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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 16:23 
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SafeSpeed Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2004 7:22 am
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If you can find a flaw in my work, then please point it out. It's all laid out on the web for examination. There's a promise to correct errors if any are discovered. I'll stand by that with a passion.

Finally, I don't dodge questions. If you think I missed something, then please ask me again, but please stick to discussing the issues. Personal attacks are not acceptable.

Could you answer these for me?
If the 85th/90th percentile speed for a road is the speed you believe is the safest, could you evidence this by data based research as my ‘Googlesearch’ you advised brought this up.
Quote:
Since the 1950s, American traffic engineers have been taught the 85th Percentile Rule, which claims that the maximum speed limit on a previously unrestricted road should be set to the speed below which 85% of vehicles are traveling. The 85th percentile closely corresponds to one standard deviation above the mean of a normal distribution. This rule has been used for many years, yet no scientific evidence has been produced that this particular rule is safer than any other.


Ie I'd like to know why the 50th or 70th percentile speed is deemed less safe.


Could you also let me know if your definition of the 85th/90th percentile speed as the safest means that you would not advocate any speed above this on the basis that it is by definition less safe?

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 16:37 
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Orange Posted: Fri Sep 17, 2004 4:27 pm
& Posted: Fri Sep 17, 2004 5:15 pm
Quote:
Soren
Quote:
You’ll also be the blue moon speeder who restrains himself to 2 or 3 seconds behind the car he’s following in the fast lane, in order not to intimidate. It just doesn’t happen mate!

So now, having never witnessed my driving, you are assuming that I tailgate in the fast lane? That behaviour has nothing to do with speed -- on busy motorways sometimes the fast lane is full with tailgaters all doing 60 mph. Well within the speed limit, but if one of them makes a mistake, a pile-up is the result
.


Didn’t make that assumption of you Orange, almost everyone else perhaps, and as was correctly implied, your 60 mile per hour fast lane mob tailgating – for one ourpose – 3 minutes saved!
Is it worth it?
Remove the desire to speed and you lose the very problem you’re outlining. – probably cut down on queues too!

Quote:
It seems that you still aren't able to grasp the difference between aggressive driving, and normal driving that is simply in excess of the speed limit.

This is the thing that really annoys me about the current road safety policy. Speed is important, definitely -- especially in urban areas. But on motorways and dual carriageways, tailgating is far more dangerous than exceeding the speed limit.

This is my impression;
If I’m in the outside lane of the motorway at 70mph and speeder comes up behind me at 85 – 90+mph
    90% likelihood he’ll approach well within 2 secs of me.
    50% likelihood he’ll approach within 1 sec of me
    33% chance he’ll approach within .5 sec of me.
If I grant the motorist I’m passing some courtesy and provide a 2 second gap before I move in (don’t do that very often – it aint worth the hassle)
    80% likelihood tailgating speeder will close on me (quite significantly).
    25% likelihood he’ll flash
    33% likelihood I’ll get a stare when he passes.


I call that aggression and intimidation. The tw*t in the beemer might not realise it.
That wouldn’t surprise anyone.
Aggression, pure and simple.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 16:40 
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Rigpig Posted: Fri Sep 17, 2004 6:20 pm

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I agree with this orange, most tailgaters don't realise they are doing anything potentially hazardous. It is therefore odd to assert that drivers who routinely make no attempt to obey the speed limit are any different because they aren't They are no more aware of the hazard they are presenting to themselves and others than the mindless tailgater is - they are driving in the same frame of mind - autopilot.


Precisely, your motorway speeders generally have their brains in neutral. More concentration and awareness is required to drive at 55 to 70 rather than 90. Try it, you’ll realise you have to concentrate to keep the speeders from blocking your progress, - you’re much more all round aware.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 17:02 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
But it's not just the count of cameras is it? It's the official approach to road safety that goes with the cameras. It's policy that changed in 1993 or so, and it's policy that's doing the damage.


Over the life of several governments – perhaps it is a conspiracy.

