NEWS: For immediate release

The recent official report on the benefits of UK speed cameras is totally unjustified in its headline conclusions, says Safe Speed.

The largest problem arises from the naturally random distribution of road accidents, and the rule that requires cameras to be placed where there have been a high level of accidents over a fairly short period.

When a camera is placed where there has been a temporary upward blip in accident figures, we should not be surprised that the blip does not recur. Such placement appear to be extremely commonplace and the effect results in an illusion of benefit. Even genuine accident black spots are most likely to receive a camera after an especially bad spell.

Safe Speed has written to Professor Ben Heydecker, the report's apparent lead author, demanding his resignation and the withdrawal of the report.

Paul Smith, founder of the Safe Speed road safety campaign, explains: "This error is well known to statisticians, road safety professionals and the Department for Transport (DfT) as "regression to the mean". In
fact the DfT even publish warnings and correction methods in their "Road Safety Good Practice Guide". It is shameful that this error has been allowed to remain, uncorrected and unannounced, in the new official report."

Paul continues: "Last year's report contained the same error, and Professor Heydecker admitted as much on the BBC Radio 4 programme "more or less". It is all the more shameful then, that the error has been repeated in the new report."

Make no mistake. This is a huge error. In a well known study of 2,500 crossroads in Sweden, it was noted that those junctions left untreated showed an improvement in accidents of more than 50%. If a similar error exists at UK speed camera sites, and it might well, then the truth could be that speed cameras caused a 10% increase in killed and seriously injured accidents at speed camera sites.

"The problem with regression to the mean", explains Paul, "is that accidents may not be reducing at all. They simply take place somewhere else. That is exactly what seems to be happening especially to our fatal road accidents."

<ends>

Notes for editors.

Letter to Professor Heydecker: 
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/heydecker2.html

Regression to the mean primer:
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/rttm.html

Previous letters to Professor Heydecker regarding last year's report:
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/heydecker.html

Professor Heydecker and Regression to the mean on Radio 4, 29th January 2004, full transcript and audio available:
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/moreorless.html

DfT Report: "The national safety camera programme: Three-year evaluation report":
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_rdsafety/documents/downloadable/dft_rdsafety_029194.pdf

DfT Road Safety Good Practice Guide:
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_rdsafety/documents/page/dft_rdsafety_504564-06.hcsp

* UK road deaths have not fallen since 1998. In Germany road deaths
have fallen by 25% in the same period.
 
 

About Safe Speed:

Since setting up Safe Speed in 2001, Paul Smith, 49, an advanced motorist and road safety enthusiast, and a professional engineer of 25 years UK experience, has carried out about 5,000 hours of research into the
overall effects of speed camera policy on UK road safety. We believe that this is more work in more detail than anything carried out by any other organisation. Paul's surprising conclusion is that overall speed cameras
make our roads more dangerous. Paul has identified and reported a number of major flaws and false assumptions in the claims made for speed cameras, and the whole "speed kills"  system of road safety.     

The inescapable conclusion is that we should urgently return to the excellent road safety policies that gave us in the UK the safest roads in the World in the first place.     

Safe Speed does not campaign against speed limits or appropriate enforcement of motoring laws, but argues vigorously that automated speed enforcement is neither safe nor appropriate.     
      

Contact Safe Speed:     

web: http://www.safespeed.org.uk     
email : psmith@safespeed.org.uk    
telephone: 01862 832000 anytime.     
mobile: 07799 045553     
note: the mobile does not work well at our office. Always try land line first.     
Location: North Scotland     

We are available for press and media interviews.