
Answers to my questions are needed.


Until you answer my concerns regarding your analysis of 20mph zones, speed cameras in roadworks and reductions in fatalities on the continent, you are in no position to criticise in that regard.


I gave you fair (albeit brief) answers. I wasn't very happy with your attitude at the time. If you come here in a spirit of discovery you'll find that many (including me) are prepared to discuss such issues in microscopic detail.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2006 00:34 
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ndp wrote:
PeterE wrote:
Most speed enforcement occurs where speeding is least dangerous.


And you base this on what?


Study this: http://www.safespeed.org.uk/rules.html

ndp wrote:
Maybe the fact people perceive speeding to be least dangerous on these sections of road is why people are coming to grief by driving too fast? (if that is happening)


Nope. It isn't happening. At least not in any normal places.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2006 00:43 
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ndp wrote:
PeterE wrote:
Are there really many roads like that, where there is an unusually high proportion of accidents that can be attributed to excess speed?

There are a proportion of accident clusters where that is the case.

Given we are talking site specific issue - whats the relevance of it is many roads or not?

Yes, but once again you have implied something is general and then later acknowledged it is relatively infrequent. Of course such places exist, but that can't be said of the typical suburban main road with a 30 limit and an 85th percentile in the mid to high 30s.

ndp wrote:
PeterE wrote:
Also bear in mind that speed limits are set in large increments of 10 mph. Even if they're set properly, there will be 30 limits which would get limits of 36 or 37 mph if they were done in 1 mph increments.

And I suggest where 36 or 37 would be an appropriate speed, 40 would be an appropriate limit (it is after all a limit, not a target).

Yes, but that is so rarely done nowadays, is it? And IIRC some official guidelines recommend rounding down from around 37.

ndp wrote:
PeterE wrote:
If the 85th percentile speed is around that level then in reality it might not cause any kind of problem and the best solution is simply to leave well alone.

Indeed. But what if it is causing a problem?

Well, if it really is causing a problem then a camera might be a sensible solution. I have said before that I can see a limited role for high-vis fixed cameras in locations where the road appearance is genuinely out of line with the maximum safe speed.

ndp wrote:
PeterE wrote:
Most speed enforcement occurs where speeding is least dangerous.

And you base this on what?

I drive around a lot. I see plenty of Gatsos and Talivans situated on the widest, straightest, least developed portions of roads. I see very few on shopping streets or outside schools. Are you saying that speeding is less dangerous on shopping streets and outside schools?

And Paul has of course done a webpage on the subject:

http://www.safespeed.org.uk/rules.html

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2006 01:27 
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ndp wrote:
Pete317 wrote:
ndp wrote:
All else being equal, the faster you go , the less time you have to react to hazards ahead and the less able you are to take controlled evasive action


Fine. Can you now put some figures to that?


Not at this time of night :)


Are we going to continue this discussion sometime?

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2006 09:02 
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ndp wrote:
T2006 wrote:
It is important to remove bias or hidden agenda when evaluating effectiveness of a speed camera or SCP. Surely you agree with that?


Of course.

How do we propose we do that?



A good start would be to stop SCPs from analysing their "own" statisics and reviewing their "own" performance.

Another step would be to give the raw data to an independent statistician. (yes, professionals can be independent and unbiased - trust me they're out there!)

Another step would be to stop using misleading KSI figures. Why not publish the two separately?

Another step would be to release raw accident causation statistics, making them freely available to all.

(Of couse, SCPs are not going to ever release such statistics unless they are forced to. Why would any £multi-million busness deliberately shoot itself in the foot?)


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2006 10:41 
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T2006 wrote:
Another step would be to release raw accident causation statistics, making them freely available to all.


To my mind, their extreme reluctance to divulge this information, in itself, speaks volumes.
If they were on the level, this information would, at the very least, silence the critics.
Why aren't they shouting this from the rooftops?

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2006 11:53 
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Pete317 wrote:
T2006 wrote:
Another step would be to release raw accident causation statistics, making them freely available to all.


Why aren't they shouting this from the rooftops?


Because it would undermine their very existence?


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2006 17:49 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
ndp wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
ndp wrote:
And what do you do if a significant proportion of drivers are simply driving too fast?

Too fast for what?

Apologies for missing this - but it happens I answered this when Peter asked this:

Too fast being that their speed presents an unacceptable risk of an accident occuring and/or that the consequences of an accident occuring are unacceptably high


That's inappropriate speed then. Nothing to do with the speed limit.


But we've been here before - surely the point of speed limits is to provide one mechanism to discourage inappropriate speed and deal with those who use speed inappropriately?

And of course, everyone has a different idea of acceptable risk - so we need to define what speed creates unacceptable risk so everyone knows where they stand.

Quote:
ndp wrote:
Quote:
Quote:
What's a significant proportion? More than 10%?


Does it necessarily have to be that many?

Accidents are rare and random. The failures that lead up to them are also rare and random (if less so).