SafeSpeed wrote:
Anyway the deviation from former trend is very closely correlated with camera convictions. Have you seen this:


Your graph shows two independent near linear progressions, It is a trivial matter to make any two linear progressions correlate by basing them from zero and using a scaling factor, both of which you have done. But it is a fiddle because the graph still shows two independent linear progressions.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 17:07 
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courtesy of http://sense.bc.ca/research.htm
A couple more questions on the above chart Mr Smith
I note that according to the chart, if you drive at 50km/h or 30mph less than the 85th percentile speed (presumably 50mph on the motorway) you would be involved in something like 25000 involvements per 100m vehicle miles whereas if you were travelling at 85th percentile speed you would be involved only approximately 70 times. That would indicate that the slower driver is about 350 times more likely to be involved than the chap who sticks to the 85th percentile speed.
Do you believe this?

Could you also fill the bones of the above chart regarding the seriousness of the involvements at the above speeds? Specifically the number of fataccs relevant for each percentile group speed. This is obviously much more relevant than simply documenting frequency of involvement.

You have also been quoted as saying that there is a road in your area which you are safe to drive at 150mph. Where is this road and is this your 85th percentile speed for that road?

Safespeed Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2004 8:01 am
Quote:
15mph differential is at around the bottom of the optimal range for typical motorway lane widths and circumstances, with 15 to 25mph differential offering minimum danger.

This soundbite will have a scientifically researched source. Could you enlighten me?

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 17:44 
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The risk of collision graph isn't really valid on it's own for making assessments of the validity of reduced speed impact on a casualty reduction strategy.
The reduction of speed would most probably have some effect on lowering the risk of a collision but that "some" would probably be small.
What has been ignored by Smith, this is not unusual, is the following significant facts:
    1. How many drivers know what the 85th, 90th or average speed of a road is? NONE (even him)
    2. The reduction of the CASUALTY SEVERITY from REDUCED SPEED is not taken into account in this graph. It most certainly should be as a reduction in speed in a collision has a signifigant, nay great, effect on the reduction in the severity of the consequent injuries sustained.
    3. The risk rises rapidly as speed increases above the 90th percentile speed. As even the most experienced of drivers have no idea what this is it wouldn't be a good idea to let any level of driver use speed as Smith suggests. Perhaps they could with alittle guidance. Hey! Why not post up roughly what the 85th percentile speed is and call it a speed limit?

So there you go, the graph has something to say but taken on it's own is insignificant as far as casualty reduction is concerned. Yet again a small part of someones research is used to purport a pre-conceived conclusion in an attempt to reduce safety on the roads.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 17:54 
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In Gear Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 1:28 pm
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basingwerk - mate --- repeating myself from the other page on this topic --- but we seem to do fine without cameras where I am.

You get your fine's worth from a run-in with us .... acid lecture in road safety and dangers of OTT speeding.....plus a fine sometimes. Sometimes we even insist they spend night in the cells and go to court.... They really get their money's worth then. Bed and breakfast, very strong tea in the morning, cornflakes ... toast the works! What more could you wish for? Admit - the camp bed is a bit worse for wear and the toilet facilities leave a lot to be desired - but still - it is free.....

Guess what - it works! Lowest accident rate in UK, and we do catch and ticket the really bad drivers. We actually target tailgaters, lane hoggers and all those people you dislike so much.

What county is that, In Gear, and what defines lowest accident rates? Is it fataccs per reported accident, accidents per vehicle mile, accidents per road mile, etc?
You are describing your job, which is with respect, what you are paid to do. The camera boys are paid to keep motorists speeds down to the legal limit, the law which you also should be required to administer at least to your ACPO guidelines.

Can you give me your impression of sense of fairness when you hear one person saying that he got a ticket at 42mph in a thirty, fair cop, and another who’s bragging he got off at 44 on the same stretch of road at the same time. Both from our BiB.
Are you entirely comfortable with this discretion lottery?

Quote:
Why on earth should someone who overspeeds by 2mph get a criminal record and someone who pinches something get a fine and no record? The overspeed of 2mph does not cause harm. The pinching of item from a shop - is depriving the shopkkeeper of part of his earnings, his property, hikes up his insurance costs - and we all end up paying for this in form of increased costs for goods. To me - that is crime worthy of a criminal record - and not a trivial overspeed of nonsensical amounts.


Interesting euphemism - 'overspeeds'. :wink:

To clarify this, In Gear, are you saying that someone who speeds has this registered on the National Criminal Record database so that when you check up someone’s details on the police computer it will highlight this or if you try to get a job where CRB details are requested, your speeding conviction will be there on record. I really didn’t think this was the case.
Additionally are you saying that shoplifting convictions will not be deemed to be criminal, and bypass the CRB?

Also how can you say that the overspeed of 2mph does not cause harm. What do you define as harm, and what evidence do you have to justify your claim.
Is it also not the case that the shoplifter may be shoplifting to feed a drug habit which his upbringing and enforced social deprivation has led him into. Not a defence particularly, but an understanding of why he does it. I think the motives for the offence of speeding are a tad more selfish.
I get a bit of a feeling that your policing doctrine is a little middle class supportive, pandering to those people you like to appeal to.
Perhaps the re-emphasis of offences like shoplifting is being driven to engender a more rounded understanding overview of offences by the police. An understanding of the problems and inclusion of all social classes is important for all society.
It will in the long term probably help your fatacc figures too. :wink:

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 22:10 
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Søren wrote:
Also how can you say that the overspeed of 2mph does not cause harm. What do you define as harm, and what evidence do you have to justify your claim.


What evidence do you have to justify your implicit claim that a 2mph overspeed does cause harm?

Søren wrote:
Is it also not the case that the shoplifter may be shoplifting to feed a drug habit which his upbringing and enforced social deprivation has led him into. Not a defence particularly, but an understanding of why he does it. I think the motives for the offence of speeding are a tad more selfish.


Are you now going to blame the brutal beating to death of defenceless old ladies - for a few quid to feed a drug habit - on social deprivation?
I was brought up in a poor neighbourhood, but I made something of myself - so I have little sympathy for those toerags.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 22:17 
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Søren wrote:
Could you answer these for me?
If the 85th/90th percentile speed for a road is the speed you believe is the safest, could you evidence this by data based research as my ‘Googlesearch’ you advised brought this up.
Quote:
Since the 1950s, American traffic engineers have been taught the 85th Percentile Rule, which claims that the maximum speed limit on a previously unrestricted road should be set to the speed below which 85% of vehicles are traveling. The 85th percentile closely corresponds to one standard deviation above the mean of a normal distribution. This rule has been used for many years, yet no scientific evidence has been produced that this particular rule is safer than any other.


Ie I'd like to know why the 50th or 70th percentile speed is deemed less safe.


So why then do you advocate the setting of limits to the 50th or 70th percentile speeds, when there's no scientific evidence that the 85th percentile speed is any less safe? If there is such evidence, what makes you think that they wouldn't be shouting it from the rooftops?


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 22:50 
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Søren wrote:
SafeSpeed Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2004 7:22 am
Quote:
Finally, I don't dodge questions. If you think I missed something, then please ask me again, but please stick to discussing the issues. Personal attacks are not acceptable.

I’ll try best I can to tone down my postings


:? :? :?

You mean tone down the general daftness such as what I have read from you so far .... :wink:

saddo sorry one wrote:
I do however struggle against some of the more interesting revelations about your psyche, Mr Smith.
As in a recent forum discussion about disabled parking
Quote:
>... that disabled people have one privilege
>over you compared to the privilege of mobility you have over them? I bet
>if they were given the choice, I know which they would choose.


reply
If they get one privilege, then another, then another, pretty soon
I'll be a second class citizen brought down to their level. Is that
right? I don't think so.
Where can anyone draw the line?
[snip]
--
Paul Smith
Scotland, UK
http://www.safespeed.org.uk
please remove "XYZ" to reply by email
speed cameras cost lives


Had disabled badge some years ago - as it was required for my own wife during a recovery from serious injury. What we noted was so-called other disabled were less than polite - and all too often I found I had to park up in "normal bays" as the not very disabled (ie perfectly firt to work but bone ******** idle brigade) nabbed to spaces. Another thing which my wife noted was that people talked to her very slowly and very loudly and this had nowt to do with her "foreignness"

Sad fact of life that we grant privileges to people who quite frankly do not deserve it as they play the system. These people defraud all us who contribute to welfare system and well as the genuine who really need this help. Thos who defraud are also more likely to belong to the chancers who defraud us all on matter of insurance, and other legal documentation. These are not second class citizens - that term is just too good for them..... I have another - but it would not be appropriate to use here ..... :roll: :twisted:

saddo Sorry one wrote:
Also from the bike zone
Quote:
The Spectator
10 January 2004

http://www.spectator.co.uk

Driving fast is dangerous, says Ross Clark, and the middle classes should stop whining about attempts to slow them down.