That would depend on the site and the other circumstances. There isn't a blanket answer.


If it's more than ~10% then EITHER a) Something in the environment misleads OR b) There's some local skew of the driver population.


Why do you suggest the skew has to be local?

Quote:
If it's less than ~10% then you need to reach the drivers with the skills or attitude problems.


Perhaps by sending them on speed awareness courses?

Or disqualify them if they continually flout the law?

Quote:
ndp wrote:
Quote:
Answers to my questions are needed.


Until you answer my concerns regarding your analysis of 20mph zones, speed cameras in roadworks and reductions in fatalities on the continent, you are in no position to criticise in that regard.


I gave you fair (albeit brief) answers.


But you wouldn't expand on them when asked, for instance, w.r.t. your so-far-unevidenced claim that the Dutch fatality figures are somehow dodgy.

Quote:
I wasn't very happy with your attitude at the time.


I wasn't exactly on cloud 9 with yours.

Quote:
If you come here in a spirit of discovery you'll find that many (including me) are prepared to discuss such issues in microscopic detail.


Perhaps we could start now.

How does your analysis of the impact of speed cameras in road works take into account variations in the nature of and inflows into road works?


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2006 17:52 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
ndp wrote:
PeterE wrote:
Most speed enforcement occurs where speeding is least dangerous.


And you base this on what?


Study this: http://www.safespeed.org.uk/rules.html


We've done that one before.

Why exactly would speed cameras be needed if people are obeying the limit? What purpose would it serve?

Quote:
ndp wrote:
Maybe the fact people perceive speeding to be least dangerous on these sections of road is why people are coming to grief by driving too fast? (if that is happening)


Nope. It isn't happening. At least not in any normal places.


And you base this on what?


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2006 18:18 
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T2006 wrote:
ndp wrote:
T2006 wrote:
It is important to remove bias or hidden agenda when evaluating effectiveness of a speed camera or SCP. Surely you agree with that?


Of course.

How do we propose we do that?



A good start would be to stop SCPs from analysing their "own" statisics and reviewing their "own" performance.


Surely even if there was some sort of external auditing, SCPs should be able to evaluate their performance internally?

Quote:
Another step would be to give the raw data to an independent statistician. (yes, professionals can be independent and unbiased - trust me they're out there!)


But yet when the DfT does commission such a report (eg from PA Consulting Group and UCL) its simply derided ("well it was comissioned by the DfT, so it would say that")

So if the DfT cannot commission such an independant report, how is it to happen?

Quote:
Another step would be to stop using misleading KSI figures. Why not publish the two separately?


Because the random variation of fatal accidents is such that figures would fluctuate wildly, and thus the media and others would use these fluctuations to score points without considering this random variation.

Quote:
Another step would be to release raw accident causation statistics, making them freely available to all.


Of course, accident reports are not for SCPs to release.

Quote:
(Of couse, SCPs are not going to ever release such statistics unless they are forced to. Why would any £multi-million busness deliberately shoot itself in the foot?)


See above.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2006 18:34 
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ndp wrote:
But we've been here before - surely the point of speed limits is to provide one mechanism to discourage inappropriate speed and deal with those who use speed inappropriately?


Yes. But that only applies to a minority of drivers - mostly inexperienced ones.

The problem is that most cases of inappropriate speed are well within the speed limit so the limit is useless for those. And worse still, too much emphasis on the limit is INCREASING inappropriate speed within the limit as folk switch to using the limit to set their speed.

ndp wrote:
And of course, everyone has a different idea of acceptable risk - so we need to define what speed creates unacceptable risk so everyone knows where they stand.


Oh rubbish. There's no such 'external' defintion. Is 29mph safe?

ndp wrote:
But you wouldn't expand on them when asked, for instance, w.r.t. your so-far-unevidenced claim that the Dutch fatality figures are somehow dodgy.


That was hearsay and stated as such.

ndp wrote:
How does your analysis of the impact of speed cameras in road works take into account variations in the nature of and inflows into road works?


Have you read TRL595? That's the only possible starting point.

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The Safe Speed campaign demands a return to intelligent road safety


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2006 18:38 
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ndp wrote:
Why exactly would speed cameras be needed if people are obeying the limit? What purpose would it serve?


You get to nick the occasional nutter. That's the ONLY possible use for a speed camera.

ndp wrote:
Quote:
ndp wrote:
Maybe the fact people perceive speeding to be least dangerous on these sections of road is why people are coming to grief by driving too fast? (if that is happening)


Nope. It isn't happening. At least not in any normal places.


And you base this on what?


Hundreds of thousands of miles of driving experience. A long term interest in the subject and something around 14,000 hours on the safe Speed campaign.

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Our scrap speed cameras petition got over 28,000 sigs
The Safe Speed campaign demands a return to intelligent road safety


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2006 20:53 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
ndp wrote:
But we've been here before - surely the point of speed limits is to provide one mechanism to discourage inappropriate speed and deal with those who use speed inappropriately?