I am beginning to feel a bit lonely among fellow columnists. I do not have a speeding conviction upon which to vent spleen. Maybe one of these days I will notice a flash in my rear-view mirror, followed by a brown envelope in the post, and I will be ranting with the best of them: Simon Jenkins in the Times, Alan Judd in this magazine and almost everyone, every day, in the Daily Telegraph. But somehow I doubt it. I don’t seem to have a great deal of trouble adjusting the speed of my Peugeot to limits which, if anything, err rather too much on the liberal side.

The above-mentioned gentlemen represent the civilised end of the anti-camera lobby. There is a more sinister end. Last month Mary Williams, who founded a road-safety pressure group Brake after her mother and boyfriend were killed by speeding motorists in separate incidents, received death threats via a motorists’ website, Pistonheads.com. One user of the site posted a note suggesting that her brake cables be cut; another described her as a witch who should be burned at the stake. Her crime was to appear on television to defend speed cameras. Invited to denounce the comments, Paul Smith, the founder of motorists’ pressure group SafeSpeed, remarked, ‘Mary Williams is a dangerous character because she supports a fatally flawed policy. The comments made about her are mild reactions, quite frankly.’


I used to be a member of BRAKE.... as did all members of this family. Whilst we would not undermine nor deny credit in certain areas - such as improving car repair garages and bringing subjects of driving whilst tired, under influence of any kind of drug - precription or illegal - the attitude towards speed leaves a lot to be desired.... I have already touched on what angered us and caused our exit from BRAKE in the past - and it was asking us to participate in a "Speed Kills" campaign and using some photos... and the accidents which hit this family HARD had nothing at at all to do with SPEED! Both were freak non-faults and (the one which killed my wife's cousin) was very similar to the one which killed Mary's mother.

What angers people about Mary is not so much her opinions such as they are - but the way she delivers them - with a certain amount of "gloat and smug" as if she enjoys her 5 minutes of fame on the goggle box. I would have much more time for her if she lost the attitude....and focused her attention on promoting the Green Cross Code, importance of being seen in the dark, and encouraged driver training. She did pour scorn on the "Speed Awareness" course which some offer. Somebody into road safety should be pro this - and I will say that Paul has some sound advice on this site on dealing with tailgaters, braking, etc - and does have a forum which encourages us to discuss safety issues and how best to deal with them. Lot of sound advice on there - and extracts for HC, Road Craft and some advice from a cop. The same actually applies to the PH site - where hatched markings, single carriageway v dual carriageway, winter driving were all discussed in detail by POLICEMEN and ordinary Joes and Josephines even like us....

People have flamed IG, myself and my wife on these fora in the past - but taking a comment (agreed made in bad taste) does not constitute a death threat and to react otherwise leads me to diagnose PMT or MENOPAUSE! :wink:

Of course - we should strive to improve the skill here and encourge people to be aware of their drive and get into habit of evaluating each drive objectively. We can only do this if we hammer this instead of tired old dogma about virtues of PC Gatso


sad sorryone wrote:
Add this to the Leader of this thread which prompted me from browsing to posting. This is a very insensitive attempt to try to blame the death of a person on a speed camera.
My retort was to highlight this insensitivity by identifying a likely opposing set of circumstances in a similarly insensitive way.


Have commented in the past that death rates are increasing in Lancs despite forest of scameras - and not seen that much in crunch reduction overall. Base that on professional knowledge .... :roll: :cry:

sorryone wrote:
If you wish not to have 'second class citizens' posting on your form let me know, and I'll hobble off into the corner I should never have come out of. :evil:


Do not get all wound up by fact I have played with your name :wink: I am always doing this .......dunno why..... :roll:

Must be because you are healthy muesli muncher ..... you need to ditch the lycra, get of your bike and into a car - but not a Robin Reliant ... :lol:


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 23:01 
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Søren wrote:
Rigpig Posted: Fri Sep 17, 2004 6:20 pm

Quote:
I agree with this orange, most tailgaters don't realise they are doing anything potentially hazardous. It is therefore odd to assert that drivers who routinely make no attempt to obey the speed limit are any different because they aren't They are no more aware of the hazard they are presenting to themselves and others than the mindless tailgater is - they are driving in the same frame of mind - autopilot.


Precisely, your motorway speeders generally have their brains in neutral. More concentration and awareness is required to drive at 55 to 70 rather than 90. Try it, you’ll realise you have to concentrate to keep the speeders from blocking your progress, - you’re much more all round aware.


I have driven at speed of 120 mph in Germany and my wife is usally in excess of this when over there..... (on the deristricted bits of course ....)

Believe me - you have to concentrate hard and be aware of what is coming up even faster behind you in a stealth Merc ....

But in any case old Sorry One in an anorak .... :twisted: you should be concentrating, observing, anticipating and allowing space and time (for both driving and - er - :wink: ) so what speed you drive at.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 23:17 
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Pete317 wrote:
Søren wrote:
Also how can you say that the overspeed of 2mph does not cause harm. What do you define as harm, and what evidence do you have to justify your claim.


What evidence do you have to justify your implicit claim that a 2mph overspeed does cause harm?


In my case ....

The evidence of actually working in A&E at some stage in my career and conversing and liaising with those guys on regular basis.....

IG will no doubt give you his take on this - from mopping up accidents....

See him regulary as he is my wife's cous and only lives just across A66 from me .....

Sad old Sorry one wrote:
Is it also not the case that the shoplifter may be shoplifting to feed a drug habit which his upbringing and enforced social deprivation has led him into. Not a defence particularly, but an understanding of why he does it. I think the motives for the offence of speeding are a tad more selfish.



Oh PLEASE! Hope you are not going to suggest legalise this stuff. My wife's cousin (works A&E) had addict die on him in childbirth and baby died hours later..... I myself have a four year old foster child who was born an addict because his mother was one and she overdosed later....

Addict steals to feed a habit and for very selfish reasons the personal high, frisson, sexual kick, feeling of an orgasm, Read Scamera Shy's input on the Nonny forum .


Speeding can be down to a number of factors - car picks up velocity on certain road surfaces, cambers, crowns, gradients and even type of tyre can affect speedo reading. The scammers know about this and place speed trap at speed limit changes, and points in road where they know speed will pick up briefly and care not that driver corrected this error yards after being zapped by talivan.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 23:26 
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Mad Moggie wrote:
Søren wrote:
Rigpig Posted: Fri Sep 17, 2004 6:20 pm

Quote:
I agree with this orange, most tailgaters don't realise they are doing anything potentially hazardous. It is therefore odd to assert that drivers who routinely make no attempt to obey the speed limit are any different because they aren't They are no more aware of the hazard they are presenting to themselves and others than the mindless tailgater is - they are driving in the same frame of mind - autopilot.


Precisely, your motorway speeders generally have their brains in neutral. More concentration and awareness is required to drive at 55 to 70 rather than 90. Try it, you’ll realise you have to concentrate to keep the speeders from blocking your progress, - you’re much more all round aware.


I have driven at speed of 120 mph in Germany and my wife is usally in excess of this when over there..... (on the deristricted bits of course ....)

Believe me - you have to concentrate hard and be aware of what is coming up even faster behind you in a stealth Merc ....

But in any case old Sorry One in an anorak .... :twisted: you should be concentrating, observing, anticipating and allowing space and time (for both driving and - er - :wink: ) so what speed you drive at.