Yes. But that only applies to a minority of drivers - mostly inexperienced ones.


Cite?

Quote:
The problem is that most cases of inappropriate speed are well within the speed limit so the limit is useless for those.


That still leaves the rest.

Quote:
And worse still, too much emphasis on the limit is INCREASING inappropriate speed within the limit as folk switch to using the limit to set their speed.


Surely this is a failure of peoples driving and skills, rather than a failure of cameras?

I think if people are difficulty understanding HC Rule 104, then they shouldn't be on the road regardless of speed cameras.

Quote:
ndp wrote:
And of course, everyone has a different idea of acceptable risk - so we need to define what speed creates unacceptable risk so everyone knows where they stand.


Oh rubbish. There's no such 'external' defintion. Is 29mph safe?


Thats my point.

There is no definition, no absolute correct value. There is a choice for society - what speed is acceptable, and what isn't. Hence speed limits.

Quote:
ndp wrote:
But you wouldn't expand on them when asked, for instance, w.r.t. your so-far-unevidenced claim that the Dutch fatality figures are somehow dodgy.


That was hearsay and stated as such.


So there is extremely little to suggest that the Dutch approach (mandatory VSLs on autosnelwegs, 30km/h zones, 60 km/h zones, speed cameras hidden in wheelie bins etc) isn't working.

Quote:
ndp wrote:
How does your analysis of the impact of speed cameras in road works take into account variations in the nature of and inflows into road works?


Have you read TRL595? That's the only possible starting point.


We're not talking about TRL595 or the analysis of TRL - we're talking about your analysis of (some of) the data contained in TRL595 as detailed at http://www.safespeed.org.uk/trl595.html .

How does *your* (not TRL's) analysis of the impact of speed cameras in road works take into account variations in the nature of and inflows into road works?


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2006 21:41 
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ndp wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
ndp wrote:
How does your analysis of the impact of speed cameras in road works take into account variations in the nature of and inflows into road works?


Have you read TRL595? That's the only possible starting point.


We're not talking about TRL595 or the analysis of TRL...


Is that a 'no' then?

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2006 00:12 
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Despite the contrary being claimed by certain individuals, i maintain the following stance:

Speed limits should be set appropriately.

Speed limits should be set by unbiased professionals with foundations in road safety, and not be set because of political correctness.

The effectiveness of speed camera partnerships should be reviewed independently, not by those with a vested interest in generating revenue.

Accident causation data should be made available. (NB, this does not have to be actual accident reports ncp, a table of anonymised data would suffice.)

Until this occurs, intelligent indivduals will regard SCP data as propaganda, and quite rightfully so!


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2006 00:38 
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ndp wrote:
T2006 wrote:
ndp wrote:
T2006 wrote:
It is important to remove bias or hidden agenda when evaluating effectiveness of a speed camera or SCP. Surely you agree with that?


Of course.

How do we propose we do that?



A good start would be to stop SCPs from analysing their "own" statisics and reviewing their "own" performance.


Surely even if there was some sort of external auditing, SCPs should be able to evaluate their performance internally?

Quote:
Another step would be to give the raw data to an independent statistician. (yes, professionals can be independent and unbiased - trust me they're out there!)


But yet when the DfT does commission such a report (eg from PA Consulting Group and UCL) its simply derided ("well it was comissioned by the DfT, so it would say that")

So if the DfT cannot commission such an independant report, how is it to happen?

Quote:
Another step would be to stop using misleading KSI figures. Why not publish the two separately?


Because the random variation of fatal accidents is such that figures would fluctuate wildly, and thus the media and others would use these fluctuations to score points without considering this random variation.

Quote:
Another step would be to release raw accident causation statistics, making them freely available to all.


Of course, accident reports are not for SCPs to release.

Quote:
(Of couse, SCPs are not going to ever release such statistics unless they are forced to. Why would any £multi-million busness deliberately shoot itself in the foot?)


See above.


There is a branch of mathematics used to deal with the "Wild variations" you claim would result, if killed and seriously injured accidents were to be reported seperately.

Its called statistics, specifically statistical significance.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2006 09:21 
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I did have the whole paper but I think I may have deleted it now. I'll have a look later.

Found an article in the bmj that may be of interest:
http://ip.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/4/2/89


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2006 14:17 
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ndp wrote:
basingwerk wrote:
As for the "engineering changes to the road", I have no problem with narrowing roads with stout iron or concrete bollards, as they have done in London. These are far scarier to perps than road humps, and many of them have lots of paint on them, showing that they creating employment in bodyshops!


This is a good point.

When roads are re-engineered to reduce the perceived safe speed - Safe Speeders moan about it!


So you support the placing of artificial obstructions in the road which demonstrably cause collissions. This is the sort of Alice in Wonderland thinking that characterises road saftey in this country at the moment.


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