Mad Mogster - you are an advanced driver and clearly have a lot of experience driving in the UK and abroad as does your good lady.
Unfortunately your own skills and experience don't relate to those of yer average 'thumb in bum' UK driver who generally gives as much thought (I mean conscious sentient thought) to their driving as they do drawing their next breath.
So yes, of course you should concentrate and do all the good stuff, but does Mondeo Man? Not if my experiences of drivers charging up behind traffic that is obviously slowing (brake lights ahead are usually a good sign of this) is anything to go by.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 23:39 
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Rigpig wrote:
Mad Moggie wrote:
Søren wrote:
Rigpig Posted: Fri Sep 17, 2004 6:20 pm

Quote:
I agree with this orange, most tailgaters don't realise they are doing anything potentially hazardous. It is therefore odd to assert that drivers who routinely make no attempt to obey the speed limit are any different because they aren't They are no more aware of the hazard they are presenting to themselves and others than the mindless tailgater is - they are driving in the same frame of mind - autopilot.


Precisely, your motorway speeders generally have their brains in neutral. More concentration and awareness is required to drive at 55 to 70 rather than 90. Try it, you’ll realise you have to concentrate to keep the speeders from blocking your progress, - you’re much more all round aware.


I have driven at speed of 120 mph in Germany and my wife is usally in excess of this when over there..... (on the deristricted bits of course ....)

Believe me - you have to concentrate hard and be aware of what is coming up even faster behind you in a stealth Merc ....

But in any case old Sorry One in an anorak .... :twisted: you should be concentrating, observing, anticipating and allowing space and time (for both driving and - er - :wink: ) so what speed you drive at.


Mad Mogster - you are an advanced driver and clearly have a lot of experience driving in the UK and abroad as does your good lady.
Unfortunately your own skills and experience don't relate to those of yer average 'thumb in bum' UK driver who generally gives as much thought (I mean conscious sentient thought) to their driving as they do drawing their next breath.
So yes, of course you should concentrate and do all the good stuff, but does Mondeo Man? Not if my experiences of drivers charging up behind traffic that is obviously slowing (brake lights ahead are usually a good sign of this) is anything to go by.



Rigpig - they nearly killed him on PH when he told a BiB that he must have been driving too close if he nearly ended up in car in front.

I am going to start up a thread on this anyway.....as Soren and basingwerk and my mate - Will - (who really believes I cannot drive ) exploit it to the full.

As for the Mad Cats' driving abilities - they really are quite good drivers.... ;)


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Søren wrote:
What county is that, In Gear, and what defines lowest accident rates? Is it fataccs per reported accident, accidents per vehicle mile, accidents per road mile, etc?


Durrum! :lol: Our stats are available for all to see and to compare.


Soren wrote:
You are describing your job, which is with respect, what you are paid to do. The camera boys are paid to keep motorists speeds down to the legal limit, the law which you also should be required to administer at least to your ACPO guidelines.

Can you give me your impression of sense of fairness when you hear one person saying that he got a ticket at 42mph in a thirty, fair cop, and another who’s bragging he got off at 44 on the same stretch of road at the same time. Both from our BiB.
Are you entirely comfortable with this discretion lottery?


And you stand more chance of getting a ticket in Lancs, TVP, Wales and Cambs than anywhere else in UK. And margins are not static either. Lancs, TVP and Speed Course alternatives set lower margin than elsewhere

As for your example my discretion does depend on other factors of the drive I witnessed. bad overtake, cut up, close shave with another road user, near miss, poor handling of car, poor state of car, weather conditions - are tip of iceberg of things we take into account on a pull for offence.
Soren wrote:
Quote:
Why on earth should someone who overspeeds by 2mph get a criminal record and someone who pinches something get a fine and no record? The overspeed of 2mph does not cause harm. The pinching of item from a shop - is depriving the shopkkeeper of part of his earnings, his property, hikes up his insurance costs - and we all end up paying for this in form of increased costs for goods. To me - that is crime worthy of a criminal record - and not a trivial overspeed of nonsensical amounts.


Interesting euphemism - 'overspeeds'. :wink:

To clarify this, In Gear, are you saying that someone who speeds has this registered on the National Criminal Record database so that when you check up someone’s details on the police computer it will highlight this or if you try to get a job where CRB details are requested, your speeding conviction will be there on record. I really didn’t think this was the case.
Additionally are you saying that shoplifting convictions will not be deemed to be criminal, and bypass the CRB?


Unfortunately, it goes on a database record. My daughter applied for a student job and question under police convictions (for part time job in a shop included speed offences - even though she would be serving in a shop - a high street store) and not driving a vehicle of any description. Incidentally, my daughter is a brand new driver and no skeletons in closet.

New guidelines being proposed by Blunderkit will simply issue fixed penalty fine to shoplifters and no criminal record at all.

Complete madness and more proof that the bunch in power are completely bonkers. :roll:

Add this to the change in drinking laws and not hard to imagine how further down the depths of anarchy and depravity we will go.

Soren wrote:
Also how can you say that the overspeed of 2mph does not cause harm. What do you define as harm, and what evidence do you have to justify your claim.


Lot of experience investigating accidents and mopping up debri, recovering limbs ..... there is a big difference between a slight overspeed which is more nitpicking and a deliberate sustained overspeed of - say - 8 and much more mph above speed limit. 32 mph does very little more damage than 30 mph - but a lot does depend on point of impact no matter what speed.

The main focus should be on hazard awareness and perception - ie use of COAST :wink:

soren wrote:
Is it also not the case that the shoplifter may be shoplifting to feed a drug habit which his upbringing and enforced social deprivation has led him into. Not a defence particularly, but an understanding of why he does it. I think the motives for the offence of speeding are a tad more selfish.


The Mad Doc has already passed comment on this - there is the puely selfish desire to experience the "hit and lift" of the drug and craving to repeat the euphoria leads to ultimate addidction. That is selfish.

Imagine these people behind the wheel of a car - and let me tell you that RTCs in my patch - usually down to drunks and drugs in North of county where we border a notorious crime spot....

Imagine finding these people's bodies in seedy derelict area where they died on their own vomit - and even if you try to help them - they ain't interested in anything other than the next fix.

You would come back with argument for legalisation. You could not expect taxpayer to provide this on NHS. And if we taxed it a premium rate - crime would escalate to pay for the "luxury item".

Like driving - solution lies to extent in better education and remedial help - in case of most normal drivers - this would work and in case of junky - we have a bigger problem - naturally.

soren wrote:
I get a bit of a feeling that your policing doctrine is a little middle class supportive, pandering to those people you like to appeal to.


They pay my wages. :wink: I am not a social worker - I am employed to protect people from criminals, and try to keep things as safe as possible - using reason, logic and common sense.

Of course - we get the appropriate services in to help us sort out the chavs and their problems - and we have to keep calm and treeat all with respect and dignity (which ain't easy if they attack you...)

soren wrote:
Perhaps the re-emphasis of offences like shoplifting is being driven to engender a more rounded understanding overview of offences by the police. An understanding of the problems and inclusion of all social classes is important for all society.
It will in the long term probably help your fatacc figures too. :wink:



We do take rounded overview - but the chavs and scrotes take full advantage ...and sentencing is still down to mags, judges and their bench book guidelines. :roll:


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2004 07:57 
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Mad Moggie wrote:
Pete317 wrote:
What evidence do you have to justify your implicit claim that a 2mph overspeed does cause harm?


In my case ....

The evidence of actually working in A&E at some stage in my career and conversing and liaising with those guys on regular basis.....

IG will no doubt give you his take on this - from mopping up accidents....


MM, if you have good evidence that shows that 2mph over the speed limit is inherently dangerous, please share it with us.
Or did you perhaps misunderstand me?

Regards
Peter


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2004 09:28 
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In Gear wrote:
Rigpig - they nearly killed him on PH when he told a BiB that he must have been driving too close if he nearly ended up in car in front.

I am going to start up a thread on this anyway.....as Soren and basingwerk and my mate - Will - (who really believes I cannot drive ) exploit it to the full.


:| What do you mean - who was MM indicating was in the wrong. The BiB or the drivers who failed to notice an emergency vehicle behind them?

In Gear wrote:
As for the Mad Cats' driving abilities - they really are quite good drivers.... ;)


Er, that's why I said isn't it? :? I wasn't being sarcastic or anything, I meant it :wink:


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:04 
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Søren wrote:
SafeSpeed Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2004 7:22 am
Quote:
Finally, I don't dodge questions. If you think I missed something, then please ask me again, but please stick to discussing the issues. Personal attacks are not acceptable.

I?ll try best I can to tone down my postings

I do however struggle against some of the more interesting revelations about your psyche, Mr Smith.


Your assessments about "my psyche" are wrong.

I questioned the philosophical foundations of disabled parking. No more and no less. I'm proud to question the foundations of beliefs. The most interesting thing to come out of the Usenet thread you cited is that no one was able to define the foundations or the limits of disabled parking provision.

The "death threats" episode was based on nothing at all because there never were any death threats.

I've already explained the claims page. It's an argument database and not assertion.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:08 
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Søren wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
basingwerk wrote:
The only sign is a departure from a graph (deaths against miles travelled) which includes data from 1950. If the data of only the last 20 years is included, the departure from the graph occurs before the mass introduction of cameras. Don't forget that until 1996, there were only a few hundred cameras in the country, yet the curves (which appears to be the main plank SafeSpeed's case) alters abruptly in 1993, making it much less clearly linked to cameras. It is not evident that strict enforcement is counter productive.


But it's not just the count of cameras is it? It's the official approach to road safety that goes with the cameras. It's policy that changed in 1993 or so, and it's policy that's doing the damage.

Anyway the deviation from former trend is very closely correlated with camera convictions. Have you seen this:

Image

from:
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/fatality.html

It was many weeks after I had published the "fatality" page that I spotted this close correlation - so don't go accusing me of bending the data to fit a preconception. (not that you would, of course... :) )

I guess the red columns could apply to the increase in numbers of big macs sold since 1993, and the increase in numbers of fatalities could be caused by people speeding to macdonalds to get there before it closes. :roll:


Except they don't do they? They represent speed camera convictions, and speeding convictions by camera are amazingly well correlated with the "fatality gap". Certainly correlation does not imply causation, but it's a very well fitting part of the jigsaw.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:23 
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Søren wrote:
SafeSpeed Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2004 7:22 am
Quote:
If you can find a flaw in my work, then please point it out. It's all laid out on the web for examination. There's a promise to correct errors if any are discovered. I'll stand by that with a passion.

Finally, I don't dodge questions. If you think I missed something, then please ask me again, but please stick to discussing the issues. Personal attacks are not acceptable.

Could you answer these for me?
If the 85th/90th percentile speed for a road is the speed you believe is the safest, could you evidence this by data based research as my ?Googlesearch? you advised brought this up.
Quote:
Since the 1950s, American traffic engineers have been taught the 85th Percentile Rule, which claims that the maximum speed limit on a previously unrestricted road should be set to the speed below which 85% of vehicles are traveling. The 85th percentile closely corresponds to one standard deviation above the mean of a normal distribution. This rule has been used for many years, yet no scientific evidence has been produced that this particular rule is safer than any other.


The reference is wrong. Scientific evidence goes back to two research papers by Soloman in 1958(?) and 1963. Solomans reseach has been repeated time and again, but because of the age of the work, none of it is reproduced on the Internet. However, we can find a lot of references to the sucess of speed limits based on the 85th percentile principle.

Søren wrote:
Ie I'd like to know why the 50th or 70th percentile speed is deemed less safe.

Could you also let me know if your definition of the 85th/90th percentile speed as the safest means that you would not advocate any speed above this on the basis that it is by definition less safe?


Speeds above or below the 85th percentile are not less safe when applied to an individual. They are only less safe when applied to average populations. As one trivial example, above the 85th percentile speed we mainly find two groups of drivers - nutters (who have a very high accident rate and frequently use speed unsafely) and experts (who do not have a high accident rate and who do not use speed unsafely).

The speed risk relationship shown in the curve tells us nothing about the safety of a speed. What it does tell us about is the underlying relationships:

1) driver quality > speed
2) driver quality > accident rate

It follows that we don't much alter a driver's risk by altering his speed, and certainly not along the speed risk curve. The risk stays with the individual.

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